The latest news on the economy is very disconcerting, as we saw the smallest job growth in eleven months, 69,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate inching up to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent.
According to economists, the Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and we are now into three years of “economic recovery”. After losing 7 million jobs, we have regained 4.2 million of them in the past three years.
Economic statistics can be used to prove or disprove any point. Obviously, the economy is a big problem, and Republican nominee Mitt Romney banks on that, and keeps on hammering it home, and will do that even more with the new economic figures.
But it is also important to realize that the economic recovery, the slowest since World War II, could also be seen in a different perspective, that the Great Recession has never really ended, and that the Republican opposition, by resisting any jobs legislation in the past year and a half, when they have controlled the House of Representatives, has massively contributed to it.
There is plenty of blame to go around, and Barack Obama and the Democrats must share the blame, but to claim that the GOP has no responsibility is ridiculous, and those who would claim that a President McCain would have had a better economic record must be smoking something that promotes delusions!
And the good aspect of the economic problem is that in seven of the ten “swing states” that the Obama Victory Fund contributes funds from sale of merchandise, the unemployment rate is lower, often substantially lower than in the nation at large.
This includes the following:
Iowa 5.1%
New Hampshire 5.0%
Virginia 5.6%
Wisconsin 6.7%
Ohio 7.4%
Pennsylvania 7.4%
Colorado 7.9%
The unemployment rate is higher in:
Florida 8.7%
North Carolina 9.4%
Nevada 11.7%
It should also be pointed out that in 34 states out of 50, two thirds, the unemployment rate is lower than the national average.
So Mitt Romney using the issue of unemployment in seven of the ten”swing states” is not going to ring as genuine, and if Obama wins those seven states, he can lose Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, and still win a second term handily!
One demographic that’s against Obama is the under 25 unemployment rate is 12%.
This was one demographic that was really come through for him back in ’08. Don’t know if this group will be as enthused or worse, apatheticand don’t bother to
enfranchise their vote, taking a “why bother” attitude. A lot of unknowns still floating out there.
Interesting piece, … and I’m with the fellow who also called into question your analysis as just a little too upbeat.
My concern, however, is with trends and fears (which will be heavily worked on) and that could knock most of your optimism into a cocked hat.
That is, it would be easy to say in Wisconsin, among others, “You/we have dodged the bullet to date – both personally and as a state – but since Obama’s policies are failing the country as a whole [I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS!], in due course, you/we will lose our jobs, at least many of us.”
I don’t have a particularly high opinion of the US electorate, but I think their ability to focus on the DIRECTION the numbers are taking is both real and scary. Yes, the President can and will point out what he’s had to labor against, but I’m afraid that although you and I and likely most readers agree 100% with that, … it sounds like whining. Here, the overwhelming ignorance of voters – “but you’re the President…. You’ve had 4 years…. You forced the Congress to go along with all sorts of stimulus and the Fed is doing your bidding.”
In short, if “it’s about the economy, stupid” this year, Obama had better pray for a grand compromise in Europe and all kinds of breaks in the U.S. … And yes, I so very hope he gets them, although if he doesn’t wind up with majorities in both houses, there’s a part of me that thinks that Romney – if/when he morphs back into a centrist Republican – might actually make more of a difference for good.
Oh – and one quick thing about “young people” unemployment – talk about an understated figure. Folks who never got employed post-graduation (and the past 3 years, we’re talking millions and millions) go all but uncounted as UNemployed. Similarly, those who’ve given up – and it’s not just non-whites – aren’t counted. No wonder Obama pushed student loans hard, but what he has and hasn’t done these last 4 years gives him an uphill battle that I think just moved into “impossible” territory – barring a Romney gaffe bigger than any to date.
Ed, you make some very valid points, and with five months to go, Obama supporters have a lot of work to do to convince people to get out there and vote, rather than stay home, or support an opponent who clearly has no plan to create jobs, based on his past performance in Massachusetts and with Bain Capital.
Obama needs to go out and campaign as FDR did with a higher unemployment rate in 1936, and Harry Truman did against a Republican Congress in both houses in 1948.