Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, And New Mexico: The Five Most Predictable States In Presidential Elections In American History

10 comments on “Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, And New Mexico: The Five Most Predictable States In Presidential Elections In American History”

1. 

   D September 15, 2018 4:32 pm

   In response to Ronald’s thread, “The Cycle Theory of American History Again in Play” (December 12, 2016, https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=29045 ), I updated the list of states for their historical reliability for having carried for presidential winners.

   The U.S. Popular Vote has been recorded since 1824, and has been applicable in 49 elections from which it and the Electoral College/presidential winner aligned 44 times. So, the five split outcomes were in 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. In those particular elections, I gave the popular-vote carried states half-credit. (They should not be fully penalized.) And I gave those with carried for the presidential winner full credit. In elections in which a presidential winner carried both, the states that carried received full credit while those that did received zero credit. And, from that point, I figured out their percentages and ranked them accordingly. (Note: Those states in tied positions are listed in order of when they entered the Union.)

   Here is the list:

   * * * RANKING THE STATES WHICH HAVE CARRIED FOR THE U.S. PRESIDENTS | 1789–2016 * * *
   01 | New Mexico | 25 of 27 cycles | 92.59%
   02 | Illinois | 42 of 50 cycles | 84.00%
   03 | New York | 47.5 of 57 cycles | 83.33%
   — | Ohio | 45 of 54 cycles | 83.33%
   — | California | 35 of 42 cycles | 83.33%
   06 | Pennsylvania | 48 of 58 cycles | 82.75%
   07 | Nevada | 31.5 of 39 cycles | 80.76%
   08 | Wisconsin | 33.5 of 43 cycles | 77.90%
   09 | Arizona | 21 of 27 cycles | 77.77%
   10 | West Virginia | 30 of 39 cycles | 76.92%
   11 | Indiana | 39 of 51 cycles | 76.47%
   12 | Missouri | 38 of 50 cycles | 76.00%
   13 | Iowa | 32.5 of 43 cycles | 75.58%
   14 | New Hampshire | 43.5 of 58 cycles | 75.00%
   — | Michigan | 34.5 of 46 cycles | 75.00%
   — | Florida | 31.5 of 42 cycles | 75.00%
   — | Minnesota | 30 of 40 cycles | 75.00%
   — | Oregon | 30 of 40 cycles | 75.00%
   — | Montana | 24 of 32 cycles | 75.00%
   20 | Utah | 23 of 31 cycles | 74.19%
   21 | New Jersey | 42.5 of 58 cycles | 73.27%
   22 | Rhode Island | 41 of 57 cycles | 71.92%
   23 | North Dakota | 23 of 32 cycles | 71.87%
   — | Washington | 23 of 32 cycles | 71.87%
   — | Idaho | 23 of 32 cycles | 71.87%
   26 | Tennessee | 39.5 of 55 cycles | 71.81%
   27 | Oklahoma | 20 of 28 cycles | 71.42%
   28 | Colorado | 25.5 of 36 cycles | 70.83%
   29 | Connecticut | 41 of 58 cycles | 70.68%
   30 | North Carolina | 39.5 of 56 cycles | 70.53%
   • AVERAGE: U.S. President (1789–2016: 58 election cycles)…
   1,539 carried states (from 2,220 voting states) | 69.32% •
   31 | Kansas | 27 of 39 cycles | 69.23%
   32 | Maryland | 40 of 58 cycles | 68.96%
   33 | Virginia | 38.5 of 56 cycles | 68.75%
   — | Wyoming | 22 of 32 cycles | 68.75%
   35 | Maine | 34 of 50 cycles | 68.00%
   36 | Massachusetts | 39 of 58 cycles | 67.24%
   37 | Hawaii | 10 of 15 cycles | 66.66%
   38 | Nebraska | 25 of 38 cycles | 65.78%
   39 | Delaware | 38 of 58 cycles | 65.51%
   40 | Louisiana | 32.5 of 50 cycles | 65.00%
   41 | Vermont | 37 of 57 cycles | 64.91%
   — | Kentucky | 37 of 57 cycles | 64.91%
   43 | Arkansas | 27 of 44 cycles | 61.36%
   44 | Texas | 25 of 41 cycles | 60.97%
   45 | Alaska | 09 of 15 cycles | 60.00%
   46 | Georgia | 34 of 57 cycles | 59.64%
   — | South Carolina | 34 of 57 cycles | 59.64%
   48 | South Dakota | 19 of 32 cycles | 59.37%
   49 | Mississippi | 26.5 of 48 cycles | 55.20%
   50 | Alabama | 26.5 of 49 cycles | 54.08%

   * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

   * * * THE PERCENTAGES OF STATES WHICH HAVE CARRIED FOR THE U.S. PRESIDENTS | 1789–2016 * * *

   The following are all presidential election winners and their carried states and percentages of carried states.…

   01 | 1789 | George Washington | 10 of 10 | 100.00%
   02 | 1792 | George Washington | 10 of 10 | 100.00%
   03 | 1796 | John Adams (F) | 09 of 16 | 56.25%
   04 | 1800 | Thomas Jefferson (D–R) | 09 of 16 | 56.25%
   05 | 1804 | Thomas Jefferson (D–R) | 15 of 17 | 88.23%
   06 | 1808 | James Madison (D–R) | 12 of 17 | 70.58%
   07 | 1812 | James Madison (D–R) | 11 of 18 | 61.11%
   08 | 1816 | James Monroe (D–R) | 16 of 19 | 84.21%
   09 | 1820 | James Monroe (D–R) | 24 of 24 | 100.00%
   10 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams (D–R) | 07 of 24 | 29.16%
   11 | 1828 | Andrew Jackson (D) | 15 of 24 | 62.50%
   12 | 1832 | Andrew Jackson (D) | 16 of 24 | 66.66%
   13 | 1836 | Martin Van Buren (D) | 15 of 26 | 57.69%
   14 | 1840 | William Henry Harrison (W) | 19 of 26 | 73.07%
   15 | 1844 | James Polk (D) | 15 of 26 | 57.69%
   16 | 1848 | Zachary Taylor (W) | 15 of 30 | 50.00%
   17 | 1852 | Franklin Pierce (D) | 27 of 31 | 87.09%
   18 | 1856 | James Buchanan (D) | 19 of 31 | 61.29%
   19 | 1860 | Abraham Lincoln (R) | 17 of 32 | 53.12%
   20 | 1864 | Abraham Lincoln (R) | 22 of 25 | 88.00%
   21 | 1868 | Ulysses Grant (R) | 26 of 34 | 76.47%
   22 | 1872 | Ulysses Grant (R) | 31 of 37 | 83.78%
   23 | 1876 | Rutherford Hayes (R) | 21 of 38 | 55.26%
   24 | 1880 | James Garfield (R) | 19 of 38 | 50.00%
   25 | 1884 | Grover Cleveland (D) | 20 of 38 | 52.63%
   26 | 1888 | Benjamin Harrison (R) | 20 of 38 | 52.63%
   27 | 1892 | Grover Cleveland (D) | 24 of 44 | 54.54%
   28 | 1896 | William McKinley (R) | 23 of 45 | 51.11%
   29 | 1900 | William McKinley (R) | 28 of 45 | 62.22%
   30 | 1904 | Teddy Roosevelt (R) | 32 of 45 | 71.11%
   31 | 1908 | William Howard Taft (R) | 29 of 46 | 63.04%
   32 | 1912 | Woodrow Wilson (D) | 40 of 48 | 83.33%
   33 | 1916 | Woodrow Wilson (D) | 30 of 48 | 62.50%
   34 | 1920 | Warren Harding (R) | 37 of 48 | 77.08%
   35 | 1924 | Calvin Coolidge (R) | 35 of 48 | 72.91%
   36 | 1928 | Herbert Hoover (R) | 40 of 48 | 83.33%
   37 | 1932 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 42 of 48 | 87.50%
   38 | 1936 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 46 of 48 | 95.83%
   39 | 1940 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 38 of 48 | 79.16%
   40 | 1944 | Franklin Roosevelt (D) | 36 of 48 | 75.00%
   41 | 1948 | Harry Truman (D) | 28 of 48 | 58.33%
   42 | 1952 | Dwight Eisenhower (R) | 39 of 48 | 81.25%
   43 | 1956 | Dwight Eisenhower (R) | 41 of 48 | 85.41%
   44 | 1960 | John Kennedy (D) | 22 of 50 | 44.00%
   45 | 1964 | Lyndon Johnson (D) | 44 of 50 | 88.00%
   46 | 1968 | Richard Nixon (R) | 32 of 50 | 64.00%
   47 | 1972 | Richard Nixon (R) | 49 of 50 | 98.00%
   48 | 1976 | Jimmy Carter (D) | 23 of 50 | 46.00%
   49 | 1980 | Ronald Reagan (R) | 44 of 50 | 88.00%
   50 | 1984 | Ronald Reagan (R) | 49 of 50 | 98.00%
   51 | 1988 | George Bush (R) | 40 of 50 | 80.00%
   52 | 1992 | Bill Clinton (D) | 32 of 50 | 64.00%
   53 | 1996 | Bill Clinton (D) | 31 of 50 | 62.00%
   54 | 2000 | George W. Bush (R) | 30 of 50 | 60.00%
   55 | 2004 | George W. Bush (R) | 31 of 50 | 62.00%
   56 | 2008 | Barack Obama (D) | 28 of 50 | 56.00%
   57 | 2012 | Barack Obama (D) | 26 of 50 | 52.00%
   58 | 2016 | Donald Trump (R) | 30 of 50 | 60.00%

