It is estimated by political experts that there are 78 “Swing” districts in the House of Representatives, which could go either way in November.
History tells us that with the exception of 1934, and 2002, the party NOT in the White House always gains seats, and often a large number of seats, and takes over the majority in Congress, as in 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010.
Since the Democrats only need 23 seats to switch control of the lower house of Congress, it is hard to imagine that this will not occur.
There are plenty of seats that could change due to the Trump policies and programs, particularly in states such as New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and California, with selected seats in other states many of them “Red” for Trump.
More likely than just 23 seats is the possibility of a massive switch of seats, possibly as many as 40 or more seats going to the Democrats.
If such happens, which polls seem to show likely to occur, we will have the ability of the House of Representatives to fully investigate many scandals and controversies that have been pushed aside by the Republican majority.
And impeachment of Donald Trump would be likely in 2019, just as Robert Mueller comes to conclusions on his investigation of Trump for Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, abuse of the Emoluments Clause, and so much else.
Conviction would be difficult, nearly impossible, of Trump on impeachment charges, but his erratic behavior could lead to pressure for him to resign, and since Mike Pence wants to be President, do not be so sure he would not turn against his boss at some point, as hard as that is to imagine right now in late July 2018.
Last month, in a response to Ronald’s blog entry “Donald Trump Reversal A Ploy As Republicans Run Scared For November Elections†( https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34033 ), I noted that—counting midterm elections which flipped the U.S. House to the White House opposition party (1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010), the average number of seats gained for each percentage point nationally shifted was +3.59. So, think in increments of +3 and +4 with each nationally shifted percentage point.
Real Clear Politics’s latest [July 6 to 24] has Democrats favored for Congressional Generic Ballot at +7.2. Since Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, in 2016, by +1.08, that would be a 2016-to-2018 national shift of +8.28. That would be good for a Democratic pickup of the U.S. House with an estimate of +29 flipped seats.
I think the Democrats will flip the U.S. House. But, I think they’re going to win the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, with a margin between +9 and +12. That would yield between +33 and +46 pickups.
Rather than reaching a bare minimum with the needed U.S. Popular Vote, and with the seat gains, the Democrats will have more comfort—ending up with at least +10 in excess of the required U.S. House majority of 218 seats.
Ronald writes,
“History tells us that with the exception of 1934, and 2002, the party NOT in the White House always gains seats, and often a large number of seats, and takes over the majority in Congress, as in 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010.â€
There is also another history to those specific midterm election years: With the exception of 2010, while the U.S. House flipped majority control to the White House opposition party…so, too, came the U.S. Senate.
Last December, after the special election in Alabama flipped Democratic [“Magnificent Victory For Doug Jones In Alabama: Its Meaning,†https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=32536 ], I posted the following: “This special U.S. Senate election in Alabama, from 12.12.2017, has given Democrats 49 seats headed into 2018.
The three most recent midterm election cycles, which were national wave elections (against the party of the incumbent U.S. president), and which flipped the U.S. Senate, came in 1994 (Republican), 2006 (Democratic), and 2014 (Republican). The 1994 and 2014 Republicans and 2006 Democrats, heading into those midterm cycles as the minority party, did not lose a single seat. Those waves came to them.â€
I still think that wave is coming.
One way to look it as if with incumbents who win re-election while their minority party flips a new majority—and that they increase their previous election cycle’s margin.
In 2006, a Democratic pickup of both houses of Congress, 10 of 13 incumbent Democrats increased their 2000-to-2006 margins: California’s Dianne Feinstein; Delaware’s Tom Carper; Florida’s Bill Nelson; Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow; Nebraska’s Ben Nelson; New Mexico’s Jeff Bingaman; New York’s Hillary Clinton; North Dakota’s Kent Conrad; Washington’s Maria Cantwell; and Wisconsin’s Herb Kohl.
In 2014, a Republican pickup of the U.S. Senate, 7 of 9 incumbent Republicans increased their 2008-to-2014 margins: Idaho’s Jim Risch; Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell; Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe; South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham; Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander; Texas’s John Cornyn; and Wyoming’s Mike Enzi.
One way you can tell a national wave is happening, for the 2018 U.S. Senate Democrats, will be the re-nominated incumbents who win re-election in the general with stronger 2012-to-2018 margins. The primaries are still going. But, I suspect, should the Democrats flip the U.S. Senate (along with the U.S. House), increases will happen with at least 80 percent of the applicable incumbents. I especially perceive it being the case with the likes of Connecticut’s Chris Murphy (a 2012 margin of +11.75); Massachusetts’s Elizabeth Warren (+7.55, pickup); Ohio’s Sherrod Brown (+6.00); Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey (+9.10); Virginia’s Tim Kaine (+5.91); and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin (+5.55). But, for an incumbent like North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, who won in 2012 by just +0.90, to win re-election she would pretty much have to shift up. Should she win re-election, I would anticipate Heitkamp will gain.
I am, here on July 26, 2018, predicting the U.S. Senate will also flip Democratic. The current Democratic-held seats, with 49 in their caucus, will get retained. Their pickups will be: Nevada; Arizona (tipping point); and Tennessee. Any additional pickups will look next to Texas.
Thanks again, D, for your perceptive commentary, which all of us on this blog greatly appreciate.
I certainly hope what you project, based on historical trends and statistics, turns out to be so, as I consider this midterm election the most important in many decades, if not a lifetime, and this is not hyperbole.
Thanks again!
2 new polls give Democrats a double-digit lead in the 2018 generic ballot.
https://www.vox.com/2018/7/25/17613518/2018-midterm-elections-polls-generic-ballot-democrats-kff
Putin’s 2018 election interference has begun. Russian hackers are targeting Claire McCaskill.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-hackers-new-target-a-vulnerable-democratic-senator
Speaking of Russiagate, Cohen says Trump knew in advance of 2016 Trump Tower meeting.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/26/politics/michael-cohen-donald-trump-june-2016-meeting-knowledge/index.html
They think Trump’s side leaked it to discredit Cohen.
Cohen could be attempting to scare Trump into granting him a pardon.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/07/27/what-is-michael-cohen-up-to-with-his-leaks-to-the-press/#.W1s14bXMaIU.facebook