So now America has arrived at Election Day 2018, a time when Karma is due for Donald Trump, and the future of American democracy is at stake.
America has never been at a time of crisis as we are now, since the Great Depression and Pearl Harbor.
We have a mentally unhinged President, whose lackeys keep on serving him, and whose party has rejected their responsibility to keep the President in tow.
We have a group of Republican politicians who have besmirched the reputation and principles represented historically by Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and many past Republican Senators, Congressmen, and Governors, who promoted the end of slavery, the growth of corporate regulation and social justice, and acceptance of the best aspects of the New Deal and international alliances in the war against totalitarian government.
But now, the Republican Party represents the acceptance of totalitarianism, and rejection of international alliances against evil, and domestically of basic principles of social justice and common decency.
If the Democrats do not win control of at least the House of Representatives, and hopefully also the Senate, today, and if they do not take control of a majority of state governments, then the future is gloomy, and will be intolerable for millions of decent, hard working Americans, and particularly so for women, racial minorities, Jews, the disabled, and gays and lesbians.
The Constitution and Bill of Rights are endangered by a man who “loves” Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and other dictators, and rejects the friendship and alliance of Justin Trudeau, Angela Merkel, Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron, and other leaders of democracies around the world.
Even if one is not traditionally “religious”, today is a time for prayer for the survival of the Republic we created nearly two and a half centuries ago, and now endangered by a mad man with no ethics, morals, or scruples!
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 @ 09:45 a.m. ET — I voted.
My home state Michigan has three ballot proposals which really interest me. The first is on making marijuana legal. (There are some limits.) The second is a state constitutional amendment in which the congressional districts would be created by 13 registered voters. (For the current decade, Michigan has 14 congressional districts and 16 electoral votes. It is expected the results of the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau, for population, will lower both counts by one in Michigan.) This would give four Republicans and four Democrats a role, and the remaining five would be non-affiliated, with the purpose of preventing to however much extent the continuation of gerrymandering. The third ballot proposal is for making voting easier. This is automatic registration. And it also allows for those not wanting to be auto-registered to vote to go ahead and specifically request otherwise. It all sounds good enough to me. So, I voted “yes.â€
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Over the past few days, Ronald wrote and posted blog entries on midterm election dream wins. For me, there would be more to list than I intend to get into. But, between the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors, it is the third to which I admit is most interesting to me. And I break this down into two categories to explain why.
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• The Most Deserving of Highly Likely 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Pickup Winners: Florida’s Andrew Gillum. He beat four primary competitors, including the initially favored Gwen Graham, and won a 3-point victory in much part by socking away wins in nearly all of the state’s most populous counties. Very interesting win. But, also, a smart politician in general. (I hope he truly is for Medicare for All.) Smart about politics. Smart about electoral politics—as he demonstrated in his interview with “The Young Turks’s†Cenk Uygur. (That interview, before Gillum won the primary, is posted below.) In 2014, Republican incumbent Rick Scott won re-election by +64,145 raw votes and +1.07 percentage points. One area I suspect will explain why Gillum will win a 2018 Democratic pickup for Governor of Florida is Duval County (county seat is, and it is the state’s most populous city, Jacksonville). 2014 Democratic nominee, and former governor Charlie Crist, lost there by –13 points. (Crist should not have lost there by that much.) In the 2018 primaries, Republican nominee Ron DeSantis, in a two-person race, won that county by +26 while Gillum, in his five-person race, carried it by +27. My feeling is that Gillum will shift that county’s 2014-to-2018 margin strongly to a point in which he may end up actually flipping it. Since 2000, Duval County, certainly at the presidential level, has trended away from the Republicans. It went from +16 (in 2000) to +11 (in 2004) to +5 (in 2008 and 2012) to a mere +0.17 (in 2016) points more Republican than the state of Florida. Root for Andrew Gillum, yes, but also root for Duval County to be critical with delivering victory. This will be the first Democratic gubernatorial win in Florida since 1994. (I hope it gets called right when the state’s polls close at 08:00 p.m. ET.)
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• 2018’s Most Electorally Necessary Democratic Gubernatorial Pickup: Stacey Abrams in Georgia. In past blog entries addressing the electoral map, I mentioned some companion states. That State A votes like State B; that State C votes like State D. The best companion state nowadays to Georgia is Arizona. Other than 2004, when they performed six points apart, their margins spread have been five points or less since at least the 1990s. Even in 1992 and 1996, when they official carried differently, their margins were close to each other’s. So, here with the midterm elections of 2018, Arizona is poised for important Democratic pickups for U.S. Senate (Kyrsten Sinema) and the 2nd Congressional District (Ann Kirkpatrick). This needs to also happen in Georgia. The next presidential election which switches from Republican to Democratic will likely see not one both states flip. So, as a segue to that, important Democratic pickups need to happen in Georgia.