   Cumulative Totals:
   • 1,539 cumulative carried states, from 2,220 cumulative participating states, is 69.32% of cumulative carried states.

   Average Number of Carried States:
   • This is a historical average, for current times, of 34.66 [34] individual states.

2. 

   D September 15, 2018 5:00 pm

   To add even more insight, in a response to Ronald’s “California Has Larger Economy Now Than the United Kingdom (Great Britain), Fifth Largest in the World” (June 1, 2018, https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=33901 ), I wrote more responses. One was on the state of California and what a bellwether-to-the-nation was Los Angeles County (1920–1984). One can use that link to read it again.

   Related directly to this blog entry, and for another way of looking at more recent times (since, I have it correct, everyone who comes here was already born in 1980), I listed the states’ record for the last ten presidential elections of 1980 to 2016. Four decades’ worth of elections. And it is interesting, going over the list, to see which states aligned with one other.

   There are some small differences in some cases. Ronald’s home state, Florida, carried differently from Ohio, the only state with the perfect record, in all but 1992. Wisconsin, a 1988 Democratic pickup for Michael Dukakis, jumped one election cycle ahead of companion states Pennsylvania and Michigan, which waited for the Democratic pickup year of 1992. Colorado and Virginia, which have voted the same since 1948, carried differently only in 1992. (I will spare details of those elections. But, quickly—they were about their margins.)

   I went ahead and ranked these all specifically with this period. (We should keep this in mind: Minnesota, which has historically been carried 75 percent, sided with all but one winner in the ten prior elections of 1940–1976—getting it “wrong” only in 1968. But, from 1980–2016, Minnesota did not once carry Republican—and that explains its low score during that specific time period.)

   Here they are:

