In the midst of Democratic Party “morass”, stirred up further by Donna Brazile”s new book, and the lack of leadership and a new agenda, other than to wait for Donald Trump to implode, it is alarming those who want an aggressive approach to revive Democratic fortunes.
The clear need for a new generation of leadership is clear cut, but at this point, some are starting to notice that the Governor of the largest state is actively on the attack against the Trump Administration on the issues of the environment, immigration, gun regulations, and more. He is the great progressive star. Who are we referring to?
We are talking about Jerry Brown, who is 79 years old, and will leave the Governorship a year from now at age 80.
Some are wondering could a 82 year old four time Governor of California, at age 36-44 and then 72-80, actually mount a Presidential campaign for the fourth time, after trying in 1976, 1980 and 1992–so 44, 40 and 28 years ago?
It seems crazy to imagine it, but it also demonstrates how weak the Democrats seem to be, as we start to consider Presidential candidates in 2020 for the Democrats.
All one can say is IF we are to even think about Jerry Brown, then we cannot dismiss Joe Biden (78 in 2020), or Elizabeth Warren (71 in 2020), and even Bernie Sanders (79 in 2020).
But this blogger still feels strongly that a new generation in the 40s, 50, and early 60s is the best route to travel, and would include such leaders as Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles, Senator Kamala Harris of California, likely future California Governor Gavin Newsom, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and others not often mentioned.
Those are some good choices I would be proud to support.
Very enlightening read:
How Arkansas Went From Blue to Red
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/11/07/how-arkansas-went-from-blue-to-red/#.WgHXdMkiGAY.facebook
Jeffrey Toobin has a fascinating article in the New Yorker titled, “Is Tom Cotton the Future of Trumpism?†In case you had any doubts about that possibility, take a look at this:
Stephen Bannon, Trump’s former top strategist and the chairman of the right-wing Web site Breitbart News, told me, “Next to Trump, he’s the elected official who gets it the most—the economic nationalism. Cotton was the one most supportive of us, up front and behind the scenes, from the beginning.
But given that Cotton is currently the U.S. Senator from Arkansas, Toobin devotes some ink to describing how that state went from blue to red. The transition came a bit later than a lot of other states that are considered to be part of the “Deep South.â€
Arkansas, though generally regarded as a Southern state, exists at a crossroads of regions that have been slipping away from Democrats for decades…
“For a long time, Arkansas Democratic politics was kept separate from national Democratic politics,†John Brummett, a political columnist at the Democrat-Gazette, the leading newspaper in the state, told me. “That continued in Arkansas through the nineties and into the two-thousands, because of Clinton. White rural conservatives here could look on the national Democratic Party and see the same guy as President that they were happy enough with in Arkansas.†But the trends that were altering the politics of neighboring states were percolating in Arkansas as well. “ ‘God, guns, and gays’—social issues—were driving white conservatives to the Republicans all along,†Brummett said.
Take a look at what two local people identify as the tipping point.
Max Brantley, a longtime local journalist, now with the Arkansas Times, said, “It is impossible not to see race as a central element in the fall of the Democratic Party here.†After the crisis over the integration of Little Rock Central High School, in 1957, racial politics in the state calmed for a time. This was in part because of the relatively small number of African-Americans; they make up roughly fifteen per cent of the population, as opposed to thirty per cent in the Deep South. “Discrimination was not as evident in Arkansas as it was in other Southern states,†Joyce Elliott, a veteran state senator, said. “It took a black President to bring out the threat.†She added, “I would always say to my liberal white friends, ‘Oh, come on, surely it’s gotten better.’ And they’d say to me, ‘Oh, no, it hasn’t. You can’t believe what white people say about Obama in private—he’s Kenyan, he’s Muslim, they’d call him unprintable racial epithets.’ †Brantley told me, “You needed to be here to see how quickly the politics changed after Obama came in. He is so deeply disliked here. I think a lot of people in Arkansas thought he was ‘uppity,’ to use the old smear.â€
This is the element that many white liberals miss when attempting to analyze why so many working class white people abandoned the Democratic Party. The transition was in the works based on the so-called “social issues.†That is precisely why Karl Rove used gay marriage as a wedge issue in the 2004 election. You can see it all happening in the results of the last seven presidential races in Arkansas.
