Day: November 8, 2009

A Different Way Of Analyzing Tuesday’s Election Results

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While the Republicans are celebrating their gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday, if one looks at special elections in House districts since the election of 2008, things look quite differently.

Not only did the Democrats win NY 23 for the first time since the Presidency of Ulysses S. Grant in the 1870s, but also they have won a vacancy in a California seat, and also earlier in Louisiana, Mississippi and Illinois, since Barack Obama became President.

The fact that they won open seats in New York and California on Tuesday allowed their margin of victory on the health care legislation last night to be 220-215, rather than 218-217, the absolutely bare margin needed for passage.

In the long run, winning the House vacancies is more significant for national politics than the losing of governorships in states that have recently demonstrated that they have gone for the party out of the White House a year after the presidential election for 20 straight years in both states, and actually 32 straight years in Virginia.

The difficult economy is bound to affect governors of both parties, as higher unemployment and greater numbers of foreclosures, leading to budget cuts in public services, naturally creates a political nightmare for governors, who bear the brunt of the blame for the downturn.

So while the Republicans celebrate their triumphs, the Democrats also have a lot to celebrate–five Democratic wins in the past year in special House elections!

The House Passage Of Health Care: What It Means

Ronald 1 Comment

Late last evening, the House of Representatives passed the health care reform legislation by a vote of 220-215, with one Republican vote, a Vietnamese representative from New Orleans, but with 39 Democrats voting with 176 Republicans in opposition.

Winning by only two extra votes than a bare majority, the House leadership celebrated the victory, but it is no guarantee that any health care legislation will pass this year.

Now the Senate will consider its own version of health care reform, but with likely only 57 Democrats supporting it, and Joe Lieberman, the independent, planning to take part in a filibuster with the 40 Republicans, which would prevent any action, unless “reconciliation”, requiring only 50 or 51 Democrats is invoked, which would alienate moderate Democrats and lead to bad blood in the Senate.

Even if legislation was passed in the Senate, it would then have to go to a conference committee to be reconciled with the House bill, and there are many contentious areas of the legislation, including the amended bill in the House banning abortion coverage except for the life of the mother, rape or incest, something bound to be controversial with liberals in both houses and with many women voters and liberal activists who would be against any such amending of the final legislation.

So the Democrats could splinter and their liberal backers could abandon them, but at the same time, if the Republicans continue to stand on the sidelines in total opposition, it could have a negative effect on their fortunes if the bill passes into law, with the likelihood of popular support once it is actually the law of the land.

So both parties are playing with a delicate issue which could affect their fortunes in 2010 and beyond! The long term future of President Obama is also at stake! Never a dull moment!