Month: April 2012

Mitt Romney And Tea Party Republicans In The House Of Representatives: A “Shotgun” Marriage?

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the likely GOP Presidential nominee, is accustomed to doing things HIS way, both in the corporate world and in his one term in the Massachusetts Governorship, where he never really learned the names of legislators, or went out of his way to negotiate with those he needed to work with.

This is a man who likes CONTROL to the extreme, but already there are signs in the campaign that the Tea Party Republicans in the House of Representatives are not going to allow themselves to be dictated to, or told how to conduct their campaigns, and how they deal with issues about the budget, foreign policy, and social controversies.

No matter how much Mitt Romney has moved to the Right, it is believed that he is going to attempt a move back toward the center, his more natural location in his earlier career, but if he does that, he will find many House Republicans, and possibly even Senate Republicans, will not join him in such a swing, and will be likely to attack him if he does.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg, as IF he is elected, with a GOP majority in one or both houses, the question will be whether he will allow his Presidency to be controlled by the Right Wing of the party.

The likelihood is that he will not agree to that, and that would mean bitter division within a party that even now is not thrilled at having Mitt Romney as their standard bearer.

Ironically, if Romney won, and had a Democratic Congress, while there would be natural rivalry and conflict, it is more likely that much more progress would be made toward dealing with economic and foreign policy issues, than under a Republican Party dominated by the Right WIng.

So anyone who thinks a Romney Presidency would be glorious, and united, and change the political atmosphere in the nation’s capital, needs to have a reality check!

Arizona Ripe For Pickup By Barack Obama In Presidential Campaign Of 2012

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Arizona, the center of anti immigrant legislation, and arguably the ‘looniest” state in America, at least according to Bill Maher, is ripe for pickup by the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in the Presidential campaign of 2012.

Yes, it is true that the legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, and that both Senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) are Republicans, and that the majority of the House delegation is Republican, and that Governor Jan Brewer is Republican, but yet with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, now about 30 percent, it looks as if Arizona is, over time, going to go the way of California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado and vote Democratic.

Even Texas in the future, certainly by 2020, is likely to tip Democratic as long as the GOP continues its nativist mentality toward immigrants.

No one is saying that Obama will win Arizona, but there is a good chance that he could, and even if he does not, Arizona is likely to be a closer race than it was in 2008, when an Arizona Senator named John McCain won his home state, but not by as much as one would have thought (about 8.5 percentage points of the vote and 196,000 popular votes).

A Comparison Of The Presidential Elections Of 2004 And 2012 And A Contrast At The Same Time!

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When one thinks about it, there are comparisons that can be made between the Presidential Elections of 2004 and 2012. But there are also dramatic differences!

In both elections, there is an incumbent President, highly unpopular among members of the opposition party in Congress, as well as voters of that opposition party.

In both elections, the opponent comes from the state of Massachusetts!

In both elections, the opponent is far wealthier than the President in office.

In both elections, the opponent is a stiff person in public, not good at relating to ordinary people.

In both elections, the opponent proved to be a “flip flopper”, a person who was constantly changing views on many issues, and seemed uncomfortable in his beliefs and in his own “skin”!

Of course, there is a world of differences between Senator John Kerry and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and this post is not meant to denigrate Senator Kerry.

Senator Kerry has had more than 30 years of service in Congress, including 28 in the US Senate, and is presently Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has dedicated his life to public service, and could very well be Barack Obama’s next Secretary of State when Hillary Clinton leaves the State Department in 2013. He had an issue of being a “flip flopper” on some issues, but was never as much a master of changing his mind as Mitt Romney. Kerry also served his country in VIetnam, while Romney did not serve, and spent his life making money, except for a brief stint as a one term Governor.

So to compare Kerry to Romney is interesting, but Kerry comes out looking a lot better than the Republican nominee for President in 2012!

Latest Estimate On Presidential Election Results: Obama An Easy Winner Of Second Term!

Ronald 3 Comments

We are now a little more than six and a half months until the Presidential Election of 2012.

The latest estimates on the Electoral College, which will decide who takes the Oath of Office as President of the United States on Sunday, January 20, 2013, make it clear that President Obama has a clear edge to be re-elected.

According to the Associated Press, the Democrats have solid leads in 14 states and the District of Columbia, leading in five New England states, four Mid Atlantic states and the District of Columbia, plus Illinois, and the three Pacific Coast states and Hawaii, for a total of 186 electoral votes.

