As I am about to project the Presidential race of 2016, it is a good idea to look back at my projections on this blog in 2008 and 2012.
In 2008, I projected a final electoral vote of 364-174 and 28 states, and I was only off by ONE electoral vote, as I projected the state of Missouri with 10 electoral votes would go for Barack Obama over John McCain, rather than Indiana with 11 electoral votes! So by winning Indiana, and not Missouri, Barack Obama won the Electoral College with 365-173.
In 2012, I projected a final electoral vote of 332-206 and 26 states, and was totally correct that Obama would defeat Mitt Romney!
So I hope I will be totally accurate this time, when I announce my projection tomorrow!
So for two elections, I was off by only ONE electoral vote, assuming wrongly that Missouri, not Indiana, would go for Obama in 2008!
Local blog prediction: http://bluevirginia.us/2016/11/11-4-2016-final-presidential-election-assessment
I also predicted all 50 states, plus District of Columbia, correctly. But, I didn’t post any predictions here. (I personally remember having the flu at the time. I slept and awakened just shortly after 07:00 p.m. ET on Election Night. My vote was after 07:00 a.m. ET on Election Day, November 6, 2012.)
I knew that Florida was going to continue its bellwether status (all winners, except in 1960 and 1992, since 1928), and that it would be no than 2 or 3 points redder than Ohio. (Barack Obama, re-elected with winning the popular vote by +3.86, carried Ohio by +2.98 and Florida by +0.88.)
This was the state that had many figuring, “Oh, yes! Mitt Romney will win over Florida.”
They had it wrong. Obama increased his 2008-to-2012 margins in Miami-Dade County (Miami), both in raw vote and percentage points. (In 2008, Obama won Miami-Dade county by 139,280 votes and +16.21 points. In 2012, he carried it by 308,459 votes and +23.77 votes.) It is fine details like that which had many get that state wrong.