Illinois is the state of President Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican President. Today, Republicans vote in their Presidential primary, but the state will not go to whoever wins the state.
It is the state of mainstream moderates in the past, including Senator Charles Percy, Senator Everett Dirksen, House Minority Leader Bob Michel, and House Republican Conference Chairman John Anderson, who ran an Independent race for President against Ronald Reagan and President Jimmy Carter in 1980.
None of the above would have a chance in the Illinois Republican Party of 2012, or the national Republican Party.
This is a tragedy, and it is copied in many other states throughout America.
When Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts can claim to be the second most bipartisan Republican Senator, after retiring Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine, and only Senator Susan Collins of Maine can claim to be much the same, that is testimonial to just how right wing the GOP has become!
There is NO chance for Illinois to go Republican in 2012, or anytime soon! The spirit of compromise and bipartisanship does not exist, sadly!
Ah — the change!
Illinois was an even better bellwether state than Ohio from the Republican Party’s first election, in 1856, through the 20th century.
All candidates who won the presidency during this period carried the Prairie State with the exception of the following three: Grover Cleveland (1884), Woodrow Wilson (1916), and Jimmy Carter (1976). (By comparison: After 1856, Ohio didn’t once carry for a Democrat, let alone an elected one, until 1912.) Cleveland won the state of Illinois in his second, but non-consecutive, election (1892). Wilson carried it in his first election (1912). And Carter narrowly missed getting it with a Democratic pickup year for winning over the presidency. (There were a host of states that the unseated GOP Gerald Ford narrowly held.)
In 2000, George W. Bush became the first winning Republican to prevail without the state of Illinois. The home state of current president Barack Obama is now a base state for the Democratic Party. (As is current vice president Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware, in the column for all 20th century winners except the years of 1916, 1932, and 1948.)
Obama won Ill. by 25.11 percentage points, compared to having defeated John McCain by 7.26%, making 2008 Ill. 17.85 percentage points bluer than the national outcome.
Things change.
The electorate, in this state or that state, goes through change. Gradual change.
Former bellwethers, come to think of it, that are nowadays identifying Republican include Tennessee and Kentucky, the home states of former Democratic vice presidents Al Gore and Alben Barkley. From 1912 to 2008, which are the last 25 elections, Tenn. voted for the winners in all but 1924, 1960, and 2008. Ky. backed the winners in all but 1920, 1952, 1960, and 2008.
Again — things change.
Republicans have to now put up near or actual landslide national margins in order to get a lot of the states they used to carry, like Illinois. Of course that was during the period when the south was not Republican but Democratic (and the north was not Democratic but Republican).
Once again — things change.
The two major parties realigned, gradually, but a lot of what had been the ideological policies supported by the states in generations past are somewhat there now. They just switch names. Switched teams. And switched their primary colors.
One final time — things change.