Obama also leads in four “swing states” in the crucial area of the Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), along with Pennsylvania, with a total of 56 electoral votes.

So when you add these 18 states and the District of Columbia, it adds up to 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the number needed to win the election.

So to believe that Obama will not gain 28 electoral votes as a minimum out of a grand total of 296 remaining electoral votes requires true delusion by those who predict a Mitt Romney and Republican victory!

Nine states are said to be “Up For Grabs”, all “swing states”, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, for a grand total of 105 electoral votes

So if Obama wins Florida, he has won the election. If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he has won the election. If he wins Ohio and Colorado, he needs only ONE more vote to be elected, which could come about from New Hampshire’s 4, New Mexico’s 5, Nevada’s 6, or Iowa’s 6.

Obama will probably not win all of the “swing states”, but to imagine he will lose all of them, or enough of them to lose the election, is a figment of a person’s imagination!

Were Obama to win all nine of these states making for a total of 27 states plus the District of Columbia, he would have 347 electoral votes.

Three states lean Republican, but could go to Obama theoretically if everything worked out in an ideal fashion–Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Indiana went to Obama in 2008, while Missouri went to John McCain by fewer than 5,000 votes. Arizona could go to Obama because of the rapidly rising Hispanic-Latino vote in a state which has promoted discriminatory laws against them. These three states have 32 electoral votes among them. Were everything to break right, it would allow Obama a grand total of 379 electoral votes and 30 states and the District of Columbia.

The other twenty states are solidly Republican, but with the possible exception of Georgia, with its growing number of Hispanics and Latinos Were the unbelievable but possible win by Obama in Georgia, it would mean 16 more electoral votes and a final grand total of 395 electoral votes in 31 states and the District of Columbia!

One might ask why Obama could end up with fewer electoral votes than 2008, if winning all of the states he won then. The answer is that states that are anti Obama have more electoral votes than they did, under reapportionment that goes into effect once a decade. These states include South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Utah.

Meanwhile, states which went for Obama in 2008 lost seats–New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa.

Three states that went for Obama in 2008 gained seats–Florida, Nevada and Washington, while two states which went for McCain in 2008 lost seats–Louisiana and Missouri.

So this is the state of affairs regarding the Presidential Election of 2012 with a little over 200 days left in the Presidential campaign!

The Sectionalism And Regionalism In America’s 50 States

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An interesting part of American history and contemporary America is the reality of sectionalism and regionalism in many American states.

One classic example was the case of West Virginia, a breakaway from Virginia of areas of the state that were anti slavery, occurring during the Civil War in 1863. Therefore, the site of John Brown’s Raid on Harpers Ferry in 1859, which had been part of Virginia, became probably the most famous site in the new state of West Virginia, and remains a fascinating historic site today, which the author has visited.

But also, there have been desires in many states to have secessionist movements and the creation of new states.

So when observers look at the 50 states, they realize that in many of them, there are real rivalries and divisions, and a different state of mind about politics and the economy.

It is well known that upstate New York has little in common with New York City and Long Island and the counties just north of New York City.

Also, downstate Illinois is totally different in mentality than Chicago.

Central and North Florida are totally alienated from South Florida, and particularly, Miami.

Upper and Western Michigan are a different world than Detroit.

Central and Western Pennsylvania are a world apart from Philadelphia.

Central and Southern New Jersey are vastly different than Northern New Jersey, just across the George Washington Bridge from New York City.

Central and Southern Virginia are another planet from Northern Virginia, which is the Washington DC suburbs.

Central and Southern Ohio are totally different than northeastern Ohio, around Cleveland.

Central and Southern Missouri are a different world than Eastern Missouri, the area of St. Louis.

Texas and California are the best examples of sectionalism and regionalism, particularly with being the second and third largest states in area.

So Texas has the “Panhandle” centered around Lubbock; the area around Dallas and Fort Worth; the capital of Austin in the center of the state; the largest metropolitan area around Houston; and the area around San Antonio and further south to the Mexican border. It could easily be five or more states.

California has the traditional split between north and south, between San Francisco and Los Angeles. But now it is recognized that California also has a gap between East and West, between the coastal areas and the interior areas, with the interior being very different economically, and very much conservative and Republican, as compared to the rest of the state. There has even been a movement to separate interior areas in the south from the rest of the state, creating a 51st state, but the chances of its success are seen as highly unlikely.

