Five years ago, on this blog, I condemned Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential nominee for the Republican Party, chosen by Presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
I said he was “arrogant, reckless,cocky, overly ideological, uncompromising, inflexible”, as stated at the time, and also say he was and is unprincipled, hypocritical, corrupt and mean spirited. I received harsh criticism from the Right on various websites for my assertions, and they still will attack me, but that does not make me deny what I said and still contend today.
Five years later, Paul Ryan is Speaker of the House, and has proved that he is willing to sell the party he leads to a man he privately despises, as the only way to accomplish his goal of destroying the middle class, and ending Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. An Ayn Rand follower, Ryan also has claimed he is a “good Catholic”, which many Catholic groups would deny, with his hard hearted attitude towards the poor.
Ryan knows his tax proposal is only going to worsen the class division in America, and make the rich wealthier, the poor in even worse shape, and much of the middle class in free fall economically.
Saying after the defeats in the elections last week that the Republicans have made their choice to stand with Donald Trump, despite his reckless and dangerous behavior, is a sign that Ryan is living in a fantasy world of his own making, and it is hoped that his opponent in his Wisconsin district for the 2018 midterm elections, iron worker and US Army veteran Randy Bryce, who has gained a lot of support, ends up retiring Paul Ryan from Congress next November.
Since Tom Foley was defeated for his seat in Washington State and as Speaker in 1994, with a major Republican wave, it is hoped the same will occur in 2018 with a Democratic sweep, to Paul Ryan.
Ronald writes, “Since Tom Foley was defeated for his seat in Washington State and as Speaker in 1994, with a major Republican wave, it is hoped the same will occur in 2018 with a Democratic sweep, to Paul Ryan.’
This would require courage from the Democratic Party [Establishment].
With their current leadership, I don’t think they have it.
In 2012, re-elected Democratic Party U.S. President Barack Obama carried his home state, Illinois, as well as Vice President Joe Biden’s home state, Delaware, but he also won the home states of the losing Republican ticket that were Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. These states were on that voting pattern. Wisconsin, a 2016 Republican pickup for Donald Trump, has transitioned from Democratic to likely bellwether.
For the Democratic Party to flip the U.S. House, with the midterm elections of 2018, to win pickups of Republican-held seats will likely be at a level in which no Democratic-held U.S. Senate seat flips Republican. The state governorship counts would also become a Democratic pickup.
But, for this to be massive, and for it to be profound—at a total level which would include also being able to unseat Paul Ryan from Wisconsin #01—you better field and nominate a Democratic candidate who is the polar opposite of Paul Ryan on policy ideas. Try to paint around the edges—which is what Democrats do with their run to the what they figure to the center (which is a false premise)—and the citizenry in most areas and states will stick with what feels familiar.
I agree, D, with what you are saying, but my impression is that Randy Bryce, Ryan’s Democratic opponent, is a clear progressive!
I certainly hope I am correct and that Bryce will not disappoint us!
Team Blue continues to make gains in places that nobody thought they would ever be able to, places like, say, blood-red suburban Oklahoma.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/democrats-add-to-win-column-in-deep-red-oklahoma/2017/11/14/023da920-c9b7-11e7-b506-8a10ed11ecf5_story.html?utm_term=.9b68b389479a
It’s only a matter of time before the Democrats get wins in the House and Senate, as long-time Republicans see the coming Trump train wreck and are bailing in massive numbers ahead of near-certain midterm defeat.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/359685-mounting-gop-retirements-threaten-majority
Rational Lefty writes, “Team Blue continues to make gains in places that nobody thought they would ever be able to, places like, say, blood-red suburban Oklahoma.â€
Thank you for the link to the article, Rational Lefty, but unfortunately I could not view it without having to pay for access. It was a pop-up letting me know this.
There is a lot to say.
When it comes to U.S. House, the Democrats need to flip +24. Donald Trump’s low-approvals make that very doable to point that it has me recalling Ralph Nader with Election 2008. He said something along the lines of, if Democrats can’t flip the White House with George W. Bush’s job approval in the 20s and 30s percentile range, they may as well hang it up as a party and come back later in some other form.
Trump’s low-approval—consistently in the 30s—is what will yield Democratic gains with the midterm elections of 2018.
