A number of new public opinion polls demonstrate that support for Donald Trump has collapsed into the mid to low 30s, an all time low during his Presidency.
More people in polls want Special Counsel Robert Mueller to pursue the scandals around Donald Trump, and 60 percent do not think Donald Trump is honest.
Every indication is that there will be a massive and walloping repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republican Party, which has been willing to ignore, or often collaborate on preventing a full investigation, but the Justice Department under Jeff Sessions, as despicable as he is in so many ways, has refused to do anything regarding interference in the investigation.
So Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Robert Mueller, and FBI head Christopher Wray are moving ahead, and ignoring tweets by the President, and attacks by his congressional supporters.
A massive number of women, people of color, young people, and teachers are running for state and national office, particularly in the Democratic Party.
A “Blue Wave” seems clearly coming, with suburban educated women, people of color, young people, and college graduates ready to punish Trump and his party, and the Midwest, the heartland of the nation, seems to be turning against Donald Trump too.
But there could always be Russian collusion which distorts the results, and certainly, the Republican Party and Donald Trump have no interest in attempting to prevent such action, which shows how corrupt they are, wanting to hold on to power no matter what, to benefit the elite wealthy at the expense of the middle and working classes and the poor.
I have a long response ahead. (Please bear with it.)
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Nate Silver’s “Five Thirty Eight†has the odds, at 5-in-6 (83 percent), that the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections will flip majority to the Democratic Party.
Link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe
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I wrote plenty about the U.S. Senate, in a response to Ronald’s “Possible Democratic Gains in US Senate in Midterm Elections of 2018,†from August 2, 2018. So, at this time, I won’t write more about that.
Link: https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34414
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I have previously noted that, with the midterm elections of 1994, and since 1995, the party which had the majority with the U.S. House of Representatives also had the majority count of the nation’s governorships. They aligned.
“Real Clear Politics†now has zero of the current Democratic-held governorships in its tossup column. The independent-held Alaska is in the tossup column and poised for a Republican pickup. Seven Republican-held governorships are now in tossup. But, a few days ago, an eighth, Arizona, was also in tossup.
Fox News has a poll saying Arizona’s Republican governor, Doug Ducey, leads Democratic challenger David Garcia by +11. I don’t buy it. Ducey won re-election, in 2014, by +11.80. With the 2nd district and the U.S. Senate shifting sharply in the direction of the Democrats, it’s highly unlikely re-election for Ducey would produce a margin that close to his 2014 result. “Real Clear Politics†takes an aggregation of polls—which means ones convincing and unconvincing—and puts together averages over cited periods of time. A strong, national Democratic wave is not going to avoid Arizona.
Recently polls for Iowa have Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell polled ahead, like +5, of Republican incumbent and interim governor Kim Reynolds. (2014 Iowa gubernatorial was won, with re-election by Republican Terry Brandstandt by +21.72 percentage points.)
The Democrats, after their November 2017 pickup of New Jersey, have 16 governorships heading into the November 2018. Here is my estimate of likely order of pickups should the party flip for a new majority count.
17. Illinois
18. New Mexico
19. Maine
20. Michigan
Those are are strongly favored already.
21. Nevada
22. Florida
23. Wisconsin
24. Ohio
25. Iowa
26. Georgia — Tipping Point State
27. Arizona
28. Kansas
“Real Clear Politics’ would argue for switching the last two. But, if the Democrats are leading on the U.S. House by +10 to +14, and they lost in the 2016 U.S. Popular Vote by –1.08 percentage points, they’re in a better position than pollsters are apparently recognizing.
A fun little exercise: With the gubernatorial majority pickups for the 1994 Republicans, the 2006 Democrats, and the 2010 Republicans, how many of the Top 10 populous states were in the applicable new majority’s column? (There are 36 states on the schedule. Right now, the only state not on the 2018 schedule is North Carolina, a 2016 Democratic pickup.) Here, with states listed in order of population rank according to their allocated electoral votes from the presidential election two years earlier, are the following (* pickup state).
1994 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN PICKUP
California
* New York
* Texas
* Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Michigan
[* New Jersey — 1993 Republican pickup]
2006 GOVERNOR — DEMOCRATIC PICKUP
* New York
Illinois
Pennsylvania
* Ohio
Michigan
[New Jersey]
2010 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN PICKUP
Texas
Florida
* Pennsylvania
* Ohio
* Michigan
[* New Jersey — 2009 Republican Pickup]
Georgia
The 2018 Democrats have four of the Top 10 populous states in their column: California, New York, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
Since the average number from the 1994, 2006, and 2010 were seven, the likelihood of winning 2018 pickups from Illinois, Michigan, and Florida would get the Democrats to 22. To win over a new majority count of the nation’s governorships, the Democrats will also need to flip Ohio and Georgia. They would end up with nine of the Top 10. How likely is that to happen? It’s difficult. But, with exception of North Carolina (not on the schedule), the 2018 shift in all the rest of the Top 10 states are going in the direction of the Democrats. You go over them, one by one, and the 24 from the column of the current 2018 Republicans—versus the 12 from the column of the current 2018 Democrats—and it’s very possible to a see a new majority count flip to the Democrats.
I previously stated that the Democrats, working with the –4.09 percentage points from which the lost the 2014 U.S. Popular Vote (it was Republicans 50.33% vs. Democrats 46.24%), need to win by +4. That would be a 8-point national shift. If the 2018 Democrats shift the House nationally by +10, to win by +9, I think they will definitely win over a new majority count of governorships.
Another way of looking at it: After Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election with a map including Republican pickups of four of the Top 10 populous states—Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan—it would not be surprising if, as Pennsylvania already did in 2014, all flip to the 2018 Democratic column. And, of course, there are also the other two states—Wisconsin and Iowa. (Regarding Trump’s last pickup, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Republican incumbent congressman Bruce Poliquin is in a tossup race.)
The state I think is the best bellwether for determining the overall outcomes of Election 2018 majorities—U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors—will be Florida. (That is: At least one pickup of a Republican-held U.S. House seat; retaining the U.S. Senate seat of Bill Nelson; and winning a Democratic gubernatorial pickup for Andrew Gillum.) But, with the 2018 Democrats needing to flip new majorities to win over all three, the best bellwether state—if they do prevail on all counts—will likely be Arizona. (That is: Democratic pickups of Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, currently repped by senatorial nominee Martha McSally; the U.S. Senate; and the governorship.)
Correction and clarification with the following:
“You go over them, one by one, and the 24 from the column of the current 2018 Republicans—versus the 12 from the column of the current 2018 Democrats—and it’s very possible to a see a new majority count flip to the Democrats.â€
In this 2018 midterm elections, for gubernatorial races, the Republicans have 24 from their 2014 column. But, they also have 2 more from 2016, because New Hampshire and Vermont are on the schedule not every four but every two years.
Alaska is in the independent column, from 2014.
That leaves not 12 but 9 which are in the column for the Democrats heading into these 2018 midterm elections.
For the rest of the 14 governorships, which are not on the schedule here in 2018, 7 each are in the columns of the Republican and Democratic parties.
The totals, heading into the midterm elections of 2018, are: 33 Republican; 16 Democratic; 1 independent.
The 2018 Democrats, to win over a new majority count of the nation’s governorships, need a net gain of +10.
Bad news for Trumpty Dumbty. Manafort has flipped.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/14/politics/paul-manafort-guilty-plea/index.html