The point is that there tends to be stereotyping of our 50 states, labeling them as having a particular economic and political structure, but the reality is much more complicated, and could, some day, lead to the breaking up of a few states, creating a few new additions to the Union!

National Security And Sexuality: Espionage And Blackmail Danger

Ronald 2 Comments

The scandal involving eleven Secret Service agents and five military personnel, engaged in drinking and prostitution in Colombia before the arrival of President Barack Obama at the Sixth Summit of the Americas meeting with other nations’ leaders, is extremely troubling in many ways.

It is not just the lack of ethics and high levels of immorality involved, but also it is not acceptable to say “boys will be boys” and excuse the misbehavior on that basis.

It is, more seriously, the issue of the dangers presented by these agents’ horrible judgment and reckless behavior.

The national security of the United States and the protection of the President were endangered by what occurred in Colombia.

Once an agent or military personnel engage in drinking and sexual behavior while working, the possibility of espionage and blackmail are opened up, and it means the area of immunity and safety is compromised, which could lead to some “pillow talk” leading to information being given that could compromise our nation’s safety and security, and even the possible “planting” of listening and video devices, and even biological, chemical, nuclear or other devices that could affect the health or life of the President, First Lady, children, Vice President, Presidential candidates, and other top officials of the government protected by the Secret Service!

Therefore, this situation is not be chuckled at, as it is reprehensible and dangerous, and such behavior must be fully investigated, and there must be a fail-safe system to prevent any such misbehavior and bad judgment such as this to occur ever again!

What it comes down to is that when people work in national security sensitive areas, particularly when involved with the highly responsible job of protecting the President even with their lives, such individuals MUST be informed that their behavior, on and off the job, is limited in special ways, as even off the job liaisons could lead to information being given that could compromise the national security and safety of our leaders, and reveal our national secrets.

Shocking, Horrible, Unacceptable Scandal In The Secret Service: What Have We Come To Regarding Presidential Security?

Ronald 1 Comment

A very shocking, horrible, and unacceptable scandal has erupted in the Secret Service, the agency responsible for the safety and security of the President and his family, the Vice President and his family, Republican Presidential candidates during the Presidential campaign, and others assigned protection by the US government!

Up to a dozen Secret Service agents have been sent home from the Sixth Summit of the Americas in Colombia, where Barack Obama is attending, in a nation infamous for drug cartels and violence that could endanger the President, because of accusations of consorting with prostitutes and covering up their illicit activities.

While supposedly none of these agents were directly involved with the personal protection of the President, it is still alarming and distressful that prostitutes apparently were brought back to the hotel the President was due to stay at, an utterly reckless violation of Presidential security.

What have we come to that those who are given the most responsible job, bar none, of anyone involved in any security detail in this nation, could be so reckless, irresponsible, and endanger the health and safety and security of our President? This is absolutely mind boggling beyond belief!

The author has often wondered whether the President, whoever he is, and specifically President Obama at this point, is in danger from “rogue” elements in the Secret Service who could be engaged in plots against the President, even at the point of realization that some of those might have to sacrifice their own lives to accomplish their despicable plan to murder the President of the United States! Particularly the fact that Obama is our first African American President, and is highly controversial, and causes tremendous polarization politically through no fault of his own, but simply the reality of politics in 21st century America, is enough to cause the author great concern and worry for his safety and security, and that of his wife and children, and other government and political leaders!

There is absolutely no room for error, no room for blunders, no room for any “hanky panky” by Secret Service agents at any time while employed by the US government to do the most important and responsible job that anyone has in this nation!

There can be no forgiveness if the charges are true, and the agents need to be exposed, prosecuted, and given prison time as a warning to others who might have irresponsible and reckless ideas about their role as Secret Service agents!

We need people in the Secret Service who are totally dedicated to their jobs, and never allow themselves to be compromised in any way at any time while in employment by the US government!

It is not acceptable to say “boys will be boys”, that all men, and even women, have sexual urges that must be acted upon! If that is the mentality, then get another kind of employment, but NOT in the Secret Service!

There will be a need for a full investigation, totally non political, by a joint committee of both houses of Congress, so that this will never happen again, as it has become the biggest scandal in the history of the Secret Service, and stains the record of those dedicated agents, both past and present, who have dedicated their lives, and in some cases lost their lives, in their commitment to service and protection of our top government officials!

The Burden Carried Daily By Young Black Males In America: A Great Human Tragedy!

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We love to claim that there is equal opportunity and fairness of treatment in America.

