The Aftermath Of The Midterm Elections: A Lot Of Positives, But Also Negatives

Ronald 32 Comments

Now that the Midterm Elections of 2018 are over, after having time to think about the events that transpired, several conclusions are clear.

There certainly were positives, but also negatives.

The big positives were that the House of Representatives once again fell into the hands of the Democrats, after eight years in the wilderness, and Nancy Pelosi, who was an excellent Speaker from 2007-2011, is likely to become Speaker again, although there is a movement among younger and new members to have someone else as their leader, to be decided in the coming weeks.

Another big positive is the gain of a substantial number of new Governorships, including in the all important Midwest, and having a majority of governorships insures a better future for the Democratic Party when the Census of 2020 occurs, and reapportionment of seats in state legislatures and in the House of Representatives occurs in 2021 and 2022.

A third big positive is that some of the most disgraceful and despicable Republicans lost, including Scott Walker, Kris Kobach, and David Brat.

However, some major negatives stand out, and the most significant is the loss of at least two Senate seats or more, although it is also clear that the Democrats have gained at least one Senate seat in Nevada, and may win in Arizona. However, they have lost North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, and likely, Florida,

Also, the most disappointing aspect of the election was in my state of Florida, where it looks like Governor Rick Scott is likely to defeat Senator Bill Nelson, and where right wing extremist Ron DeSantis has defeated Andrew Gillum, who would have been the first African American governor, and had developed quite a following.

Also, it seems as if Stacey Abrams, who would be the first African American female governor in American history, is likely losing the Georgia Governor race to Brian Kemp, another right wing extremist.

And Beto O’Rourke did well, but still lost to Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race.

So it is a mixed bag in regards to the results of the midterm elections.

32 comments on “The Aftermath Of The Midterm Elections: A Lot Of Positives, But Also Negatives”

  3. Former Republican November 7, 2018 6:20 pm

    As a former federal prosecutor and colleague of Mueller told MSNBC today, contingency planning runs in Mueller’s veins.

  7. Princess Leia November 7, 2018 10:49 pm

    Rachel said that protests are planned for tomorrow nationwide at 5 local time.

  9. Rational Lefty November 7, 2018 10:57 pm

    Lawrence summed it up best:

    Democrats win
    Trump panics

  10. D November 8, 2018 1:30 am

    Ronald,

    Since June, I had a lot of fun determining necessary numbers for what it would take for the 2018 Democrats to flip the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors. (Meaning, how many net gains in seats for each percentage point nationally shifted in the Democrats’ direction.)

    From the last of the three, I am glad I took a chance having predicted the Democratic pickup of Laura Kelly, over Republican Kris Kobach, for Governor of Kansas. This is a state which, since 1990, has elected White House opposition-party governors. It continued the pattern here in 2018. Sam Brownback was horrible for Kansas. It was too bad he won a second term in 2014. Republicans have been generally very bad for Kansas. So, this was a necessary flip. And that race wasn’t close. Last I looked, Kelly took it by nearly +4.50 percentage points.

    At this time [Thursday, 11.08.2018, @ 01:30 a.m. ET], it is too soon to know exactly how many net gains were won by the 2018 Democrats with having flipped the U.S. House. But, my guess of an estimated +35 looks pretty good. This means an estimated new majority of 230. There may be 230+. “ABC News” has the Ds at +29, for 224. (There are approximately 15 U.S. House races not projected.) Among the likely additional Democratic pickups not officially projected: New Mexico #02 (which would give the Ds all congressional districts in that state, plus both U.S. Senate seats, and their 2018 pickup of the governorship!), Utah #04 (unseating Mia Love), Washington #08, and Georgia #06 (if that manifests with unseating Karen Handel). There is also Maine #02 (incumbent Bruce Poliquin). And not all districts are projected from California, including the 48th (incumbent Dana Rohrabacher) and 49th districts.

    Much of what Ronald observed echoes some of the rest of my thoughts. (I will quickly mention that, if I have my count correct, the state of Virginia is going to have 7 of its 11 congressional districts in the Democratic Party’s column. This includes the unseating of Dave Brat in Virginia #07.) I do want to point out that I, as a resident of Michigan, appreciate the “yes” outcomes to pass all three ballot measures: recreational marijuana to be legalized; adopting of the district boundaries by citizens (with four Republicans, four Democrats, and five non-affiliated); and easier access to voting which authorizes automatic—and Election Day—registration (plus no-reason absentee voting).

  11. Ronald November 8, 2018 7:04 am

    Yes, D, it was fun doing prognosticating, and I think both you and I did fairly well in that regard, although, clearly, we are both disappointed in some of the results, particularly with Gillum, Abrams, Beto, and Cordray.