1992 – Clinton by 17.7
1996 – Clinton by 16.9
2000 – Bush by 5.4
2004 – Bush by 9.7
2008 – McCain by 19.9
2012 – Romney by 23.7
2016 – Trump by 26.9
That is a swing of over 44 percentage points from Democrat to Republican over the span of 24 years. As Jonathan Chait noted after watching the movie 12 Years a Slave, the election of our first African American president signaled an “unforgivable crime†that took Arkansas from being a potential swing state to deeply red.
Notably, the most horrific torture depicted in 12 Years a Slave is set in motion when the protagonist, Solomon Northup, offers up to his master engineering knowledge he acquired as a free man, thereby showing up his enraged white overseer. It was precisely Northup’s calm, dignified competence in the scene that so enraged his oppressor. The social system embedded within slavery as depicted in the film is one that survived long past the Emancipation Proclamation – the one that resulted in the murder of Emmett Till a century after Northup published his autobiography. It’s a system in which the most unforgivable crime was for an African-American to presume himself an equal to — or, heaven forbid, better than — a white person.
What this analysis doesn’t take into account is the way that everyone from the right wing media to the birther movement to white evangelical leaders like Franklin Graham played into all of this with their constant framing of Barack Obama as a black Muslim threat. That exacerbated the racism that was available for exploitation. To the extent that I’ll give Donald Trump credit for being a strategic thinker, that is precisely why he chose to launch himself onto the national political stage by resurrecting the whole birther lie. He knew that openly fanning the flames of racial resentment would be a winner among the group that he needed to mobilize.
The reason this is critical to understand is that today two states are holding gubernatorial elections where the Republican candidates are attempting to win by playing on these same fears to mobilize those voters in Virginia and New Jersey. If they succeed, that will be the template for Republicans in the 2018 midterms. The reason Steve Bannon wants to inflame these issues and pretends to love it when liberals respond is that he thinks that’s a winning formula for white nationalism. We’ll soon see.
Yes, Pragmatic Progressive, the race issue is still alive and thriving in the South and the Mid West.
We cannot get past that issue, even with an African American President.
In fact, that reality set us back!
Speaking of guns, the NRA somehow got me on their mailing list and sent me a membership card. I tore it up and mailed it back to them in their business reply envelope.
Ronald writes, “Some are wondering could [Jerry Brown, an 82 year old four time Governor of California, at age 36-44 and then 72-80,] actually mount a Presidential campaign for the fourth time, after trying in 1976, 1980 and 1992–so 44, 40 and 28 years ago?â€
No.
And I’m not wondering.
There is a better shot for Bernie Sanders, who is three years younger than Jerry Brown, becoming the 2020 Democratic nominee for president of the United States—in spite of all the efforts by a conspiring Democratic Party Establishment to stop Sanders—than there is for Jerry Brown.
I consider Jerry Brown a thing of the past.
What follows is an interesting report from the following (which does include some insight into the former and current Governor of California).
. . . . .
Democrats Fought For 25 Years Over Single-Payer. Now Many Back Medicare-For-All
By Alex Kotch and David Sirota (09.12.2017)
http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/democrats-fought-25-years-over-single-payer-now-many-back-medicare-all-2589117
1992: Jerry Brown Promises Single-Payer
During his campaign for president, California Gov. Jerry Brown was unequivocal in his support for a government-sponsored, single-payer health care system. During a Democratic primary debate with Bill Clinton, Brown declared : “My preference is that we create a single system, put everyone under a universal health care system. We treat health care not as a commodity to be played with for profit but rather the right of every American citizen when they’re born.â€
“And since you have only one source of income in the whole medical establishment, you can drive down the cost,†he said. “With the holding down of the cost, you can eliminate the intermediary, the middle man, the bureaucracy.â€
2017: California Passes Single Payer Again, [Jerry] Brown Blocks It
Brown, serving his fourth term as governor of California, differs from the Brown of 1992. The California state Senate passed a single-payer bill, but Brown and California House Speaker Anthony Rendon opposed and helped shelve it. Brown questioned where the money would come from, saying that the single-payer concept “is called ‘the unknown by means of the more unknown’… In other words, you take a problem and say, ‘I am going to solve it by something that’s…a bigger problem,’ which makes no sense.â€
. . . . .