So, how would the U.S. House flip. Usually, you think of any Republican seats in states the Democratic nominee carried in the last presidential election. Think of California (Darrell Issa is poised to become unseated), New York, Illinois, Virginia, and Washington. Think of Obama/Trump states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and we are already considering 11 states. Add to this Colorado, the 6th district, and you have this one more state. Look at trending states Georgia and Arizona. Because it is the state with the most rapid population growth, look to Texas. The number of states have a way of adding up. And if you have an average of two congressional districts per state, the Democrats mathematically easily reach their needed +24. It can be bad enough for the Republicans that states with at-large congressional districts—states with 3 electoral votes like Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—could also be factors.
I want to know what happens in the special election in Alabama. If it flips, that makes winning over the U.S. Senate also more easy for the Democrats. With their current 48, they would retain all Democratic-held seats and end up flipping Nevada and Arizona. If the special in Alabama ends up a Republican hold, the 2018 Democrats then have to look at Texas, Tennessee, and Nebraska.
The majority count of governorships would likely follow. The Democrats will start with 16. They need a pickup of +10. Eight states which carried for Hillary Clinton have Republican governors on schedule for 2018. This is in Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Vermont. There are the six states which flipped to Trump: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Only Pennsylvania currently has a Democratic governor.) There are states on a pattern since the 1990s or earlier which have elected governors from the White House opposition party: Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming. A lot of states are mentioned. Reaching 26 with flipping ten—in a midterm election wave for the Democrats—is achievable.
A great analysis, again, D, and one can only hope the Democrats do NOT screw it up, and fail to accomplish a massive swing, as a result of Donald Trump, in 2018, and beyond!
I didn’t get a pop-up like that when I clicked on it and I am able to read it for free. Here’s what the WaPo article says:
Democrats flip 1 more seat in Oklahoma’s GOP-led Legislature
Democrats have flipped another statehouse seat in deeply conservative Oklahoma amid growing frustration over years of state budget shortfalls and recent scandals that led to the resignation of Republican incumbents.
Democrat Allison Ikley-Freeman defeated Republican Brian O’Hara in Tuesday’s special election for a state Senate seat representing parts of Tulsa. Complete but unofficial election results show that Ikley-Freeman, who is a therapist at a nonprofit mental health agency, won by 31 votes.
That seat was vacated after Republican Sen. Dan Newberry said he would step down early to focus on his career in banking.
Ikley-Freeman’s win marks the fourth pickup for state Democrats in special elections this year in Oklahoma, where Republicans have dominated state politics in recent years. The GOP still has a 39-8 advantage over Democrats in the Senate, a 72-28 edge in the House and controls every statewide and congressional office.
The 26-year-old said Oklahoma’s continuing state budget problems were a big concern of voters she spoke with during the campaign.
“Everyone I was engaging with depends in some way or another on basic needs that are provided through the state budget,†Ikley-Freeman said. “People started to feel scared.â€
Republicans held on to two other legislative seats in Tuesday’s election. The Legislature’s controlling party has failed during an ongoing special legislative session to push through tax increase plans that would bring new revenue to state coffers. Lawmakers now are considering bills that would balance the budget by raiding savings accounts and imposing cuts of about 2.5 percent to most state agencies.
The special elections in Oklahoma also followed last week’s sweeping Democratic victories in Virginia, in which the party comfortably won the governor’s race and fielded challengers who unseated several Republican incumbents in state House races. The Democrats’ success in Virginia has them hoping for even bigger wins in next year’s nationwide midterm elections.
Michael Whelan is a Democratic consultant who helped manage Ikley-Freeman’s campaign and the races of Democratic Reps. Karen Gaddis in Tulsa and Jacob Rosecrants in Norman, who both won Republican-held seats in special elections this year.
He attributes the Democrats’ success to a combination of factors that includes the state’s budget woes, voter dissatisfaction with President Trump and a series of scandals that have led to the resignation of four GOP incumbents this year.
“The formula has been very similar for each of these races,†Whelan said “There are a lot of Republicans out there with buyer’s remorse with President Trump, which naturally suppresses turnout.
“Then you’ve got scandal after scandal happening locally, and I think Republicans are losing faith in their brand a little bit.â€