    But Trump knows he has been repudiated, and is acting in a panicky manner, and that, while, of course, disturbing, is also satisfying! LOL

  15. D November 8, 2018 5:02 pm

    Here is some updated information (as of 11.08.2018 @ 05:00 p.m. ET):

    * * * * * 2018 U.S. HOUSE — GENDER VOTE * * * * *
    • Male (48): Republican 51% Democratic 47% (R+4)
    • Female (52): Republican 40% Democratic 59% (D+19)
    • Republican Votes: .48 x 51% = 24.48; .52 x 40 = 20.80; 24.48 + 20.80 = 45.28%
    • Democratic Votes: .48 x .47 = 22.56%; .52 x .59 = 30.68; 22.56 + 30.68 = 53.24%
    • Margin: Democratic +7.96
    • 2016 to 2018 Shift: Democratic +9.04

    * * * * * 2018 U.S. HOUSE — PARTY ID * * * * *
    • Republican (33): Republican 94% Democratic 06% (R+88)
    • Democratic (37): Republican 04% Democratic 95% (D+91)
    • Independent (30): Republican 42% Democratic 54% (D+12)
    • Republican Votes .33 x 94 = 31.02%; .37 x 04 = 1.48%; .30 x 42 = 12.60; 31.02 + 1.48 + 12.60 = 45.10%
    • Democratic Votes: .33 x 06 = 1.98%; .37 x 95 = 35.15%; .30 x 54 = 16.20%; 1.98 + 35.15 + 16.20 = 53.33%
    • Margin: Democratic +8.23
    • 2016 to 2018 Shift: Democratic +9.31

    * * * * * STATUS (11.08.2018 @ 05:00 p.m. ET) — “ABC News” * * * * *
    • Republican 200
    • Democratic 225
    • Not Called: 10
    • Net Gain [Posting Time]: Democratic +30
    • To Be Determined: Republican 200 to 210 vs. Democratic 225 to 235
    • Estimate: Democratic 230 to 234

    * * * * * U.S. HOUSE RACES NOT YET CALLED * * * * *
    • California #10 — Leaning Republican (Hold)
    • California #39 — Leaning Republican (Hold)
    • California #45 — Leaning Republican (Hold)
    • California #48 — Leaning Democratic (Pickup)
    • California #49 — Leaning Democratic (Pickup)
    • Maine #02 — Tossup; CNN.com reports 48% of the vote is in; 800-vote Republican lead
    • Minnesota #01 — Leaning Republican (Pickup)
    • New Jersey #03 — Leaning Democratic (Pickup)
    • New Mexico #02 — Leaning Democratic (Pickup)
    • Utah #04 — Leaning Democratic (Pickup)

    A lot of these races are 99 or 100 percent in. It looks like the 2018 Democrats will get at least 231 seats. Maine #02 is very possible. Some of the Lean Republicans, from California, are not definite. So, they appear to lean that way—as others lean the other way.

    The race for Georgia #06—Republican incumbent Karen Handel vs. Democratic challenger Lisa McBath—was projected today as a Democratic pickup.

    If New Mexico #02 flips—and I think it will—the Democratic Party will have all the state’s congressional districts, its two U.S. Senate seats, and its pickup of the governorship in the party’s column.

  18. Ronald November 8, 2018 5:28 pm

    Thanks for the updates, D, and thanks to everyone else for your input, much appreciated!

  21. Rational Lefty November 8, 2018 7:55 pm

    On ABC News tonight, I heard that Florida is likely to have a recount of both the senate race and the governor’s race.

    Also, mentioned on ABC News is that Mueller may be finalizing his report.

  22. D November 8, 2018 8:06 pm

    *** UPDATE 11.08.2018 @ 08:00 p.m. ET ***

    Results are not in fully for U.S. Senate from Arizona.

    Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema overtook Republican nominee Martha McSally for the lead.

    * * * * * WITH 83% IN * * * * *

    U.S. SENATE — ARIZONA
    • Martha McSally (R) 922,724
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 931,583 (+8,859)

    Maricopa County is in. Well, it is “100% est. in.” Sinema won it by +2.5. But the state is just under 85 percent in. So, I sense outstanding vote still is being counted in Maricopa County. It is home to over 60 percent of the state’s population. Its county seat is Phoenix. It is a county trending bellwether to the state.

    Yuma County is 98 percent in. McSally has 20,966. Sinema has 17,526. Total votes: 38,492. With two more left, expected votes: 39,261. Remaining: 769.

    My feeling is that Sinema may win this U.S. Senate seat, from Arizona, in a Democratic pickup.

