Almost one year after the election of Barack Obama, and one year to the midterm congressional elections of 2010, the President and his party face a major challenge that is rapidly becoming a crisis: losing the mandate they gained.
Left wing Democrats are disillusioned over the health care controversy, particularly over the growing odds that the public option might not survive. Also, the debate over sending more troops to Afghanistan is turning off many of these Democrats, who want us to withdraw from that nation.
Independents are becoming more antagonistic over the growing deficit, the constantly growing unemployment and foreclosure crisis, the health care controversy and how it will affect those who have good health care, and the concern that too much is being attempted too soon by the administration.
At the same time, one third of the nation is totally alienated from Obama and his party, seeing him as radical and extreme and dangerous to the country. Many of these people are so rebellious, however, that even the Republicans cannot count on their support, as evidenced by the Republican nominee in the northwest New York congressional district special election having to contend with a much more conservative opponent, therefore for now favoring the Democratic nominee in a district solidly Republican.
So unless the Republicans can somehow attract these rebellious voters back to their party and draw a lot of independent support, the Democrats might yet keep a lot of their congressional majority. This is the major issue for 2010, and at this juncture, one cannot forecast the new Congress for 2011-2012.