The state of Iowa has the first vote in the Presidential contest of 2012, as it is the host of the first caucuses on February 6, 2012. Tons of publicity and media coverage are being given to that state, but it is hard to believe that what happens in Iowa will have any real impact long term on the Election of 2012.
Since the caucuses began in 1972, only two Presidential winners running in a non-incumbent year have won Iowa–George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008. Ronald Reagan ended up second in 1980 and George H. W. Bush was third in 1988. Jimmy Carter ended up second in 1976 and Bil Clinton fourth in 1992.
The problem with all caucuses, which about one third of the states use instead of primaries, is that only activists are involved, rather than the masses of the population, and they tend to be more extreme–with the Republicans being more to the RIght of center, and the Democrats to the Left of center.
So when it seems that Michele Bachmann is in the lead in Iowa, but that Rick Perry, if he enters, would compete for the evangelical Christian vote, and that Tim Pawlenty will be left “in the dust”, and Herman Cain has some support because of his statements about Muslims and Mormons, and that Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman are not seen as serious candidates–all this should tell us that once Iowa has done its part in the nominating process, we are very likely to look back and say Iowa AGAIN had little impact on the ultimate nominee of the Republican Party in the Presidential Election of 2012!