But it is reality that anyone of us born white has a tremendous advantage at birth to live a good life, as compared to people of other racial groups, particularly the case with African Americans.

And the most dangerous life is faced by young black males in their teens and 20s and 30s.

Not only do young black males face the constant threat of violence and danger in heavily black communities in the cities, with the horrors of drugs, gangs, and poor slum conditions so common in America’s urban centers.

But even for those who are “middle class” or live in integrated communities, their daily lives are a nightmare!

It is hard to find work, hard to get a good education and go to college, hard to shop since they are constantly watched because of ingrained fears that they might steal items from department stores, supermarkets and other retail establishments.

But also, at a young age, they have to be informed by those who love them that they need to recognize that other people who are white, and sometimes even Hispanic or Asian ethnicity, may look on them as suspicious, simply on the basis of how they dress, how they walk, how they speak, how they behave, and if it is felt that they are in a neighborhood that arises suspicion as to their intentions.

This is what led to the murder of Trayvon Martin, ironically by an Hispanic man, George Zimmerman, who thought 17 year old Martin was in the “wrong” neighborhood, and was up to no good, and therefore, was perceived as a threat that allowed Zimmerman to “stand his ground” and use his firearm to end the life of a young man, who if he was white, would not have faced the death penalty issued by Zimmerman on his own decision, as if he had the right to be an executioner and claim self defense.

This situation involving Trayvon Martin is a great human tragedy, but for more than Trayvon Martin himself. It is a warning to every young black male that he is part of an endangered species that can become hunting material as much as a deer, a bear, or any other animal.

It cheapens the value and worth of human life, and it sets up a potential for a never ending Holocaust, which may likely also cause a counter reaction of response, which can only bring about a civil war, which could make our official Civil War seem trivial by comparison!

Losing Vice Presidential Candidates And Their Careers

Ronald 2 Comments

In the past fifty years, since the Kennedy-Nixon election of 1960, we have had a total of 12 losing Vice Presidential nominees of major parties, not including Vice President Walter Mondale under President Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Vice President Dan Quayle under President George H. W. Bush in 1992.

What ever became of these 12 losing Vice Presidential nominees?

Henry Cabot Lodge, who ran with Richard Nixon in 1960, went on to be Ambassador to South Vietnam for President Kennedy in 1963-1964, a sign of bipartisan cooperation, even though Lodge had lost his US Senate seat to President Kennedy in 1952. He then was a candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 1964, but did not get very far in the race. Lodge had had a distinguished career as Senator from Massachusetts from 1937-1953, played an influential role in drafting Dwight D. Eisenhower for President in 1952, and served as Ike’s United Nations Ambassador for eight years, before becoming Nixon’s running mate in 1960. Overall, a very distinguished career, to say the least!

William E. Miller, who ran with Barry Goldwater in 1964, served as a member of the US House of Representatives from upstate New York from 1951-1965, and was Republican National Chairman from 1961-1964. His public career ended with the Goldwater defeat, but his daughter, Stephanie Miller, is a comedian and radio talk show host, and also on Current TV five mornings a week. Interestingly, she is very liberal, while her father was a solid conservative.

Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine ran with Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968, after having served in the US Senate for ten years, and continued to serve in the Senate until 1980, when he agreed to be President Jimmy Carter’s Secretary of State for one year. He also sought the Presidency himself in 1972, was considered a front runner, but his candidacy floundered.

Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri was George McGovern’s first running mate in 1972, but was forced out over revelations that he had undergone shock treatments and taken psychiatric medication. Despite that, he served in the US Senate for 18 years from 1969-1987, and served with distinction, with whatever mental problems he had not interfering with his performance.

Sargent Shriver, the brother in law of President Kennedy, replaced Eagleton, and was well known as the head of the Peace Corps under Kennedy, and as head of the War on Poverty under President Lyndon B. Johnson. Then he served as Ambassador to France under Johnson and Richard Nixon, before running for Vice President. He also ran for President unsuccessfully in 1976, and became the head of the Special Olympics. His daughter, Maria Shriver, became an NBC reporter and the wife of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California. His decline due to Alzheimer’s Disease had an impact on publicity about that disease. He died a much beloved public servant.

