This blogger has written recently on the potential field of candidates for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination, with him emphasizing the desirability of a “newer” generation of leadership in their 40s and 50s.
But having said that, the possibility does exist that the major battle for the nomination could be between two upper septuagenarians with long political careers, and many people who greatly admire them.
I am referring to former Vice President Joe Biden, who also served 36 years in the US Senate from Delaware; and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has served 27 years in Congress, in both the House of Representatives and Senate as the first successful long term Independent Socialist, who only became a Democrat when he announced for President, and now is officially an Independent again, although he caucuses with the Democrats.
Biden will be 78 two weeks after the 2020 election, and Sanders will be 79 shortly before that election.
Both are dedicated public servants, who have millions of admirers who remain ready to support their favorite candidate, if they decide to run for President.
Biden is comparatively more centrist, while Sanders is the extreme left of the Democratic Party.
Were both to run, while they would have many other candidates competing, it could be a battle royal for the ages, with their advanced age being an issue, although Donald Trump, were he to run in 2020, would be 74 and a half at the time of the election.
We have never had two people in their 70s as the alternatives, although Hillary Clinton was 69 in 2016.
Trying to predict who would triumph is quite a challenge, but this author thinks that Biden would have an easier time, with his Establishment credentials, and with Sanders still having to deal with the “Socialist” label, and being Jewish, even though he is not at all devout.
In the long run, however, it would still be preferable to have a “newer generation” of leadership leading the Democratic Party and the nation into the 2020s.
I’ve already mentioned that I figure the Republicans—with or without President Donald Trump—will retain the White House with Election 2020. Turns out that Camille Paglia agrees. She has her reasons. This video is a long discussion; but the focus on the topic is covered up to the 26-minute mark.
http://youtu.be/zYshb3ojgDo
I have not yet had time to watch this, but I vehemently disagree that the Republicans will win in 2020.
Trump will not be there in 2020, and if he is, he will lose in a landslide.
Pence is scarred by connection with Trump, and no one else is going to be able to overcome the Trump stain, as the GOP fails to organize against him at a crucial time like now.
The only way the GOP wins is voter suppression on a large scale, and if the American people are lax on voting when they can, and I think the Trump disaster will motivate people to vote in massive numbers against a party which is destroying the domestic reforms from TR onward, and threatening our national security every day!
Ronald,
I mentioned this on a previous thread: presidential elections in which the White House switches party occupancy does not tend to flip back to the party which lost it with the very next presidential election cycle.
This is key to why incumbents get re-elected. Most who win their first term do so as a party-pickup winner: 1952 Dwight Eisenhower (R), 1960 John Kennedy (D), 1968 Richard Nixon (R), 1992 Bill Clinton (D), 2000 George W. Bush (R), 2008 Barack Obama (D).
The presidency had consecutive party-flipping election cycles with 1976 Jimmy Carter (D) and 1980 Ronald Reagan (R). It was the only time during the 20th century.
If you’re looking to 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump to get unseated with Election 2020, I would say it would happen under mass unemployment. That it was essentially unseated 1932 Republican incumbent Herbert Hoover, 1980 Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter, and 1992 Republican incumbent George Bush.
You are correct, D, with historical fact, but we are in a unusual situation, and I see Pence succeeding Trump, pardoning him, and losing in 2020, as with Ford after Nixon, and losing to Carter.
One thing I will say is this: I am not wanting to make some official prediction. But, I don’t like the idea of disregarding historical pattern. So, that is why I posted Election 2020 as a sense, from me, that it will be a Republican hold of the presidency.
There are trade-offs.
Due to the 17th Amendment, which made 1914 the first midterm election on the schedule going forward, 23 of the last 26 midterm election cycles saw the opposition party win the overall gains. The U.S. House (2010) flips before the U.S. Senate (2014). Even on Midterm Election Night 2006, the House flipped first.
If I turn out to be correct…the Democrats will win majority pickups between midterm election cycles 2018 and 2022. That they would win back the presidency in 2024.
Given the current plight of the Democratic Party, for offices not the presidency, this is very important. How they pursue this is the most urgent discussion.
I agree totally with you, D, on this point.