Jerry Brown went in completely the opposite direction from where the country is heading on this issue. He is out of touch. (Willfully.)
WOW, D, I had lost track of Jerry Brown on that issue, so thanks for the update and explanation!
Hooray!!!! Virginia rejected Trumpism!!!!!! 🙂
Steve Kornacki was breaking down the results. Gillespie is getting creamed in Northern Virginia, around Richmond, Tidewater!!!! Love it!!! 🙂
My favorite tweet of the day that became a meme:
https://twitter.com/lyzl/status/927914461737963520/photo/1
Some good news about House of Delegates: https://twitter.com/waldojaquith/status/928066584278642688
CNN exit polling showed Northam strongest among middle class:
https://twitter.com/alexhoneker/status/928054389566296064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dbluevirginia%26t_i%3D35601%2520http%253A%252F%252Fbluevirginia.us%252F%253Fp%253D35601%26t_u%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fbluevirginia.us%252F2017%252F11%252Flive-blog-virginia-election-results-2017%26t_e%3DLive%2520Blog%253A%2520Virginia%2520Election%2520Results%25202017%26t_d%3DLive%2520Blog%253A%2520Virginia%2520Election%2520Results%25202017%26t_t%3DLive%2520Blog%253A%2520Virginia%2520Election%2520Results%25202017%26s_o%3Dasc%26l%3D%23version%3D6f48ff7efc016ebe1db52c0ed7ec35cc
Some CNN exit poll information for Governor of Virginia (projected for Democratic nominee Ralph Northam): http://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/virginia-governor
• Males (51): Ed Gillespie 53% | Ralph Northam 45% (R+8)
• Females (49): Gillespie 40% | Northam 59% (D+19)
If these numbers hold (once all votes are in), estimate outcome:
• Ed Gillespie 46.63% (46 or 47 percent)
• Ralph Northam 51.86% (51 or 52 percent)
Atlas of U.S. Elections has it (so far):
• Ed Gillespie 46.76%
• Ralph Northam 52.05% (D+5.29)
Exit poll numbers can get adjusted.
It looks like Ralph Northam, in a Democratic hold, wins this election by about +5 (maybe +6). The 2013 Democratic pickup winner of 2013, Terry McAuliffe, had a margin of +2.52. So, if this is consistent with final results, it would be a 2013-to-2017 Democratic shift of, say, +3 (or +4).
538 blog reporting that Northam is running an average of 7.6 points ahead of where Clinton performed last year.
https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/928062143844507648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwashingtonmonthly.com%2F2017%2F11%2F07%2Fquick-takes-live-blog-and-open-thread-for-election-results%2F
Fantastic news for Virginia, for Democrats, and for the nation! 🙂
New Jersey has results that don’t quite catch fully what will still come from the northern area of the state and close to bordering the Garden State with neighboring New York.
CNN Exit poll results so far (08:45 p.m. ET; less than an hour after the state’s polls closed; and with projection of a Democratic pickup for Phil Murphy): http://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/new-jersey-governor
• Males (48): Kim Guadagno 40% | Phil Murphy 58% (R+18)
• Females (52): Guadagno 40% | Murphy 58% (D+17)
If these numbers hold (once all votes are in), estimate outcome:
• Kim Guadagno 40.52% (39 or 40 percent)
• Phil Murphy 58.00% (57 or 58 percent)
Atlas of U.S. Elections has it (so far with its reported raw votes):
• Kim Guadagno 39.67%
• Phil Murphy 57.69% (D+18.02)
In 2013, Republican incumbent Chris Christie was re-elected with a margin of +22.11. So, this is looking to be about a 40-point shift from 2013 to 2017 Democratic pickup.
Great news for New Jersey and the nation!
Correction:
“• Males (48): Kim Guadagno 40% | Phil Murphy 58% (R+18)
• Females (52): Guadagno 40% | Murphy 58% (D+17)â€
It should read:
• Males (48): Kim Guadagno 40% | Phil Murphy 58% (D+18)
• Females (52): Guadagno 40% | Murphy 58% (D+17)
Phil Murphy’s Democratic pickup for Governor of New Jersey includes carriage of both genders. Landslides. (I had the wrong letter.)
Princess Leia writes,
“Hooray!!!! Virginia rejected Trumpism!!!!!!â€
It looks to me like Virginia is now with the Democrats.