   • TAKE TEN: ELECTIONS 1980 TO 2016 •

   100% — Grade: A+
   • Ohio: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016
   * * *
   95% — Grade: A
   • Nevada: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012; [2016]
   * * *
   90% — Grade: A
   • Florida: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016
   • New Mexico: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012; [2000, 2016]
   * * *
   85% — Grade: B+
   • New Hampshire: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012; [2016]
   • Pennsylvania and Michigan (with Maine #02): 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, 2016; [2000]
   • Colorado: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012; [2016]
   • Iowa: 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016; [2000]
   * * *
   80% — Grade: B
   • Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Missouri, and Arkansas: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2016
   • Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, Illinois, Maine [statewide; #01], and California: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012; [2000, 2016]
   * * *
   75% — Grade: C+
   • Virginia: 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012; [2016]
   • Wisconsin: 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, 2016; [2000]
   * * *
   70% — Grade: C
   • Montana: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2016
   • Arizona: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2016
   • North Carolina and Indiana (with Nebraska #02): 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016
   • New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington: 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012; [2000, 2016]
   • Maryland: 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012; [2000, 2016]
   * * *
   65% — Grade: D+
   [Not applicable]
   * * *
   60% — Grade: D
   • South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska [statewide; #01; #03], North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alaska: 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2016
   • Georgia: 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2016
   • West Virginia: 1984, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2016
   • Rhode Island and Hawaii: 1984, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012; [2000, 2016]
   * * *
   Less Than 60% — Grade: F
   • Minnesota (and District of Columbia): 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012; [2000, 2016]

3. 

   D September 15, 2018 5:14 pm

   Another perspective is this: States which have been on a pattern of carrying for presidential elections winners, without any interruption, and having established a streak. Right now, Ohio is the only state which has voted with the winner at least 10 consecutive elections. This can have one wondering: How long can a state keep it up? The historical winners, in this category, are Nevada and New Mexico. They carried 16 consecutive cycles, from New Mexico’s first participation, in 1912 and until 1972. That was a period of 60 years. Ohio, right now, has been at it since 1964 and to the most recent that was 2016. That is a period of 52 years and 14 consecutive cycles. So, naturally, I wonder about Ohio. It gave 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump a margin of +8.07, when the U.S. Popular Vote was with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by +2.09. But, Trump’s six pickup states averaged +3.39 percentage points. (Yes, this can be a little tricky.)

   • STATES WITH THE LONGEST UNBROKEN STREAKS •

   — 16 —
   • Nevada (1912–1972)
   • New Mexico (1912–1972)

   — 14 —
   • Pennsylvania (1828–1880)
   • Montana (1904–1956)
   • Idaho (1904–1956)
   • Illinois (1920–1972)
   • Ohio (1964–2016—current!)

   — 13 —
   • Missouri (1904–1952)

   — 12 —
   • Arizona (1912–1956)
   • Minnesota (1920–1964)
   • Delaware (1952–1996)

   — 11 —
   • North Dakota (1896–1936)
   • Wyoming (1900–1940)
   • California (1916–1956)
   • Washington (1916–1956)
   • Utah (1916–1956)
   • Kentucky (1964–2004)
   • Tennessee (1964–2004)

   — 10 —
   • Kansas (1900–1936)
   • Texas (1928–1964)

   — 09 —
   • New York (1880–1912)
   • Indiana (1880–1912)
   • New Hampshire (1896–1928)
   • Maryland (1912–1944)
   • Massachusetts (1932–1964)
   • Rhode Island (1932–1964)
   • Louisiana (1972–2004)
   • Arkansas (1972–2004)

   — 08 —
   • West Virginia (1920–1948)
   • Virginia (1928–1956)
   • Florida (1928–1956)
   • Oklahoma (1928–1956)
   • North Carolina (1960–1988)

   — 07 —
   • Wisconsin (1888–1912)
   • Nebraska (1912–1936)
   • Colorado (1912–1936)
   • New Jersey (1920–1944)
   • Oregon (1920–1944)

   — 06 —
   • Georgia (1800–1820)
   • South Carolina (1800–1820; 1968–1988)
   • Vermont (1804–1824; 1860–1880)
   • Maine (1860–1880)
   • Michigan (1860–1880)
   • Iowa (1860–1880)
   • Connecticut (1892–1912)

   — 05 —
   • Mississippi (1828–1844; 1972–1988)
   • South Dakota (1920–1936)
   • Alabama (1972–1988)

   — 03 —
   • Alaska (1964–1972; 1980–1988)

   — 02 —
   • Hawaii (1960–1964; 1972–1976; 1992–1996; 2008–2012)
   [• District of Columbia (1992–1996; 2008–2012)]

4. 