    If one wants to follow the results (go to information on Arizona) :

    https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results

  27. Rational Lefty November 9, 2018 7:41 pm

    Just saw this update concerning the vote on Ari’s show tonight.

    Dems. crushed Trump in biggest midterm blowout in 40 years

    In a Special Report, Ari Melber breaks down how Democrats had a decisive victory in the 2018 midterm elections, winning more House seats than they have in 40 years. Melber examines the myth of divided Government and shows how Americans have not been going back-and-forth in deciding which party should win the White House, but have in fact, by popular vote, preferred a Democrat for President in 6 of the last 7 Presidential races.

    http://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari-melber/watch/ari-dems-crushed-trump-in-biggest-midterm-blowout-in-40-years-1365684803572?v=railb&

  28. D November 9, 2018 10:03 pm

    *** UPDATE 11.09.2018 @ 10:00 p.m. ET ***

    The latest results for U.S. Senate from Arizona.

    * * * * * WITH 84% EXPECTED VOTES IN * * * * *

    U.S. SENATE — ARIZONA
    • Martha McSally (R) 971,331
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 991,433 (+20,102)

    YUMA COUNTY, ARIZONA — 98% EXPECTED VOTE IN
    • Martha McSally (R) 22,189 (+2,677)
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 19,512

    MARICOPA COUNTY, ARIZONA — 100% PRECINCTS REPORTING
    • Martha McSally (R) 556,076 [47%]
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 595,444 [51%] (+39,368)

    On Twitter, Dave Wassersman and others are having a discussion of the expected vote not yet having come in. They think the votes are mainly concentrated in Maricopa County.

    (Quick Note: In the governor race, re-elected Republican Doug Ducey took both the state and Maricopa County by just over +15. So, it may be that Maricopa County is now a bellwether to the state county in Arizona. In the presidential election of 2016, Donald Trump won Arizona by +3.50 and Maricopa County by +2.84.)

    The above indication from Yuma County is that there are over 800 votes not yet in. That estimate of “98” percent can lean to more like 1,000 votes not yet in.

    It looks very much to me that, unlike what had appeared on Election Night, the open U.S. Senate election from Arizona will have flipped from Republican (retiring Jeff Flake) to Democratic (for Kyrsten Sinema).

  29. D November 12, 2018 4:33 pm

    * * * * * UPDATE 11.12.2018 @ 04:30 p.m. ET * * * * *

    “Arizona Republic” has a report which essentially says that Martha McSally has little chance of winning a Republican hold of the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona. It is highly likely to flip Democratic to Kyrsten Sinema. It is basically because of Maricopa County (Phoenix). It is becoming a bellwether county to the state.

    * * * * * * * * * *

    ‘Kyrsten Sinema widens lead again over Martha McSally in pivotal day for Arizona’s U.S. Senate race’

    By Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Ronald J. Hansen, “Arizona Republic”
    http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/11/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-senate-race-ballot-counting-results/1967206002/

    “The ‘Arizona Republic’ estimates about 215,000 ballots remain to be counted statewide.

    “To remain competitive, McSally needs to outperform all of her previous showings in Maricopa County, the state’s most populous area and one that Sinema has dominated.

    …

    ““With the latest ballot count, Kyrsten’s lead is insurmountable,” Andrew Piatt’s statement said. ‘McSally’s campaign said today’s results would be her ‘firewall’ but as we expected, no firewall emerged … Kyrsten has now expanded her overall lead to 32,640 or 1.52 percent, meaning McSally would have to win the remainder of Maricopa County ballots by 22 percent to take the lead in this race. This is not plausible. Kyrsten will be declared the next U.S. Senator from Arizona.’”

    …

    Pending outcomes from Florida and Mississippi, here is the post-Election 2018 U.S. Senate map:

    http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/a6G3m2.png

  30. D November 12, 2018 9:17 pm

    * * * * * UPDATE 11.12.2018 @ 09:15 p.m. ET * * * * *

    It has now been projected that the 2018 winner of the U.S. Senate election in Arizona is, in a Democratic pickup, Kyrsten Sinema.

    Here is a report:

    ‘Kyrsten Sinema beats out Martha McSally for Flake’s Arizona Senate seat’

    http://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/kyrsten-sinema-wins-highly-contested-race-for-senate-over-martha-mcsally

    “Phoenix — Kyrsten Sinema has defeated Martha McSally in the highly contested race for an Arizona Senate seat, per the [‘Associated Press’]. This comes after several days of ballot counting and controversy over rural county results.”

  31. Southern Liberal November 12, 2018 10:07 pm

    Arizona’s now purple.

  32. Rustbelt Democrat November 12, 2018 10:14 pm

    Rump lying about voter fraud is how he’s going to react if he doesn’t win in 2020.

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