It is amazing to this author and blogger that so many Americans seem to think that the election victory of Hillary Clinton is narrowing, according to some public opinion polls.
There is a failure to understand that news media have an investment in building up that there is a real battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, when there is absolutely no realistic chance for Donald Trump to overcome the deficits that he has created for himself over the past 15 months.
The point to be made is that it is the Electoral College and 270 electoral votes that elects our President, and in fact, as George W. Bush reminded us, a candidate can actually lose the national popular vote and still be elected President, as happened in 2000, and also in 1824, 1876, and 1888.
There are 18 “Blue” states and the District of Columbia, which have voted Democratic from 1992 on, and are not about to change. But even if Pennsylvania and Wisconsin somehow surprised us, which is not going to happen in the real world, Hillary Clinton is presently ahead in all of the “Swing” states that Barack Obama won, plus she is even or slightly ahead in a number of “Red” states.
If she wins the likely 242 from the 18 states and DC, all Hillary needs is Florida OR Ohio and Virginia OR a combination of other “Swing” or “Red” states, the latter including, possibly North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Utah, Montana, South Carolina, and even in new polls the states of Texas and Mississippi, and even possibly one vote in Nebraska in the Omaha area, since Nebraska, along with Maine, allows splitting of electoral votes.
To believe that Hillary will somehow lose is totally preposterous, while it can be said that IF the Republican Party had nominated John Kasich, or even possibly, Jeb Bush, all bets would have been off.
And while Gary Johnson will have some effect in some states, the Libertarian nominee is not going to be the spoiler he thought he would be.
And the Green Party and Jill Stein—just forget it, not worth one’s time and attention!
I’ve seen on forums and social media that some CNN poll underrepresented millennials. I don’t know if it’s true but it wouldn’t surprise me if polling is being skewed.
A local blog we read is taking a poll. Most of the votes are confident but nervous. http://bluevirginia.us/2016/09/poll-feeling-presidential-race-days
To use a baseball analogy, Professor, the 1960 World Series was won by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 7 games. The Yankees scored 51 runs to the Pirates 24.
The “run,” poll would have given the Series to the Yankees.
You get the idea…A month later, one of the closest Presidential elections gave the nod to JFK over Richard Milhous Nixon.
Yes, Paul, but as you know, the JFK election seems suspicious that it was a fixed election, exactly what Trump is starting to claim now!
Professor,
I have read that Nixon privately blamed some of his Watergate actions on the subterfuge of the 1960 election results.
The break in of the Democratic HQ fits in with that scenario of the ultra paranoia of his determination to be in total control of the results of the 1972 election, even against an opponent that had no chance of defeating him..
Clearly, Nixon was very unstable while President. But Trump would be ever more dangerous!
Nervous. Perfectly describes how I’m feeling about the election.
I am not nervous, Southern Liberal, but very concerned, as it seems as if people are hysterical and paranoid, and writing about that today.
Never underestimate anger, emotion, populism, class division, nationalism in a Presidential election.
Paul, you are correct!
I heard this morning that she’s going back up in the polls.
Washington Monthly has an excellent post concerning polling.Â
http://washingtonmonthly.com/2016/09/21/quick-takes-calm-down/#.V-MB0t2b73Q.facebook