Almost everyone thinks Hillary Clinton is the almost certain Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016.
This entry is NOT designed to attack her credentials, or her worthiness to be President, and it is NOT designed to be critical of Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, Amy Klobuchar, Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren or Brian Schweitzer, other rumored possible candidates.
It is simply an entry to point out the case for Joe Biden for President of the United States!
When one examines Joe Biden’s political career, one can only marvel at his background and experience, although it is well known that often those with far less experience in government end up in the Presidency, as for instance: Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.
But, seriously, if one is to use the measurement of experience in NATIONAL government, NO ONE comes even close to Joe Biden!
Only three Presidents had extensive experience in Congress before becoming President, and two of them became President originally by succession during a term–Andrew Johnson and Lyndon B. Johnson. The person to have the most national experience was, sadly, James Buchanan, often ranked as the absolutely worst President we have ever had in our nation’s history.
So one might say, see what happens when you put an experienced person in national government in the Presidency–that they turn out to be disasters, such as Andrew Johnson and Buchanan, and with much dissatisfaction with Lyndon B. Johnson for the Vietnam War escalation.
But it is really unfair to judge having experience as meaning an ultimate failure, and the point is that Joe Biden has a total of 44 years of experience in national government, unmatched in our history, and only Republican Presidential nominee Bob Dole in 1996 coming close, with 36 years of Congressional service!
Biden has unmatched experience and expertise in both foreign policy and legal matters, as he was Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman at different times.
Joe Biden is as skilled with working with the opposition party as Lyndon B. Johnson was in the 1950s, but for a much longer period of time.
Joe Biden would have the ability to get things done, that, arguably, Hillary Clinton would not have, and that other, less experienced Democratic nominees would not have!
Joe Biden is an extremely charming, charismatic , warm human being, and extremely likable and genuine. What you see is what you get, and Biden would be one of the most colorful and dynamic Presidents, were he to gain the Oval Office.
Joe Biden’s shortcomings are his age (although he has tremendous energy and shows no signs of slowing); his tendency to make verbal gaffes (although he has never said anything that did more than make him look foolish and really, human, in that regard); and his one great sin, if that is what it is to be called. That “sin” is having plagiarized in some speeches, and possibly in a term paper in his college years. This is certainly to be criticized, and it knocked him out of the 1988 Presidential race, which, however, was lucky, since he soon suffered an aneurysm, which required brain surgery. One could be concerned that he could have a repeat aneurysm, but it has been 27 years since that event, with no sign of that problem emerging.
The important thing, as always, with any Presidential candidate, is to have a strong, competent, decent running mate for Vice President, in case something tragic occurs, which can happen to anyone at any age! It is not a reason to dismiss someone for President, considering Lyndon B. Johnson’s heart troubles, and Dick Cheney’s multiple heart problems, among other cases of health issues (including John F. Kennedy and Franklin D. Roosevelt), faced by candidates for President and Vice President, as well as those holding the offices.
One thing is very clear! iF Joe Biden were to become President, he would do the nation proud, and we would know we have a President who has our backs, as he does not have a mean bone in his body, and really is compassionate and caring about all of us!
And also, Joe Biden is as close to an “average guy” as we will ever get, a guy who is likely close to the poorest politician throughout his career, living off his and his wife’s salaries, and off sales of his autobiography in recent years. He is not materialistic in the way other officeholders are, and has never had even a hint of scandal in his personal life or his financial life.
That is the kind of man that America deserves in the White House!
Great piece of writing. The Vice President is a good man and well qualified to be President of the United States.
Unfortunately for Joe, Hillary will almost certainly run in 2016. I’d fall to the floor in disbelief if she announced in November that she wasn’t going to run.
Her “Shadow Campaign” is up and running: Ready For Hillary, Priorities USA, Correct the Record and EMILY’s List. Each group has disparate responsibilities and functions. (Grassroots organizations are already being set up in IA and NH by Ready For Hillary.)
Also, Harold Ickes didn’t rejoin the DNC rules and bylaws panel, Jim Messina didn’t join Priorities USA, Jeremy Bird and Mitch Stewart didn’t join Ready For Hillary and big money Democrats like George Soros and Jeffrey Katzenberg didn’t donate money to Hillary supporting Super PACs on a whim. It seems obvious there’s a near certitude among them that Hillary is running.
