The battle for the majority control of the US Senate is in full swing, with the Republicans needing to pick up six seats in order to gain control in the MIdterm Elections of 2014.
The odds are seen as good, IF the establishment Republicans coming up for reelection are able to hold off the Tea Party challengers they face in primaries.
The Democrats are on the defensive, since about two thirds of the seats up in 2014 are Democratic, and particularly in the South, the small number of Senate Democrats from that section are under assault.
This blogger will examine the Senate races over time, but right now, the key issue is the effect IF the Senate goes Republican.
The likely scenario would be the following:
The Senate would work against any immigration reform.
The Senate would block any attempt at any gun regulation
The Senate would be likely to attempt a block of any Supreme Court nominees of President Obama, and probably battle more than ever over any judicial appointments at the lower levels of the courts, along with clear opposition to Presidential appointments to the cabinet or other key positions.
The Senate would probably help to encourage a Republican House of Representatives to draw up charges of impeachment against President Obama, but would be unable to gain a two thirds vote in the chamber, to convict and remove him from office.
Senate attempts to override Presidential vetoes would become more common, but the President would continue to have the advantage in that regard, as gaining a two thirds override is highly unlikely.
Overall, more gridlock and stalemate would occur, and more disillusionment with our national government would grow, and cause a likely return to Democratic control of the Senate in 2016, when Hillary Clinton or any other Democratic nominee wins the White House!
Historical odds of Republicans flipping the U.S. Senate, with the midterm elections of 2014, are against them.
SInce the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, the presidents elected beyond one full term who had same-party majority control of either house of Congress, and then lost them, suffered such loss always in midterms—but not twice.
Woodrow Wilson’s Democratic party lost both houses of Congress in 1918. Dwight Eisenhower’s Republican Party lost both houses of Congress in 1954. Ronald Reagan’s Republican Party lost the Senate in 1986. Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party lost both houses of Congress, a la Ike, in his second year of 1994.
George W. Bush saw Vermont U.S. Sen. Jim Jefford switch from Republican to independent—and caucus with the Democrats—and that threw the majority control to the Democratic side in 2001 for, what turned out to be, a year and a half. But that was not an election-triggered result. The year 2006 was when Bush’s Republican Party lost both houses of Congress and, of course, that made him the first two-term president to lost both houses of Congress in Year #06 since 1918 [Wilson].
Franklin Roosevelt is the only U.S. president elected beyond two full terms—and he is the only one, since the 17th Amendment, who never once lost same-party control of either house of Congress at any point during his presidency.
Richard Nixon is the only U.S. president, after the 17th Amendment, elected beyond one full term who never once had same-party majority control of either house of Congress at any point during his presidency.
Incumbent 44th President Barack Obama already experienced his same-party majority control loss of the House in 2010. I’m sure the sports-type electoral analyses will try to drum up suspense with the 2014 midterm elections. But if history is any indication, the talk of a Republican flip of the Senate—as if it’s a sure thing—may not manifest. I won’t place a bet right now. But I will not ignore history. In fact, I will look to past [electoral] performances for some indication.
Okay Okay. I give up Ron. You and D’s political strategic knowledge is beyond my scope. I have to ask because I am confused.
“The battle for the majority control of the US Senate is in full swing, with the Republicans needing to pick up six seats in order to gain control in the MIdterm Elections of 2014.
The odds are seen as good, IF the establishment Republicans coming up for reelection are able to hold off the Tea Party challengers they face in primaries.”
Are you saying stressing the fact that we need to keep Republicans out in general? Or just the Tea Party Conservatives?
Also, Professor “The Ronald”.
I finished my piece on the Tennessee UAW situation. I told you I would provide a link, so here it is…………..
http://manwiththemuckrake.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/tennessee-uaw-and-common-sense/
Now I feel that I must mention this because readers and commenters may be confused. If you click on my name you will be directed to my blog on blogspot.com. I’ve noticed that since I started commenting on your site that my daily visits are up. Which is fine, but that is MY blog of which I dedicated to my own personal biography which I started doing about a year ago. BTW, please feel free to comment or ask questions anyone. Therapeutic reasons of sort. I hope people enjoy it. But I am also an author on another blog. That is where I give my political views. At least until my biography is done. LOLOLOL
The website is——–
http://manwiththemuckrake.wordpress.com/
Hope you enjoy.
MODERATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AAARRRGGGGGGHHHHHH
Thanks, JOB, for making us aware of your writing talents! LOL 🙂
D, once again, all I can say is WOW, and I hope history works for us, as I was not specifically aware of what you have made clear. I had not investigated past midterms in the depth that you have, and I thank you for your insights and brilliance! 🙂
Are you making fun of the little talent that I have? You son of a B…..
LOLOLOL
No, JOB, LOL Actually I am very impressed with you, for real! 🙂