Day: January 2, 2012

The Sudden Rise of Senator Rick Santorum As Possible GOP Presidential Nominee!

With the Iowa Caucuses 24 hours away, it is very clear that with all of the public opinion polls that have taken place in the past six months, that again, while they are interesting and good discussion pieces, it does not guarantee that what these polls claim are the views of the voters will actually work out in practice.

Who would have thought that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, long regarded as insignificant and having no chance to win, is now in a position of possibly ending up winning the Iowa Caucuses? His surge the past week has come at precisely the right time with the actual vote about to occur!

But when one hears that possibly 41 percent of those who intend to vote are not settled on who to back, it proves once again the fickle and confused nature of many voters, possibly more so in a tough time economically as we are experiencing, due to the collapse of the economy in 2008 and since.

So a good looking, friendly, warm candidate who comes across as genuine and real, as Rick Santorum does, suddenly has a real shot at winning the GOP Presidential nomination.

This does not mean that progressives should be happy at Santorum being the possible winner in Iowa, and having a good chance to be the candidate of the Republican Party. He appeals to social conservatives, highly religious voters, due to his stand against gay rights in all forms and details; his total anti abortion stands from the beginning of his political career; and his decision to home school his seven children.

The point is that Santorum might come across on the surface as a “nice” guy who is accessible, does not dodge questions from voters, looks at people he is speaking to with a direct eye on them, and appears more sincere in his views than anyone, and far less of a “flip flopper” than possibly anyone in the race.

But not only Mitt Romney, the supposed GOP front runner, but also Barack Obama, needs to be aware that a Santorum candidacy is a threat to the mainstream of the nation and the Republican Party!

If he is nominated, he should, in theory, with his extreme right wing views, the most since Barry Goldwater in 1964, be easy for Barack Obama to defeat.

To believe, however, that Santorum would be easy to defeat, could be a fatal error on the part of the Democratic Party and President Obama!

Instead, a possible Rick Santorum Presidency MUST be seen as a “clear and present danger” to the achievements of the New Deal, the Great Society, and the reforms in the 20th century brought about by both Democratic and Republican Presidents!

Rick Santorum would be a danger to women, African Americans, Hispanics and Latinos, immigrants of all backgrounds, gays and lesbians, the environment, government regulation of business, a fair tax system, labor rights, a fair balance in the federal courts including the Supreme Court, and American foreign policy with the threat of more foreign wars in the name of fighting what Santorum would call “Islamofascism”!

So no one should take the possible candidacy of Rick Santorum for President as something to dismiss or ignore. That would be at the threat and danger to too many groups and issues!

Further Evidence Of Insignificance Of Iowa Caucuses, And Significance Of New Hampshire Primary!

So much attention is paid to the Iowa Caucuses, but the more one examines them, one realizes how unimportant to history Iowa really is.

Only George W. Bush and Barack Obama have won the Iowa Caucuses and gone on to being elected President. Jimmy Carter fell behind “Uncommitted” in 1976. One could say that since the two most recent Presidents won Iowa, that it is an indication of the changing role of Iowa, but that is really highly doubtful!

At the same time, New Hampshire’s Primary HAS been VERY significant in picking Presidents, as Jimmy Carter in 1976 and John F. Kennedy in 1960 won the state, and Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and George H W Bush in 1988 also won the state.

Historical Reality Of Iowa (Top Three) And New Hampshire (Top Two) Are The Only Choices For Presidential Nomination Of Either Party

All of the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination contend they will go on, even if they perform poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But the historical reality is that unless one ends up in the top three in Iowa AND the top two in New Hampshire, there is no future for such a candidate.

The only exceptions are Bill Clinton in 1992 in Iowa in 4th place behind “favorite son” Tom Harkin, “Uncommitted”, and Paul Tsongas, but Harkin winning 76 percent of the vote; and John McCain, who in 2008 in Iowa ran behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, but lost to Thompson for third place only by a total of 424 votes. NEVER has anyone in either party ending up lower than second place in New Hampshire won the Presidential nomination of either political party!

Thus, only five Iowa third or fourth place finishers have ended up winning New Hampshire and being the nominee: Bill Clinton fourth in 1992, Michael Dukakis third in 1988, George McGovern third in 1972, John McCain fourth in 2008, and George H W Bush third in 1988.

So, assuming the polls are correct, Jon Huntsman (not really competing in Iowa), Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and probably Newt Gingrich, are “toast”, with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and probably Rick Santorum (due to a late surge at the proper time), the real contenders in New Hampshire.

That would mean that Rick Santorum would become the candidate of the “social conservatives”, but the odds are that Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire and go on to become the GOP nominee for President in 2012 against President Obama!