   Ronald September 15, 2018 10:58 pm

   WOW, D, you have overwhelmed me and my other followers on this blog with the precise details you have provided!

   I cannot thank you enough for this, with only one correction, that clearly no one might know if I did not provide it.

   That is, I was born and a resident of New York City and Long Island until my move to South Florida in 1989, now 29 years ago.

   But everywhere I travel on vacation, and when I say I am from South Florida, I get skeptical looks as they realize I have a New York accent, haha lol.

   If you listen to any of my radio interviews on this blog on the right, or watch the lectures on here about Presidents, or watch my C Span interview and lecture, you would realize how New York I still am, haha lol! 🙂

5. 

   D September 16, 2018 5:48 am

   Ronald,

   I have this, and possibly another response to add, to this blog entry topic. The point of my doing so is that this information will be available here for the archives.

   * * * * * * * * * *

   I sensed, from having read this blog entry topic, part of this also relates to the next U.S. presidential election in 2020.

   Looking at the results from 2016, in which Donald Trump won a Republican pickup vs. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and after two terms of then-incumbent Democratic president Barack Obama, the margins were important for noting where the pickups came in; what was the tipping point state; and where states ranked. Not just that—particular states that rank among the strongest from the Republican and, likewise, Democratic columns.

   Some things changed. The tipping point state of both Barack Obama’s elections was Colorado. It was his No. 23 best state (of a carried 28 from 2008 and a carried 26 from 2012). In both elections, Virginia was Obama’s No. 24. In 2016, a Republican pickup year leaving Hillary Clinton to hold 20 states, Virginia became her No. 15 and Colorado her No. 16 best-performed states in their margins. (This is where my home state, Michigan, used to perform for Democrats.) This also meant that they were Donald Trump’s No. 35 (Colorado) and No. 36 (Virginia) best states. This keeps in mind two things: 1) Trump carried 30 states; 2) Since 1992, no presidential winner has won more than 32 states. This suggests the two, which used to be reliably red, then transitioned to purple, have become blue states.

   In anticipation of the United States presidential election of 2020, you can look to the below lists, with their margins ranked in descending order. I tracked their cumulative electoral votes along the way. You can see Wisconsin was Donald Trump’s tipping point state. (After faithless electors, from Texas, this applied to Pennsylvania.) This means, for what will become the national shift for 2016-to-2020, it is just about 100 percent likely Wisconsin, and the states near to it—Pennsylvania and Michigan (and, yes, I will add Florida)—will be in the column of the winner in 2020. Not just that—they will be the most critical states. A Democratic pickup win not happen without flipping these states. A Republican hold—Trump getting re-elected (or, if you prefer, a same-party replacement)—will not happen without retaining these states.

   * * * * * * * * * *

   Here were the 30 states, plus the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, carried in 2016 by Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump (* was a pickup):

   — Nebraska #03 +54.19 (cum. 1)
   01. Wyoming +46.30 (cum. 4)
   02. West Virginia +41.68 (cum. 9)
   03. Oklahoma +36.39 (cum. 16)
   04. North Dakota +35.73 (cum. 19)
   05. Idaho +31.76 (cum. 23)
   06. Kentucky +29.84 (cum. 31)
   07. South Dakota +29.79 (cum. 34)
   08. Alabama +27.73 (cum. 43)
   09. Arkansas +26.92 (cum. 49)
   10. Tennessee +26.01 (cum. 60)
   11. Nebraska [statewide] +25.05 (cum. 62)
   — Nebraska #01 +20.72 (cum. 63)
   12. Kansas +20.42 (cum. 69)
   13. Montana +20.23 (cum. 72)
   14. Louisiana +19.64 (cum. 80)
   15. Indiana +19.01 (cum. 91)
   16. Missouri +18.51 (cum. 101)
   17. Utah +17.89 (cum. 107)
   18. Mississippi +17.80 (cum. 113)
   19. Alaska +14.73 (cum. 116)
   20. South Carolina +14.27 (cum. 125)
   — * Maine #02 +10.28 (cum. 126)
   21. * Iowa +9.41 (cum. 132)
   22. Texas +8.98 (cum. 170)
   23. * Ohio +8.07 (cum. 188)
   24. Georgia +5.10 (cum. 204)
   25. North Carolina +3.66 (cum. 219)
   26. Arizona +3.50 (cum. 230)

