The possibility is growing, with one week to the midterm elections of 2018, that we may be witnessing an event no one would have thought possible at any point in American politics.
That would be the election of two African American Governors in the South, but that now seems more likely than before.
Florida is on the verge of electing Andrew Gillum its first male African American Governor, and Georgia is on the verge of electing Stacey Abrams its first, and the nation’s first, female African American Governor.
The more likely choice to win is Gillum, since Abrams’ opponent in Georgia, Brian Kemp, is the state’s Secretary of State, and has the ability to control the voting rolls, and has rejected adding 70,000 voters, most of them African American, to the voting rolls for no good reason.
Former President Jimmy Carter has asked that Kemp do the right thing and resign as Secretary of State, as he would be giving up that job after the election whether he wins or loses the Governorship, but Kemp has refused.
That election could have a second round runoff as in Georgia, one is required to win a majority of all votes cast, and there is a third independent candidate on the ballot, which may prevent any candidate from reaching 50 percent plus one.
In Florida, Ron DeSantis, the Republican opponent of Gillum, is running a nasty and racist race, making him look even more evil than outgoing Governor Rick Scott, who is trying to win the Senate seat of Bill Nelson.
It will be down to the wire in both races, and in the Florida Senate race, and hopefully, the Democrats will manage to win all three, but it is hard to be totally confident at this point.
We are one week from Election Day.
Looking at the gubernatorial elections: Should the 2018 Democrats win a new majority count of governorships, I have an estimation that they would probably win approximately +1.33 net gains for each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. In 2014, the Republicans’ U.S. Popular Vote margin, for U.S. Governors, was +4.09. So, the 2018 Democrats would be in position to win the +10 necessary if they essentially reverse that margin.
Going by “Five Thirty Eight’s†most favorable category, for the Democrats, “Lite,†and the particular order of pickups, here are the necessary national margins for the 2018 Democrats en route to that needed net gain of +10.
* * * * *
2018 [U.S. Popular Vote] Margin = 2018 [Democratic] Net Gains
• R+3 = D+1 (Illinois)
• +2.5 or +2 = +2 (Michigan)
• +1.5 = +3 (New Mexico)
• +1 or +0.5 = +4 (Maine)
[ Even = D+5 (Iowa) ]
• D+0.5 or +1 = D+6 (Florida)
• +1.5 = +7 (Wisconsin)
• +2 or +2.5 = +8 (Ohio)
• +3 = +9 (Kansas)
• +3.5 or +4 = +10 (Georgia) — Tipping Point
• +4.5 = +11 (South Dakota)
• +5 = +12 (Nevada)
I would not rank their likely order exactly as has “Five Thirty Eight.†But, since the 2018 Democrats are going to get a national shift of around +10 for flipping the U.S. House, the gubernatorials can nationally shift by +8 to deliver a new majority count.
Thanks again, D, for your further discussion of this topic!
You’re welcome, Ronald!
In this video, “The Humanist Report†host Mike Figueredo praises the Florida gubernatorial debate performance of Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum over Republican nominee Ron DeSantis. (I don’t live in Florida. But, it is quite something.)
https://youtu.be/Tz8D8drPz1w