A new poll shows that only TEN percent of those polled have a positive view of Congress in 2012.
The Gallup Poll showed the unbelievable reality that Congress has a lower rating than BP during the Oil Spill, or Richard Nixon during Watergate, or banks during the banking crisis of 2008.
This could mean, in theory, that we could witness a wholesale removal of members of both parties in Congress in November, but that is really highly unlikely.
The fact that many Americans are unhappy with Congress as an institution does not mean that they do not like THEIR member of Congress, and most members routinely get re-elected, particularly in the House of Representatives, with a higher chance of defeat in the Senate races.
Also, reapportionment of seats, which occurs once in a decade, will probably promote less turnover since boundary lines change. And since a substantial number of members of Congress are retiring, some of them are leaving because they see the handwriting on the wall, as the saying goes!
More than incumbents losing who do not retire, is the question of whether the Republicans can retain control of the House of Representatives, and whether the Democrats can continue to control the Senate.
What seems most likely at this juncture is that we may see a switch in party control in both chambers, as the Democrats only need a 25 seat gain to take control, and there is great discontent with the Tea Party Movement membership in the GOP, which has made life miserable for Speaker of the House John Boehner and his party.
And the likelihood is that the US Senate will see a Republican takeover, needing only four seats to accomplish that.
This will present a new scenario for President Barack Obama if he is re-elected, but it is a more normal situation to have a Democratic House and a Republican Senate historically, having occurred from 1911-1913, 1931-1933. and from 1981-1987. The present opposite party control in the two chambers–a Republican House and a Democratic Senate–has NEVER happened, and seems to have proved to be less able to accomplish ANY cooperation as a result!
Professor,
In some respects, the phenomenon of the Tea Party has some similarities with the American/Know Nothing party in the 1850’s.
What’s your take on that? Is Mitt Romney the 21st century version of Millard Fillmore?
That is a very interesting comparison, the Know Nothings of the 1850s and the Tea Party Movement. However, Romney cannot be compared with Fillmore for two reasons: Fillmore became President by succession, which is not the case with Romney; and Fillmore ran on a third party ticket, which Romney will not; and also, Fillmore won only one state, Maryland, in the Electoral College, and no matter how poorly Romney might do, he will win more than one state, and one of those he will NOT win is Maryland! 🙂
Never underestimate the the political power of Michael Steele 😉 wink! wink!
I hit the submit button too fast. While I know that the Know Nothing/American party was a third party, my question was more philosophical in nature.
The irony is that the American Party fizzled out after it made its official position known on slavery (pro). Ultimately, Joseph Baily threw his support behind Lincoln in the 1860 race.