Day: May 20, 2012

Will Mitt Romney Select A Governor As Running Mate? Highly Unlikely!

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As the speculation about who Mitt Romney will pick as his running mate picks up, it seems clear that, despite some hints, it is highly unlikely that he will select a Governor or former Governor as his Vice Presidential choice.

The last time that two Governors ran on a Presidential ticket together was 1948, when NY Governor Thomas E. Dewey ran with California Governor Earl Warren, losing to President Harry Truman.

Also, in 1944, Dewey had run against Franklin D. Roosevelt and lost, with Governor John Bricker of Ohio as his Vice Presidential choice.

Those are the only times in the 20th century that two Governors ran together, with the choice otherwise usually being a Senator running as the Vice Presidential choice of a Governor.

So do not expect New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, or former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty to be the choice of Mitt Romney!

Vice President Joe Biden: The “Pit Bull” Of The Presidential Campaign Of 2012!

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Vice President Joe Biden has been in the news more than usual in recent weeks.

Biden spoke up on endorsement of gay marriage two weeks ago, and this led to an earlier assertion of support from Barack Obama than might have occurred otherwise, although it seems clear that Obama would have endorsed the concept before the Democratic National Convention in September.

And now Biden, always a vigorous campaigner throughout his career, has come out like a “pit bull”, going after Republican nominee Mitt Romney with a vengeance in the “swing” states, attacking Romney for claiming that he would take some credit for the revival of the auto industry, and also criticizing how Romney acquired his great wealth at Bain Capital, double the assets of all the eight Presidents from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush combined!

Biden knows how to hit the jugular vein, how to “punch and jab”, and reminds many of the fighting spirit of President Harry Truman, who gave the Republican opposition “Hell” during the 1948 Presidential campaign.

Some have thought of Biden as a negative for Obama, but in actual fact, he is a tremendous asset, and reminds people that despite the fact he will be 70 shortly after the election is resolved, that he should not be dismissed as a possible Presidential candidate to succeed his boss in 2016, when he would be 74 years old!

Don’t ever count Joe Biden out in any form or fashion!

NAACP Endorsement Of Gay Rights And Gay Marriage As Another Civil Rights Struggle: Major Victory!

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The leading, and most reputable, Civil Rights organization in America, the National Association For The Advancement Of Colored People (NAACP), has just endorsed gay rights and gay marriage as equivalent of another civil right, as much as the African American struggle for equality in the 1950s and 1960s.

This is a major victory for gay rights and gay marriage, and will help bring over many African Americans, who because of religious beliefs, have opposed such developments in California, North Carolina, and elsewhere, helping to cause defeats of referendums on the issue of gay marriage.

There were already signs of a beginning of a new attitude among blacks on the topic, and this will only help the progression toward something that will become more and more the norm over time, and in 40 years, we will look back with amazement at the opposition, just as was so with interracial marriage in the 1960s.

The “equal protection” clause of the 14th Amendment was utilized by the NAACP to justify their stand for gay marriage as a civil right.

This is the way that could be utilized in the future by the Supreme Court, and if a case came up in the short term, such as the California case pursued by Ted Olson and David Boies, the Court COULD rule in favor by a vote of 5-4,. assuming that Justice Anthony Kennedy, who made the majority in 2003 for gay privacy rights in Lawrence V. Texas, were to vote the same way.

One could say that Anthony Kennedy’s vote in 2003 had a great effect in spurring the rapid development of the gay rights movement in the intervening nine years from then to now!

So a Supreme Court endorsement of gay marriage could be in the offing sooner, rather than later!

Two Likelihoods Of 2012 Presidential Election Results

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When the Presidential Election of 2012 goes into the record books, two points will be noted that will be unique.

First, it now seems likely that Barack Obama will win re-election, and if that occurs, he will likely win with fewer electoral votes, even if he wins all of the states he won in 2008, since eight of those states lost electoral votes due to reapportionment, including New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa, a total loss of 10 electoral votes, with only Washington State, Nevada, and Florida gaining together 4 more electoral votes.

So IF Obama won every state he won in 2008, he would have 359 electoral votes, instead of 365, if he won one electoral vote in Nebraska, as last time, and if not, it would be a total of 358 electoral votes.

The fact that Obama would win re-election with fewer electoral votes would be the second time in history of such an event, with only Woodrow Wilson winning fewer electoral votes in 1916 than in 1912.

The other likelihood is that President Obama will have an opposition that raises more money than his campaign, the first time such an event has ever occurred, as the Republicans SuperPACS will likely raise a billion dollars or more, even higher than Obama hopes to gain in campaign funds, primarily from smaller contributors.

So 2012 will see two likelihoods that will set records, adding to the trivia of history!