   [Average Margin from Pickup States: +3.39]

   — Nebraska #02 +2.23 (cum. 231)
   27. * Florida +1.19 (cum. 260)
   28. * Wisconsin +0.76 (cum. 270)—Tipping Point State
   29. * Pennsylvania +0.72 (cum. 290)
   30. * Michigan +0.22 (cum. 306)

   * * * * * * * * * * *

   Here were the percentage-points margins from the 20 states, plus District of Columbia, which were Democratic holds for 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton (and listed in ranked descending order):

   — District of Columbia +86.78 (cum. 3)
   1. Hawaii +32.18 (cum. 7)
   2. California +29.99 (cum. 62)
   3. Massachusetts +27.20 (cum. 73)
   4. Maryland +26.42 (cum. 83)
   5. Vermont +26.41 (cum. 86)
   6. New York +22.49 (cum. 115)
   7. Illinois +16.89 (cum. 135)
   8. Washington +15.71 (cum. 147)
   9. Rhode Island +15.51 (cum. 151)
   — Maine #01 +14.81 (cum. 152)
   10. New Jersey +13.98 (cum. 166)
   11. Connecticut +13.64 (cum. 173)
   12. Delaware +11.37 (cum. 176)
   13. Oregon +10.98 (cum. 183)
   14. New Mexico +8.21 (cum. 188)
   15. Virginia +5.32 (cum. 201)
   16. Colorado +4.91 (cum. 210)
   17. Maine [statewide] +2.96 (cum. 212)
   18. Nevada +2.42 (cum. 218)

   [Margin from U.S. Popular Vote: +2.09]

   19. Minnesota +1.51 (cum. 228)
   20. New Hampshire +0.37 (cum. 232)

6. 

   Ronald September 16, 2018 7:52 am

   Thanks again so much, D, for your providing such detail historically, and for the future, and I agree that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida will be the crucial states in 2020.

   I would add Ohio, however, which as you know, has always been with the winner in the 20th and 21st century, except 1944 and 1960.

7. 

   Princess Leia September 17, 2018 11:55 am

   Why Brett Kavanaugh Might Lose Supreme Court Seat After Sexual Assault Allegation

   http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/09/brett-kavanaugh-might-lose-court-seat-after-sexual-assault-allegation-christine-ford.html

8. 

   Pragmatic Progressive September 17, 2018 4:50 pm

   Regarding the Kavanaugh scandal:

   Women Are Being Reminded of What Republicans Think of Them

   https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/09/17/women-are-being-reminded-of-what-republicans-think-of-them/#.W6AKvlQD8b8.facebook

9. 

   D September 18, 2018 12:07 am

   TEXAS—WITH A TWIST

   In Ronald’s blog entry topic, “Sunbelt States (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) Will Make Rust Belt Mid West (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) No Longer Factor In Future Presidential Elections By Mid 2020s and After” (November 15, 2017, https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=32307 ), those Sunbelt states cited are the ones on which the Democrats are on a trajectory to flip when the timing is right.

   Now, I know Ronald—and others—would want the next Republican-to-Democratic presidential pickup year to be 2020. But, if the next Democratic pickup year happens instead in 2024, that would make it more ripe for Texas, the toughest of those four, to flip and become a Democratic pickup for a likewise Democratic presidential pickup winner.

   I mentioned, in response to another of Ronald’s blog entry topics (which I would have to dig up), the following: Since 1968, every presidential election which switched party occupancy resulted in at least one pickup state which has not yet flipped back to the party which lost it. Here were those elections:

   • 1968 (Republican presidential pickup for Richard Nixon): Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska (statewide), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. (*Alaska was also a Republican pickup. But, it received an asterisk because, since its first vote in 1960, it has carried Democratic only once, in 1964.)