If Stacey Abrams wins a 2018 Democratic pickup for Governor of Georgia, look for decreased 2014-to-2018 margins in Republican counties where 2018 nominee Brian Kemp would end up underperforming 2014 Nathan Deal. The current governor won 2014 re-election by +200,443 raw votes and +7.86 percentage points. 2016 Democratic presidential pickup counties, for losing nominee Hillary Clinton, were Cobb County (Marietta) and Gwinnett County (Lawrenceville). Deal won those counties by +14.21 and +11.41 points. Clinton’s Democratic pickup margins were +2.16 and +5.69.
The comparison is 2014 to 2018, because of this very office and respective results, but momentarily working off the 2016 outcomes, and that Hillary lost the state by –5.10 while Trump won a GOP hold by +5.10, it is likely a prevailing Abrams would win those counties by stronger margins than Hillary. Which is good. Which is necessary. To flip Cobb County, Abrams would get a shift of at least +14.22. To flip Gwinnett County, Abrams would get a shift of at least +11.42. That is more than the statewide margins of Deal. I would like to see Abrams would them both by at least +10. (I sense those two counties are becoming more critical to statewide results in Georgia.)
Add to this another county Hillary Clinton flipped: Henry County (McDonough). It voted for 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter with a margin of +0.66. It carried for Hillary by +4.36. I would like to see Abrams carry there by about +15.
Factoring all of this with the stronghold Democratic counties—the surrounding Atlanta area and, on the east side of the states, areas including Savannah and Augusta—with what would be solidified 2014-to-2018 Democratic margins. In other words, take Jason Carter’s numbers and just keep adding not just +8 but at least +10 here and there. And this gubernatorial election will be winnable for Abrams. Again—the Democrats, from an electoral standpoint for what it means to their party, need to strike with winning in Georgia.
What could further help Stacey Abrams is if Republican incumbent Karen Handel gets unseated in Georgia #06. It is rated a tossup It was won in 2016 by Tom Price by +23.4 points. The 2017 special election for Handel was a margin of +3.6. This area includes Cobb, DeKalb, and Fulton counties). Also: Look out for Georgia #07. This Republican incumbent Rob Woodall. His 2016 margin was +20.76. “Five Thirty Eight†rates it as Lean Republican hold with a 2018 margin between +6 and +10.
Diminished 2014-to-2018 Republican margins. Dramatically increased 2014-to-2018 ones for the Democrats. One last time—it is electorally necessary for the Democrats to see Governor of Georgia become a 2018 Democratic pickup for Stacey Abrams.
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Wow! Beto is running it close!
MSNBC gives us an 80 percent chance of taking the House.
This is turning into a good but not a great night for Democrats. If we get the House, I’ll take it.
The Senate map is where reality just overcame a good effort.
But the Dems ARE going to take the House and a number of Governorships. That’s great.
This is not the end. This is only the beginning. Organizing for 2020 begins tomorrow morning.
Go team blue!
If we win the House, that puts an end to all Trump-favored legislation for two years. We save Obamacare, social security, Medicare, and we investigate the s–t out of him. It matters. A lot.
@notlarrysabato just called VA-02 for Luria. Incredible news and one that while winnable was definitely not in the cards. So FLIP!!
The deal tonight is: Florida sucks. We’re doing pretty much as expected elsewhere.
We got the House! Trump’s rotten life is about to get a LOT worse!
Beto has earned a vacation — and then . . . Beto2020. He, obviously, knows how to get a whole lotta votes in Red areas.
H-E-L-L JUST FROZE OVER. Democrats won a seat in Oklahoma. CD-5, Oklahoma City & Norman. First time a Democrat has held this office since 1975.
Beto, having served in the House, has more experience than Trump had, so certainly COULD be a potential candidate in 2020, but already a crowded race! Maybe for Vice President, instead of the Presidency in 2020!
Spanberger still leading in VA-07—just outside the range for a recount. Poetic justice—Eric Cantor’s old seat could be on the verge of going down.
Defeating David Brat would be glorious victory!
50 things that went well on Election Day.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/11/07/50-things-that-went-very-well-on-election-day/