In 2013, it broke the pattern of electing a governor from the White House for the first time prior to 1977.
In 2016, as the Democrats lost the White House (after having it for two terms and carrying Virginia, with both, for Barack Obama), the state was won by Hillary Clinton. It went from Obama’s No. 24 best-performed state, from 28 (won in 2008) and 26 (won with re-election in 2012), to being Hillary’s No. 15 (as she carried 20 while Donald Trump won 30).
Virginia’s best companion state is Colorado. It was Obama’s No. 23 in both 2008 and 2012. It was the tipping point state in both elections. It was Hillary’s No. 16. The two states were only 0.41 in margins spread in 2016. (They have been no more than 3.53 in margins spread since 2004. Since 1948, they carried differently only in 1996.)
Thanks for the analysis, D, much appreciated!
Democrat Chris Hurst has unseated Republican Delegate Joseph Yost in Blacksburg’s District 12. Hurst is the former WDBJ7 news anchor whose girlfriend, reporter Alison Parker, was killed on live television in 2015. He ran with the support of gun control groups.
Thanks for that Southern Liberal. I was rooting for him.
That is WONDERFUL news, Southern Liberal! 🙂
If Democrats can somehow win a pickup with the special U.S. Senate election in Alabama, then I will move my initial rating of Tossup to Lean Democratic for a likely pickup with the 2018 midterm elections. (I already think the U.S. House will flip. Of course, I can change my mind.)
Regarding the November 7, 2017 gubernatorial elections: Due to the fact that Virginia is a Democratic hold, I am more interested in the Democratic pickup of New Jersey. (Democratic pickup winner Phil Murphy looks to have flipped that state with a 2013-to-2017 Democratic shift of about +40 percentage points. That is a lot in New Jersey. And in a non-presidential year.)
The Republicans hold 34 governor mansions. The Democrats hold 15. The +1 from New Jersey will reduce the Rs to 33 and increase the Ds to 16.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors
There is the potential of a Democratic midterm wave for 2018 which can actually result in the Democrats winning the +10 pickups they will need to overtake the majority for governor mansions.
From the next link, appearing at the bottom, are the states on the schedule for 2018. There are 36 in all. And nine are from the Top 10 populous.
In order to get to that needed +10, following New Jersey, I would imagine the 2018 Democrats should win pickups from a combination of the following Republican-held governorships (numerous are based on historical pattern of electing governors opposite the White House party):
1. Arizona
2. Illinois
3. Iowa
4. Kansas
5. Maine
6. Maryland
7. Massachusetts
8. Michigan
9. Nebraska
10. New Hampshire
11. New Mexico
12. Ohio
13. Oklahoma
14. Tennessee
15. Wisconsin
16. Wyoming
Another one is Florida. But, I haven’t followed the state. The state Democrats are notorious for not winning winnable elections. (I am curious with Georgia. That is state is poised to flip in the next presidential election which switches from the Republican to the Democratic column.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018
Rachel Maddow is reporting that Northam is winning by more than the polls said. Other wins have been Lt. Governor and Attorney General. And it looks more and more like Democrats have a good chance to win the 17 seats they need to pick up the House of Delegates.
11.07.2017 @ 09:30 p.m. ET | Update on election for Governor of Virginia:
CNN exit polls have adjusted numbers pointing to a better margin for Ralph Northam. Instead of carrying men by +8, Republican nominee Ed Gillespie is winning them by just +3. Instead of carrying women by +19, Northam is winning them by +21. That would point to a margin of not +5 or +6 but more like +8 or +9.
. . . . .
• Males (51): Ed Gillespie 51% | Ralph Northam 48% (R+3)
• Females (49): Gillespie 39% | Northam 60% (D+21)
If these numbers hold (once all votes are in), estimate outcome:
• Ed Gillespie 45.12% (44 or 45 percent)
• Ralph Northam 53.88% (53 or 54 percent)
Atlas of U.S. Elections has it (so far from raw-vote numbers):
• Ed Gillespie 45.41%
• Ralph Northam 53.41% (D+8.00)
CNN has this at 99 percent precinct reported:
• Ed Gillespie 45.3%
• Ralph Northam 53.6% (D+8.2 or D+8.3)
It looks like Ralph Northam, in a Democratic hold, wins this election by about +8 (maybe closer to +9). The 2013 Democratic pickup winner of 2013, Terry McAuliffe, had a margin of +2.52. So, if this is consistent with final results, it would be a 2013-to-2017 Democratic shift of, say, +6.
