Ok, the time has arrived for my final projection on the Presidential election of 2016.
I project that all Barack Obama states will go to Hillary Clinton, except for Iowa–25 of 26 states in 2012–18 “Blue” states plus DC, and 7 “swing” or “purple” states. Iowa would be the only “swing” or “purple” state that would go “Red”.
At the same time, two “Red” or Romney states–North Carolina and Arizona–would swing to the Democrats.
The math means 6 votes are subtracted from Iowa for Clinton, while 26 electoral votes are added to Clinton’s side, with 15 electoral votes from North Carolina and 11 electoral votes from Arizona.
So instead of 332 electoral votes for Obama, the final total for Clinton will be 352, against 186 for Donald Trump as compared to 206 for Romney.
Hillary Clinton would have 27 states to 23 for Trump, as compared to 24 for Romney, so gain of one state for the Democrats.
We shall see how accurate I am in this third round of Presidential Projections after 2008 and 2012.
A more detailed article has been published on History News Network yesterday, and is now posted on this blog as well, on the right hand side!
Hello, Ronald!
I am not officially predicting.
What I will do is give one some level of anticipating.
I have seen a mix of polls. It depends on what you believe. I tend to want to scrutinize numbers; refer to Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight website; and, yes, figure if the U.S. Senate flips Democratic. (If that happens, it’s historically unlikely Donald Trump flips the Democratic-held presidency to the Republican column. That’s not historically the voting pattern.)
What I am going to do is post links to two separate maps.
I consider these maps to be the best-case scenarios, no matter who wins, for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Following the maps will be easy. (They take you to 270towin.com.) Light shades for particular states, and congressional districts, are indicating pickups.
As a guide, I remind a reader that Democratic Party president Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012 in part by winning the U.S. Popular Vote, over Republican Party challenger Mitt Romney, by +3.86 percentage points. (You can call it +4 percentage points. Obama received 51.02 to the 47.16 percent for Mitt Romney. And Obama carried 26 states, plus District of Columbia, for 332 electoral votes.)
In either scenario map, the best Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton can do is shift +6 percentage points in their (and their party’s) direction nationwide.
Here are the links:
* DONALD TRUMP WINS *
http://www.270towin.com/maps/AWAX9
* HILLARY CLINTON WINS *
http://www.270towin.com/maps/y24wn
Thanks, D.
I see that the best projections for Hillary Clinton on 270 to Win add Iowa (6) and Georgia (16) and the one Maine electoral vote in Northern Maine to Hillary ‘s total, a grand total of 375 to 163. I had thought in May on HNN that Hillary would gain these, but now I doubt it, but we shall see!
Ronald writes,
“I see that the best projections for Hillary Clinton on 270 to Win add Iowa (6) and Georgia (16) and the one Maine electoral vote in Northern Maine to Hillary ‘s total, a grand total of 375 to 163. I had thought in May on HNN that Hillary would gain these, but now I doubt it, but we shall see!”
Not exactly.
In 2012, Barack Obama won 26 states, plus District of Columbia, and 332 electoral votes.
The best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton, I would estimate, is her retaining all Obama-carried states and winning pickups from North Carolina (15), if she wins nationally the popular vote by a minimum percentage-points margin of +5; Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (1), if she wins nationally by +7; Arizona (11), if she wins nationally by +7.5 or +8; and Georgia (16), if she wins nationally by +8.5 or, more likely necessary, +9. Those would take the 332 electoral votes up to 375 electoral votes (from carriage of 29 states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and District of Columbia).
For Donald Trump, his best-case scenario is taking all of Mitt Romney’s 24-carried states, as his beginning, and flip up to 7 states for a maximum of 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for 292 electoral votes. Start with Romney’s 206 electoral votes and flip Iowa (6) and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1). Add to it, in the following order, Ohio (18) and Florida (29). That gets him up to 260 electoral votes. Flip Nevada (6), for 266 electoral votes. The tipping-point state from both 2008 and 2012 was Colorado (9). This year, it may be once again…but there is also New Hampshire (4). (That either state gets Trump to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for election.) If Trump is getting Colorado and Iowa, he’s likely going to also carry New Hampshire. There was no more than a 0.44 spread between all three. (Colorado carried in 2012 for Barack Obama at +5.36. New Hampshire was +5.58. Iowa was +5.80.) If he’s shifting two of the three by six points, in order to carry them by +1.00 or less, he’s likely doing that with all three. So, these would all add up to 279 electoral votes. And then there is Virginia (13). In 2008, it was 0.96 from the national margin. (Obama won the popular vote by +7.26 and Virginia by +6.30.) In 2012, there was just a small margin spread of 0.02. (Obama won the popular vote by +3.86 and Virginia by +3.88.)
I based this on the premise that Clinton and Trump, whichever wins, shifts no more than 6 percentage points in their direction. Trump would need to shift 3.87 to win over the popular vote by +0.01. And then there is no guarantee enough states shift to that level to deliver the Electoral College. (Maybe they do. Maybe the don’t. I wouldn’t expect uniformity.) So, I spotted him a couple points maximum (to win nationally by no greater than +2). George W. Bush, with re-election in 2004, won nationally by +2.46. I figured I should also give that consideration to Hillary Clinton; even though that doesn’t at all appear a potential.
I see on another thread a post about the U.S. Senate races. I think the most critical state, like a bellwether for the election, is New Hampshire. That may line up for whichever party wins it; but, not just, tell us which party wins majority control of the U.S. Senate. It may be the most critical state. (That is, if you had to go with just one.)
Thanks, D, for your latest thoughts!
I am going to revise my prediction.
(It would be gutless to not submit predictions which come across as more decisive.)
• Donald Trump — 42.50 percent (estimate) with 24 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, 198 electoral votes
• Hillary Clinton — 48.50 percent (estimate), for a margin between +5.50 and +6.00, with 26 states, District of Columbia, 340 electoral votes
Difference from 2012:
• Iowa (6 electoral votes) and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1 electoral vote) flips from 2012 Democratic to 2016 Republican for Donald Trump — +7
• North Carolina (15 electoral votes) flips from 2012 Republican to 2016 Democratic for Hillary Clinton — +15
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Nekjd