The time has come, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2018, to come up with a final projection on the results.
The sense is that the Democrats are in better shape than many polls indicate, although it might be seen by many as fanciful thinking on my part.
But I sense that the Democrats will do very well on Tuesday, as the first time, other than special elections, to register the people’s view on Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Yes, there is the loyal base, but that is below 40 percent of the nation.
It seems clear that Independents, Suburban men and women, millennials of both genders, African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, the Jewish community, and Social Justice Catholics are united in their disgust at the behavior, policies, and corruption of Donald Trump and his administration.
The American people are a good people overall, and one must remember that Donald Trump lost the popular vote massively, but now all that matters is winning more votes than any opponent, and in that regard, Trump and the Republicans who refused to take a stand against him, are on the way to a massive repudiation by the voters.
That does not mean that every nasty Republican will lose or every Democrat that many would wish elected will be successful.
And it could be that, as in 2016, this blogger and author could be way off in his assessment, and I am prepared for that, as much as one can be.
But my inner being tells me the following:
There are so many Republican seats in play in the House of Representatives, including those that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that one has to believe that many are turning Democratic in this election—including in upstate New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, and California. So expect that while in theory there could be as many as maybe 71 or as few as 15 gains by the Democrats, my feeling is that a safe number is 40-45 seats, which if 45, would make for about 240 Democrats to 195 Republicans, basically a switch from what it is now.
In the US Senate, the Democrats would have to win a net gain of two seats, which now seems attainable. This blogger senses a gain of four Republican seats—Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and even Texas with Beto O’Rourke, but with a loss of two seats, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. But that means Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bill Nelson in Florida would retain their seats, as all three are tough political leaders. So if this all happened, a bit of a miracle, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, so the Democrats would control and organize the Senate. This prognosis also means the three leading politicians who this author has placed on his “Dream List” of those he wanted defeated, would be—-Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Marsha Blackburn.
As far as Governorships, the Democrats have 16 right now, and my projection is that they would gain the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, along with Southern states Florida and Georgia, along with New Mexico, Nevada, and New England states Maine and Vermont, giving them a total of 28 states under Democratic control. This also means that Scott Walker and Kris Kobach would not be elected in Wisconsin and Kansas, making my “Dream List” fulfilled for the first five on the list.
On the other hand, it is likely that Steve King will win in Iowa for his Congressional seat, although this blogger believes David Brat in his Richmond, Virginia Congressional seat, will lose.
So overall, all but Steve King on my “Dream List” to defeat would lose, while all five of my “Dream List” to win—Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Richard Cordray, and Gavin Newsom, would be triumphant.
This blogger and author may look silly two or three days from now, but that is my final projection, and we shall see!
Thank you, for posting your “Final Projection on the 2018 Midterm Elections,†Ronald!
Here are my official predictions:
* * * * * U.S. HOUSE * * * * *
• 2018 Prediction: Democratic pickup for a new majority
• U.S. Popular Vote Target Margin (whole number estimate): Democratic +6
• Predicted Margin: Democratic +8.50
• 2016 U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Republican +1.08 (the result: Republican 49.11% vs. Democratic 48.03%)
• Shifted Margin from 2016: Democratic +9.58
• Historical Avg.—Since 1946—Gained Seats, Per Percentage Point Nationally Shifted, from U.S. House-Flipping Midterm Elections: +3.64
• 2018 Estimated Net Seat Gains: Democratic +35
• Effective January 2019: Democrats, with 230 seats
• Map: A combination of states carried by Hillary Clinton, the losing presidential nominee of 2016, and ones which were Republican pickups, in 2016, for Donald Trump. Add to that some emerging states (ones which will flip next time the presidency switches from the Republican to the Democratic column). There are precious ones which are Republican at the presidential level, as well, and are applicable from Kansas (the 2nd Congressional District of retiring Lynn Jenkins, which is open, and the 3rd of incumbent Kevin Yoder) and, perhaps, even Utah (the 4th Congressional District of incumbent Mia Love).
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* * * * * U.S. SENATE * * * * *
• 2018 Prediction: Republican hold [retained] for majority
• U.S. Popular Vote Target Margin: Democratic +14
• Predicted Margin: Democratic +13
• 2012 U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Democratic +11.82 (the result: Republican 42.36% vs. Democratic 54.18%)
• Shifted Margin from 2012: Democratic +1
• 2018 Estimated Net Set Gains: Democratic +1
• Effective January 2019: A 50–50 tie; Republican U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will be the tie-breaker vote (when necessary)
• Map: Democrats will flip both Nevada and Arizona, the lowest margins from the 2012 Republican column; Republicans will counter-flip North Dakota, the lowest margin from the 2012 Democratic column. A link to the map is provided. Solid shades are Republican or Democratic holds; those in light shades are pickups.
http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aZGDx2.png
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* * * * * U.S. GOVERNORS * * * * *
• 2018 Prediction: Democratic pickup for a new majority
• U.S. Popular Vote Target Margin: Democratic +4
• Predicted Margin: Democratic +4.50
• 2014 U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Republican +4.09 (the result: Republican 50.33% vs. Democratic 46.24%)
• Shifted Margin from 2014: Democratic +8.59
• Historical Avg.—Since 1994—Gained Seats, Per Percentage Point Nationally Shifted in Gubernatorial Majority Pickup Midterm Elections: +1.51 (I’m going with, here in 2018, an estimate of increment gains of +1.33; or, mathematically, the national margin shift multiplied by 1.333)
• Effective January 2019: Democrats, with 27 governorships
• Map: I estimate the 2018 Democrats, with 16 governorships, will win a net gain of at least +9 to reach 25. Their likely order is as follows: 17) Illinois; 18) Michigan; 19) New Mexico; 20) Maine; 21) Iowa; 22) Florida; 23) Wisconsin; 24) Nevada; and 25) Ohio. But, since 1995, and following the 1994 midterm elections, the party which had majority in the U.S. House also had a majority count of the nation’s governorships. Rather than a tie of 25-to-25, I am predicting the 2018 Democrats will win over a new majority.
If I turn out to be correct, the tipping point state will be, from my estimate, Kansas. It is flippable especially with the 2nd and 3rd districts in favor to become U.S. House pickups for the 2018 Democrats. There are also the 1st and the 4th district shifting conspicuously in that party’s direction. (Keep in mind: In 2014, Republican Sam Brownback won re-election by +3.69, the second lowest margin of gubernatorial party hold, just after Florida’s Rick Scott and his +1.07. And Kansas has elected White House opposition-party governors since 1990. This state is very flippable.) No. 27 is Georgia. And that is a state, a bit of a tricky one, that I may write about a little later.
If the 2018 Democrats were to win over a 28th state, which would be South Dakota, they will have won the U.S. Popular Vote by just over +5. For those wanting to imagine up to 30 states, No. 29 would be Alaska and No. 30 would be Oklahoma. In order to reach that level—a net gain of +14 in governorships—the 2018 Democrats would need to win the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, by about +6.50. (If the 2018 Democrats win with this level of an outcome, they would be winning the U.S. House by more than +10, in the U.S. Popular Vote, and would be winning a net gain of seats which are north of +40.)
http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/looK.png
Thanks, D, much appreciated.
I see I am a bit more optimistic on the Senate, and the House, but not by much, and on the Governorships, we seem to agree!
It will be fun and fascinating to see how well we do! 🙂