Day: September 12, 2010

The Complexity Facing The Republican Hopes For A Majority in Congress

Ronald 1 Comment

It has been much stated that the Republican Party is favored now to win a majority of the House of Representatives in November’s elections, with some chance of gaining control of the Senate as well!

The numbers always quoted are 39 in the House and 10 in the Senate, but it is not quite that simple!

To gain 39 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate also means that the Republicans cannot afford to lose any seats, and if they do, then the number of new Republicans needed in both chambers grows!

To believe that EVERY Republican in both houses running for re-election, and that every open seat that is Republican, will stay Republican is truly a dream beyond reality!

Remember there is a lot of anger and frustration with INCUMBENTS, but in both parties! The Tea Party Movement has been active in trying to defeat Republican incumbents where they can (as for instance Bob Bennett in Utah and Lisa Murkowski in Alaska), and are not automatically willing to back the Republicans when it comes to getting legislation through, if the GOP gains the majority!

So it is not going to be easy for the Republicans to gain enough seats, although it is acknowledged that the Democrats will certainly lose seats! But if by some chance the Republicans do gain enough seats, there will likely be paralysis as far as action is concerned to deal with the economic crisis, as the Tea Party activists who are elected will refuse to back spending and will insist on budget cuts, despite the reality that there is little that can be cut from the major parts of the budget–defense, interest on the national debt, Social Security, and Medicare!

In the light of day, the Republicans might very well regret their majority, as the Democrats will be able to claim by 2012 that they have been a reactionary, do nothing Congress, and the anger and frustration of the people will likely lead to a return of the Democrats to control of Congress, and the victory, probably by a wider margin, of President Barack Obama to a second term as President of the United States!

Alarming Rise In Poverty: Back To The 1960s Level! :(

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An Associated Press investigation demonstrates that the Great Recession, that America is suffering through since its beginning in December 2007, has led to a growing level of poverty unseen since the mid 1960s, which at that time led to the Great Society War On Poverty under President Lyndon B. Johnson! 🙁

This is not an issue of the chronically poor lower class that has always been a problem for America! It is the issue of millions of people, once considered middle class, who have, through loss of employment and loss of homes, become the “new poor” in America! 🙁

The statistics on poverty will be released soon, and might add to the growing burden of the Obama Administration in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections!

The poverty rate has been about 13.2 percent, but is expected to rise to near 15 percent, meaning one out of every seven Americans will be perceived as being in poverty, a total of about 45 million people, of all races, nationalities, and geographic sections of the nation! 🙁

It is forecast that the increase in poverty in one year will be the greatest since records were first tallied in 1959!

The working age population 18-64 is expected to see a rise from 11.7 to 12.4 percent, the highest since 1965 when the War on Poverty began under Johnson!

Tragically, the child poverty rate will be over 20 percent, meaning one out of every five children under 18 will be in poverty, not a good thing for the emotional and physical health of younger people, who are poor without any ability to change the situation! 🙁

The question will be how a GOP Congress would deal with the rising poverty rate, since their basic viewpoint is that people tend to be poor because they fail to try to improve themselves through education and job training because of “handouts” given to them by Democratic Congresses and Presidents! 🙁

Once the Republicans gain control, if they do, of Congress, they will have the burden and responsibility to decide how to handle the highest poverty rate, and the worst economic conditions since the 1930s, and will no longer have the option of just opposing!

So ironically, as some project, if the Republicans gain control and President Obama fights them on the need to help the poor and the unemployed, their newly gained majority could lead to a big turnover for the Democrats in 2012 and a re-election victory for the President!

In other words, a “wave” against the Democrats now could lead to a “wave” against the Republicans two years from now, as the American people express their impatience and anger by the chant of “throw the rascals out!”