If HRC has whims about running for president, she should have decided on them by now. If she has concerns about running in 2016, she needs to decide now so that other potential candidates can ramp up their campaigns.
If she announces in November that she has decided to spend more time with her family, what will her legacy be among all those tens of millions of Americans who are being led to believe she’s running?
When Markos “kos” Moulitsas writes this article, you can forget about a legitimate fight from the left against HRC.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/17/1278315/-The-real-primary-fight-of-2016-and-it-s-not-an-alternative-to-Hillary
Robert, I admit that Hillary is almost certain to be the nominee, but I felt a need to pitch in for my favorite politician since Hubert Humphrey, Joe Biden! I will not be unhappy if she is elected, and I am sure she would easily overwhelm any GOP nominee!
This comment is off subject (My apologies), but I wanted to put forward the twelve reasons I think HRC will win the 2016 Florida Presidential election.
1) 55% of the 2012 Florida presidential electorate were female voters.
HRC should pick up notably more married white women than Obama did. Also, college educated white women lost in 2012 seem to be returning to the Democratic fold.
2) Demographic changes favor Democratic nominee.
In 2016 African Americans will represent 14.5% of the electorate vs. 13% in 2012. In 2016 Hispanics will represent 19.4% of the electorate vs. 17% in 2012.
Some 300,000 new Hispanics will get registered to vote in 2016, and they’ll break overwhelmingly for Democrats.
Large increase in Puerto Ricans voters. – The Sunshine State had the largest flow of people moving both to and from Puerto Rico, where a net of 14,997 came to Florida in 2012.
Mr. Obama’s 2012 margin of victory in Florida grows from almost 75,000 to more than 300,000 if you apply expected 2016 demographic changes to 2012 election.
3) Not much room for growth among Florida whites for Republicans.
Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004.
“Romney achieved crushing margins among culturally Southern whites. North Florida displayed the same voting patterns as Alabama. In the 27 northern-most counties, Romney clobbered Obama with 61.2% of the two-party vote. Given that 20% of voters in these counties are black and another two to three percent are Latino, Romney must have won a full 80% of white votes in North Florida. These figures include cosmopolitan Leon and Duval counties, two areas in which Obama showed some strength. In the pine barrens of the panhandle, Romney won 9 out of 10 white votes.”
Nate Cohn says roughly 25% of Florida white vote is Jewish or non-Christian, which went heavily to Obama.
2012 FL Vote by Religion: Jewish 5%(Obama 66-30%) No Religion 15%(Obama 72-26%) Other 6%(Obama 68-28%)
4) HRC will do better with whites in some northern Florida counties than Obama did.
A study finds counties of persuadable voters who shunned Obama because of his race in 2008. Almost all of these counties are poor, heavily white, and racially conservative. They are places where downscale whites were willing to back Kerry, but refused to back Obama. Four groups of these counties were in important states: southwestern Pennsylvania, southeastern Ohio, southwestern Virginia, and north Florida.
5) New York lost 59,228 residents to Florida in 2012, the most any one state saw move to another as wounds from the financial crisis began healing for Empire State baby boomers… The ages with the highest proportions of migrants to Florida were 18, 19, 21, 24, 28, 40 and 55.
6) HRC has a good relationship with the Jewish community and will do better than Pres. Obama did with Jewish voters in 2012.
7) Analyzing data compiled by the Orlando Sentinel, Ohio State University professor Theodore Allen estimated last week that at least 201,000 voters likely gave up in frustration on Nov. 6, 2012 based on research Allen has been doing on voter behavior.
In Florida, he concluded, the lost voters appeared to favor President Barack Obama. Of the 201,000 “missing” votes, 108,000 likely would have voted for Obama and 93,000 for Republican Mitt Romney, he said. This suggests that Obama’s margin over Romney in Florida could have been roughly 15,000 votes higher than it was.
8) Florida Voter Rights groups hope to put a voter “restoration amendment” on ballot in 2016. This could drive up the African American turnout.
“Their mobilizing strategy includes trying to locate most or all of the 1.5 million disenfranchised ex-offenders in the state and ask them to find ten friends or family members who will vote for the ballot referendum on their behalf.