   • 1976 (Democratic presidential pickup for Jimmy Carter): Minnesota.

   • 1980 (Republican presidential pickup for Ronald Reagan): Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.

   • 1992 (Democratic presidential pickup for Bill Clinton): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine (statewide), Maryland, New Jersey, and Vermont.

   • 2000 (Republican presidential pickup for George W. Bush): Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia. (* Arizona was also a Republican pickup. But, since 1952, it has carried only once in the Democratic column, in 1996.)

   • 2008 (Democratic presidential pickup for Barack Obama): Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.

   Now, this doesn’t mean none of them will ever flip back. It means the party which lost them ended up having lost them for a considerable period of time. (Think of the in-between presidents who could not flip them.) I will not go into an analysis of them. But, since 2016 was another White House party switch, I must cite the following:

   • 2016 (Republican presidential pickup for Donald Trump): Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Trump also won a Republican pickup of the 2nd Congressional District of Maine.)

   Let’s suppose that 2020 ends up a Republican hold (re-election for Trump or a replacement). The same states, for reasons I explained above, would hold. Because no electoral map was ever later duplicated, I would anticipate and expect one of the lowest-ranked states, in margins, from the 2016 Democratic column to flip. So, if that were to manifest, I would predict that 2016 Democratic/2020 Republican state, however many, to flip back for a 2024 Democratic pickup winner. For envisioning what is next, that pretty much leaves the 2016 map intact just as a start.

   This addresses those cited states flippable in 2024: Texas, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, yes, but also add the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska. (The latter two were 2008 Democratic pickups for Barack Obama which did not hold with his re-election in 2012.) There may be more states, not typically perceived, and I won’t get into them right now.

   I want to focus on Texas. “Texas—With a Twist.”

   What do I mean?

   I went over the U.S. presidential elections of 1868 to 2016, meaning post-Civil War. I wanted to know, “How many elections has a presidential winner carried all of the Top 10 populous states [from that election]?” The reason for asking is this: Look where we are at right now! Since 1992, the percentage of states carried have been between 52 and 64 percent. Since the Democrats would love to flip Texas, they would also be winning over fellow Top-10s Georgia and North Carolina. So, that leads to looking at the current-and-likely-to-continue Top 10 states—California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan—and asking, “Would they all carry while only 52 to 64 percent of the nation’s states have been won?”

   The answer is no.

   There have been only four of those 1868 to 2016 elections in which all Top 10 states were carried: 1936 (second-term re-election for Franklin Roosevelt); 1964 (full-term election for Lyndon Johnson); 1980 and 1984 (two full-term elections for Ronald Reagan). Even the 49-state re-election of Richard Nixon, in 1972, saw one Top 10 holdout—Massachusetts.

   Looking at those states which flipped for party-pickup winners, 1968 and after, it looks like “Texas—With a Twist” is also “Texas—With a Trade-off.” That has me looking at Trump’s pickup states and imagining which ones, of Top 10 rank, may apply. Pair them off. Florida and Ohio have voted the same since 1948 (except for 1992). Since the Republican Party first won with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania and Michigan carried differently only in 1932, 1940, and 1976. (At this point, I think Florida is the only one which will definitely continue its long-term bellwether status. Trump won Ohio by such a large margin, raw votes and percentage points, to make Michigan possible. So, “Will Ohio still be more Republican than Michigan and Pennsylvania—or will the latter two trend more Republican than Ohio?”)

   The overall point is this: If the next Democratic presidential pickup winner flips Texas (and, with it, Georgia and North Carolina), in order to also carry Pennsylvania and Michigan (and, with them, Ohio)—meaning, he/she won all of the Top 10 populous states—he/she would have to carry at least 80 percent of the nation’s states.

   (Note: Since there have been at least two more blog entry topics by Ronald, I intend for this to be my last comment. This was a really good subject. I wanted to enhance it with the information I presented.)

10. 

    Ronald September 18, 2018 7:29 am

    WOW, D, you are again amazing in your research and analysis, and I cannot thank you enough! 🙂

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