With the midterm election only three weeks away, all kinds of scenarios are developing in the minds of political junkies, such as this author.
What if the House of Representatives ends up with a 218-217 majority held by the Republicans, meaning the Democrats only gain 22 seats in the lower chamber, rather than the 23 or more needed to control?
And what if miraculously, the Democrats gain one seat in the Senate, such as Arizona or Nevada, but lose two seats, such as North Dakota and Florida, and end up in a 50-50 tie, meaning Vice President Mike Pence organizes a Senate perfectly divided, and keeps the Senate Republican?
The question arises, have these scenarios ever occurred before in Congressional history, and the answer is YES in both houses of Congress, with twice in the House of Representatives.
In 1917-1919, the Republicans had a 215-214 margin, and third parties and Independents having 6 seats.
Also in 1931-1933, the Republicans had a 218-216 margin, and one third party seat.
In the Senate’s history, there have been eight such cases as follows:
In 1881-1883, there were 37 Republicans and 37 Democrats and two Independents.
In 1883-1885, there were 38 Republicans, 36 Democrats, and two Independents.
In 1893-1895, there were 44 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and four Independents.
In 1931-1933, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and one Independent.
In 1953-1955, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and one Independent.
In 1955-1957, there were 48 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and one Independent.
In 2001-2003, there were four switches of majority–From January 1-20, Democrat; from January 20 to June 6, Republican; from June 6, 2001 to November 12, 2002, Democratic; and then from November 12, 2002 to January 3, 2003 Republican. This was due to the switch of party and Vice President from Al Gore to Dick Cheney; the switch of Jim Jeffords of Vermont from Republican to Democratic; and the election of a new Senator from Missouri of the opposition party taking the oath of office before the new Senate of 2003 was organized.
Finally, in 2007-2009, there were 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and two Independents.
The 2018 Democrats need to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +6 in order to win a majority pickup of the U.S. House of Representatives.
This is based on an average of +3.59 net gains in seats for every percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of the minority party which is about to win over a new majority for the U.S. House of Representatives.
The 2016 result was: Republican 49.11% vs. Democratic 48.03%.
The 2018 Democrats need a net gain of +23 seats to win over a new majority. A national shift of +7, added to their 2016 results of –1.08, will deliver the U.S. House.
In this scenario, from Ronald, it would be the Democrats getting a shift not sufficient to flip the U.S. House. That the 2018 Democrats would win the U.S. Popular Vote by no greater than +5.25—based on a national, 2016-to-2018 Democratic shift of +6.33—and that would yield a net gain of +22 seats for the Democrats.
This is possible, yes, but it is unlikely.
Typically when there is the will, by the voters, to switch party control—be it the presidency or any other level—they will deliver sufficiently with the numbers.
My guess is that the 2018 Democrats will win the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, somewhere in the range of +7.50 to +10.00. That will yield a net gain of +30 to +39 (nearly +40) seats.
I just had a nightmare, D, lol, hahaha!
I tend to agree that the Democrats will gain about close to 40 seats in the House, but I fear that the Senate might end up 50-50, unless the Democrats can convince Lisa Murkowski to switch to Independent or Democratic, as she is being harassed by the Alaska Republican Party for her vote against Brett Kavanaugh!
The Russians are still at it.
Russian Oligarch Funded ‘Troll Farm’ To Interfere In 2018 Midterm Elections
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/midterms-russian-interference_us_5bca231be4b0d38b5877e5f3
In response to my comment, Ronald writes, “I tend to agree that the Democrats will gain about close to 40 seats in the House, but I fear that the Senate might end up 50-50, …â€
I am thinking that may become the result.
The 2018 Democrats head into the midterm election with 49 from their political party in the U.S. Senate. The 50/50 outcome would manifest with Democratic pickups of Arizona and Nevada but a Republican counter-pickup of North Dakota.
The governorships may also end up even—25/25. Right now, with the Democrats having 16 governorships, it looks good they will flip nine. I would rank their likelihood now in this order: 17) Illinois; 18) Michigan; 19) New Mexico; 20) Maine; 21) Florida; 22) Nevada; 23) Iowa; 24) Wisconsin; and 25) Ohio. (The 2018 Democrats, if they win over a new majority, could also flip Kansas and Georgia. See below assessment.)
Overall, I rate the three levels as follows:
• U.S. House — Democratic pickup for a new majority
• U.S. Senate — Tossup
• U.S. Governors — Tossup
Likely order for the 2018 Democrats for winning over new majorities (best-case senario):
• U.S. House — numbered in the 230s
• U.S. Governors — no higher than 27
• U.S. Senators — no higher than 51
As of this date, Saturday, October 20, 2018, there is a little over two weeks from Election Day. It is possible for numbers to more clearly soldify. I keep that in mind. (And I also keep in mind that, since 1995, the party which had the majority in the U.S. House also had the majority numbers of the nation’s governorships. So, for 24 consecutive years, they have aligned. Yes—that, too, is worth keeping in mind.)
Thanks, D, for your updated assessment, much appreciated by all of us on this blog!
This sounds rather encouraging.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/10/22/all-elements-of-the-democratic-coalition-are-fired-up/?fbclid=IwAR1UTpnICVkDmfDv7qkipK4-nueqkdvV22cszOepEu0xFq_NrYFNeqjv0kI#.W84UhauvwHE.facebook
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 — Alaska independent governor Bill Walker announced a few days ago that he was dropping out of the race.
Nate Silver’s “Five Thirty Eight†has Governor of Alaska as a Lean Republican pickup. But, it is looking like a race that will not be won by greater than +5.
“Five Thirty Eight†has it figured the Republicans are on pace to win “25.9†to the “24.1†governorships for the Democrats. (This, of course, can be changed over the next fourteen days.)
I am in disagreement.
All Democratic-held governorships are, as is typical with wave elections, in position to end up Democratic holds. So, going in order of margins, here is the likelihood, according to “Five Thirty Eight,†of the 2014 Republican-to-2018 Democratic pickups:
17) Illinois +13.0
18) Michigan +12.4
19) Maine +10.8
20) Iowa +8.4
21) New Mexico +7.8
22) Florida +5.0
23) Wisconsin +2.6
In these next states, the Democrats are supposedly trailing:
24) Georgia –0.5
— Nevada –0.5
26) Ohio –1.0
27) Kansas –2.0
I have seen some polls which lately contradict what others have reported. (For example, ones on Arizona U.S. Senate.) So, I don’t have some skepticism.
I will note the Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and Kansas are very indicative of 2014 Republican-to-2018 Democratic shifts. (Sam Brownback won re-election in 2014 Kansas by +3.69. That was the smallest Republican margin of those four states.)
One thing to consider are states which have both gubernatorial and senatorial races which will deliver same-party victories at both levels. (Meaning: Voters are deliberately cast votes for same-party carriage in however many election races.) I have mentioned it before with Florida. I think same-party outcomes will also be the case with both Ohio and Nevada.
Here is my adjustment, for likelihoods, on the governorships if the 2018 Democrats win a new majority: 17) Illinois; 18) Michigan; 19) New Mexico; 20) Maine; 21) Iowa; 22) Florida; 23) Wisconsin; 24) Nevada; and 25) Ohio. The tipping point state, if the 2018 Democrats win a new majority, will be either Georgia or Kansas. Those two, because of some specific dynamics, are not easy to figure. But, they are both flippable.
Thanks again, D, for your perceptive analysis!
Very much agree with Media Matters about this.
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/10/22/pundits-can-t-quit-their-lazy-evidence-free-talking-points-about-democrats-and-elections/221771