“Part of the reason there has been low turnout in black communities is that the issues and candidates that [political parties] try to turn African-Americans out for have been abstract,†says Meade.
…rather than asking people to come out and vote for Candidate X, they’re asking people to vote for their brother, sister, father, cousin or friend. There’s nothing that sounds more fundamentally right than that.”
9) Univisión will be backing HRC. Haim Saban is chairman and partial owner of Univisión Communications Inc. and a huge supporter of Hillary Clinton.
It’s already happening. (NY Times) “Hillary Rodham Clinton is unveiling a multi-year partnership here Tuesday with Univision, the influential Spanish-language media company, to promote the education, health and well-being of young children.”
10) Generational Replacement – In 2012 President Obama won 60 percent of Florida’s Cuban American voters born in the United States.
11) If Republicans don’t pass an immigration bill with amnesty, Mexican Hispanics will punish GOP in Florida.
David Plouffe (Twitter Feb 7, 2014) “Immig reform easiest thing Cong can do to create growth & reduce deficit. GOP won’t win NV, CO, FL w/out it.”
12) Could a potential Gov. Crist expand felon voting rights in 2015?
African Americans comprise half of all Florida prisoners but only 15 percent of the state’s overall population.
Between April 2007 and June 2008, 123,256 Florida felons had their voting rights restored, 13,517 of them didn’t receive notification letters and are not registered voters in Florida.
Thanks, Robert, for an excellent presentation, and it is hard to disagree with you regarding Hillary, but my heart is still with Joe! LOL
Gee, Professor.
Joe Biden living off the residuals from his autobiography?
I didn’t realize the one dollar remainder bin at Barnes and Noble was so lucrative. ; )
Personally, I don’t think either HRC or Biden will be waving from the podium with the balloons and confetti falling down at the DNC convention in ’16, unless they are standing next to the ultimate winner.
Paul, you are so funny! LOL
So I assume, Paul, you think Martin O’Malley or Elizabeth Warren will be the next President? I am curious to see your answer!
Professor. I’m not got in the prognostication game. I picked the Broncos in the Super Bowl. I will say that Andrew Cuomo seems like the dark horse coming up from the outside, to use horse race parlance.
Hmmm, Andrew Cuomo. I will say this, that Andrew Cuomo is NO Mario Cuomo! LOL I am not, personally, thrilled with Andrew Cuomo, and he has angered liberals with his fights with Mayor Bill De Blasio of New York City. There is just something about Cuomo, which I cannot pinpoint, that makes me uncomfortable with Cuomo, so I prefer Warren or O’Malley, if Joe and or Hillary do not run.
In fact, I have stated in postings on this blog my belief that it would be better to go for a new generation of leadership, as with Kennedy in 1960, Carter in 1976, Clinton in 1992 and Obama in 2008. We shall see!
That’s why Cuomo is the dark horse. He is going to need more than the liberal vote to win. I prefer to think of him as pragmatic with no baggage attached to the present administration.
Face it, 2016 is going to be the Republican and Koch Brothers focus on the “failed” policies of the prior President and anything attached to it will be unfairly radioactive.
Look at the mid-terms for this year. Many are shying away from any direct support from the President, at least in the “hinterlands”.
Clinton was not any liberals pick back in ’92 (I was hoping for Tsongas, myself). But, he turned out to be the right Democratic candidate at the right time.
You may have to settle for a candidate who is more pragmatic, than progressive.
Paul, you are correct. But I would argue that maybe Mark Warner would be better than Andrew Cuomo, if you are looking for a more “pragmatic” candidate, and remember Cuomo is associated with Hillary and Bill Clinton, as he was in the Clinton Administration as HUD Secretary.
I would argue that O’Malley and Amy Klobuchar have no direct connection to Obama either.
And looking back to 1992, I actually preferred a Senator retiring this year, Tom Harkin of Iowa, and remember that Paul Tsongas died on the last day of the first Clinton term, from a return of cancer. A good man, but I found Harkin more exciting, and even Bob Kerrey. Jerry Brown I did not take seriously, but imagine, he is back as an effective Governor of California, 28 years after leaving the Governorship in 1982!
“Does he have the energy to hurl himself into an exercise—a run for president—that could end up in a loss? Does he have the drive, the will to raise millions from strangers?” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/13/what-will-joe-biden-do.html