Gerald Ford had Senator Bob Dole of Kansas as his running mate in 1976. Dole had been a member of the House of Representatives from 1961-1969, and served in the Senate from 1969 until his resignation in 1996, when he became the Republican nominee for President. He remains active today, and is highly honored for his public career, and his wife Elizabeth also served as a United States Senator from North Carolina. Additionally, Dole had served as Republican National Chairman from 1971-1973 under Richard Nixon. He also was, at different times, Senate Majority Leader and Senate Minority Leader.

Geraldine Ferraro was Walter Mondale’s running mate in 1984, becoming the first woman to run for Vice President. She had been a Congresswoman from Queens County, New York City from 1978-1984, and was later US Ambassador to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights under President Bill Clinton from 1993-1996. She ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate in 1992 and 1998, and later was involved in the Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign of 2008.

Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas was the running mate of Michael Dukakis in1988. He served in the House of Representatives from 1949-1955, and as US Senator from 1971-1993, winning his seat the first time over future President George H. W. Bush, He was also Senate Finance Committee Chairman, and Treasury Secretary under BIll Clinton in 1993–1994.

New York Congressman Jack Kemp, a former football player for the San Diego Chargers and the Buffalo Bills of the American Football League, served in the House of Representatives from upstate Buffalo, New York, from 1971-1989. He ran for President unsuccessfully in 1988, before agreeing to be Bob Dole’s running mate in 1996. He also served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under the first President Bush from 1989-1993. He was a major supporter of economic conservatism, and a follower of President Ronald Reagan. He continued to advocate his views after losing the Vice Presidency.

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman was Al Gore’s running mate in 2000, and was the first Jewish nominee for Vice President. He had served in the Senate since first being elected in 1988, and will retire from the Senate in 2012, after four complete terms, as a controversial independent Democrat, progressive on social issues, but hard line conservative on foreign policy. He was called conservative intellectual William F. Buckley, Jr’s “favorite Democrat”.

In 2004, North Carolina Senator John Edwards was John Kerry’s Vice Presidential running mate. He served in the Senate for one term from 1999-2005, and sought the Presidency in 2008, and when his campaign failed, he was revealed to have a consensual affair with a woman while his wife was sick with cancer, and the liaison produced a daughter, and now has led to a trial that might lead to his imprisonment on charges of illegal use of campaign funds to cover the affair and the needs of the child and mother. This is truly a sad situation, still to be played out.

And finally, who could forget Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who came out of obscurity as the second woman to run for Vice President, with John McCain in 2008. She became a lightning rod, and many blamed the debacle of the McCain campaign on her, and her obvious ignorance of the issues and the facts of American politics and history. She has remained a controversial figure, who has made millions writing some books and giving speeches,and is seen by many as a major factor in the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Her future is still ahead of her, and we will not be able to ignore her, as she will be part of political news for a long time.

So who stood out among these losing VP candidates?

Clearly, Lodge, Muskie, Eagleton, Shriver, Dole, Bentsen, Kemp, and Lieberman had a positive effect on American history.

The same cannot be said for Miller, Ferraro, Edwards, and Palin.

However, all of them contributed to our history, and should be remembered!

Obama, Biden, And Romney: Income Tax Time!

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President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have finished and released information about their federal income tax returns, but Mitt Romney has asked for a delay in filing for six months!

Obama made far less in 2011, due to declining book sales, with his income being about $790,000, his taxes $162,000, and his effective tax rate being 20.5 percent.

Joe Biden, never well to do at any point of his life, reported income of $379,000, taxes of $88,000, and an effective tax rate of about 23 percent.

Both gave substantially higher percentages to charity than Romney, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich reported in 2010.

Romney has what is believed to be $23 million in income from investments, with expected taxes of over $3.2 million, meaning a tax rate of about 15 percent, and in the past only about 10 percent charity, mostly to his own Mormon Church.

By delaying his 2011 tax returns, Romney only makes it a bigger deal closer to the election, and the call for him to release tax returns as extensive as he supplied John McCain in 2008 when he was considered for Vice President, will grow by leaps and bounds, particularly with the fact that his father, George Romney, gave tax information for about 20 years before his run for President in 1968! Why can’t Mitt be as forthcoming as his dad was 44 years ago?

And of course, whoever is the Vice Presidential nominee, will also have his or her taxes, effective tax rate, and charity contributions analyzed and exposed!

All this is not good for the Romney campaign, and it will be difficult to overcome the fact that Romney would be the wealthiest President ever upon taking office, more than George Washington was at the end of his life, with the certainty that someday, Romney will, just by investments, be the first billionaire President ever by the end of his life, if he serves in the Oval Office!