Dump is speaking on South Korea now. Before his speech he tweeted, complaining that Gillespie didn’t embrace him enough. I very much disagree with his analysis. Gillespie lost because of the president’s unpopularity, not because he didn’t embrace the president enough.
Speaking of women, something that’s going on with the women’s vote in the state, and more specifically the white women’s vote.
Northam is outpacing Clinton with women in a way that’s pretty striking to me: He’s winning 60 percent of women overall, compared to Clinton’s 56 percent, according to the exit polls. He’s winning white women with 48 percent compared to Clinton’s 41 percent, white women without a college education 32 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent and white women with a college degree 57 percent to Clinton’s 50 percent.
He isn’t, however, winning black women at the same rate that Clinton did.
Some more good news. Anti-LGBT lawmaker in Virginia was defeated and will be replaced by first transgender state representative.
https://thinkprogress.org/transgender-virginia-delegate-520f208e7b3f/
Update @ 10:05 p.m. ET:
From CNN’s Exit Polls.
Here is Party ID:
Governor of Virginia—combined numbers
• Republican (30): Ed Gillespie 95.5% | Ralph Northam 4.5% (R+91)
• Democratic (41): Gillespie 3% | Northam 96.5% (D+93)
• Independent (28): Gillespie 50% | Northam 47.5 (R+2.5)
(Two-party winner for participation: D+11)
Governor of New Jersey—combined numbers
• Republican (28): Kim Guadagno 91% | Phil Murphy 8% (R+83)
• Democratic (43): Guadagno 5% | Murphy 94% (D+89)
• Independent (29): Guadagno 44.5% | Murphy 50.5 (D+6)
(Two-party winner for participation: D+15)
Summary: In both states, participation from those who self-identify Democratic outnumbered those who self-identify Republican. The margin was above D+10 in both states. Add to this that gubernatorial winning Democrats Ralph Northam and Phil Murphy won their same-party identifying voters by better margins than their Republican opponents. (Murphy was a good +6.) Northam did not carry independents. But, his margin loss was not substantial. The participation level by self-identifying Democrats way outnumbered those on other side. New Jersey Democratic pickup winner Murphy carried self-identifying independents by a strong +6.
Conclusion: If this is a preview of what is to come in the midterm elections of 2018, it should be quite good for the White House opposition Democratic Party.
Fantastic news, Princess Leia and D! 🙂
It occurs to me that I do, from time to time, submit information in abundance. That some of it can be too much. But, these pieces of information are to help people get a good sense of what may be coming—and why that is. This is why I am including…the details; the numerous details.
D, we all appreciate your efforts! 🙂
Northam’s margin is the highest for a Democrat in 32 years.
I know, and thank you, Ronald.
UPDATE @ 10:55 p.m. ET:
Virginia delivered three Democratic holds on all three counts: Governor (Ralph Northam, winning at 10:26 p.m. ET, by +9; a 2013-to-2016 shift of +6.5.); Lieutenant Governor (Justin Fairfax, taking over from Northam, by +5, down from Northam’s margin of +11); and Attorney General (re-election for Mark Herring, by +6.6, up from his 2013 margin of +0.04).
New Jersey delivered a Democratic pickup for Governor for Phil Murphy. Latest CNN exit poll, with adjusted numbers, indicate Murphy would win by a margin of +16, which is up dramatically—coming from the nation’s No. 11 most-populous state (to Virginia’s No. 12)—from the Democrats’ 2013 loss of –22. (That, if it holds, is a good 38-point shift.)
New York, New York mayoral election is re-election for Democratic incumbent Bill de Blasio. (His margin is not as strong as 2013. But, that is not important.)
The special election, to replace Jason Chaffetz, for U.S. House specifically from Utah #03: Chaffetz won re-election, in 2016, by +46.92. (In 2012, when Republicans flipped the U.S. House, Chaffetz won by +49.38.) The elected Republican successor, Provo mayor John Curtis, leads by +33.
This is very good for the Democrats.
Correction:
“(In 2012, when Republicans flipped the U.S. House, Chaffetz won by +49.38.)â€
That was the year 2010.