Many Hispanics and Latinos are unhappy with President Barack Obama, due to the deportation policies of the administration, seen as considerably tougher than under George W. Bush; and to the continuing economic difficulties faced by them, a higher unemployment rate than whites.
But yet, it seems clear from a survey of the Pew Hispanic Center that Hispanics and Latinos will back Obama by 2-1 over any Republican opponent.
The reason is the constant anti Hispanic and anti Latino statements of Republicans running for the Presidency, and the Republican membership of Congress.
Also, jobs, education and health care matter most to Hispanics and Latinos, and on all three, the GOP is seen as unfriendly and antagonistic to the values and concerns of those groups.
John McCain received 31 percent of the Hispanic and Latino vote in 2008. George W. Bush had done better, with about 40 percent. It seems clear that whoever the Republican nominee is, he is unlikely to get much more than 20 percent, if that.
And only Cuban Americans are likely to vote in the majority for the Republican nominee for President, while Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, and other Central and South American Hispanics will certainly back Obama overwhelmingly!
“John McCain received 31 percent of the Hispanic and Latino vote in 2008. George W. Bush had done better, with about 40 percent. It seems clear that whoever the Republican nominee is, he is unlikely to get much more than 20 percent, if that.”
In 2008, Barack Obama won Hispanics by 36 percentage points: 67%, to the 31% for John McCain.
If the 2012 Republican nominee (and I figure it will be Mitt Romney) were to only get 20% (at best), we’d be in for a landslide.
Consider these numbers (from 2008):
Whites (74 percent): Obama 43%, McCain 55%
Blacks (13 percent): Obama 95%, McCain 4%
Hispanics (9 percent): Obama 67%, McCain, 31%
Asians (2 percent): Obama 62%, McCain 35%
Obama won 52.92% (365) over McCain at 45.66% (173).
Scenario for further decline of Hispanic/Republican support (for 2012):
Whites (71 percent): Obama 43%, Romney 55%
Blacks (13 percent): Obama 95%, Romney 4%
Hispanics (12 percent): Obama 79%, Romney 20%
Asians (2 percent): Obama 62%, Romney 35%
Obama would be re-elected by an increased margin around 5 percentage points. Given he beat McCain by 7.26%, that would be a landslide suprassing a national margin of 10 points. But not only that, the Scenario assumes the same numbers for the other groups and doesn’t account for “Others”; nor for the shifts; meaning increased support from, say, Asians. Some figure Whites will be declined support. I think the opposite. But they were the group that was first for which I assumed status quo numbers for the Scenario.