Orange County California, with a population of about three million people, sandwiched between Los Angeles and San Diego, has long been conservative Republican “Country”, but in the Midterm Elections of 2018, all of the Congressional districts went to the Democrats, a startling development.
The heroes of Orange County have been Ronald Reagan, and before him, Barry Goldwater, and Democrats knew they had no opportunity to succeed in that Southern California bastion.
But now, not only did Democrats gain all four seats in that county, but also won seven of the 14 formerly Republican held seats in the California state delegation, making for a total of 46-7, compared to the former 39-14 division between Democrats and Republicans.
The Republican nominee for Governor, John Cox, lost Orange County by a hair to incoming Governor Gavin Newsom as well.
The Republican Party is dead in California for now, although the House Minority Leader is Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield.
It all started 25 years ago when the Republicans promoted nativism and bigotry under Governor Pete Wilson against Latinos and other immigrants, and started their generation long decline in the Golden State.
The same is likely in the future for Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida, and if these named states start to veer to the Democrats, which is likely in the 2020s, then the Democrats will have a lock on the Electoral College, after being victimized twice in 2000 and 2016.
On June 1, 2018, Ronald wrote another blog topic on the nation’s No. 1 most populous state: “California Has Larger Economy Now Than the United Kingdom (Great Britain), Fifth Largest in World†( https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=33901 ). I responded to it. So, I won’t get into Orange County, Calfornia, here, but will mention some other observations outside California.
I will share a pattern I notice I about my home state Michigan.
In 2016, when Donald Trump won a Republican pickup of the state with a margin of +0.22, he won Kent County (Grand Rapids), which had usually been the most reliable populous county in Michigan for Republicans, by only +3.05. This followed 2012 losing Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who lost in Michigan to re-elected Barack Obama by –9.46, won Kent County by +7.65. In 2008, with his Democratic pickup of the presidency also delivering a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7.26, Obama carried Michigan by a landslide +16.44. That was enough to deliver a Democratic pickup of Kent County by +0.51.
Since 1964, Election 2008 is the only one in which Kent County has carried Democratic in a presidential election. It typically votes between +15 to +25 percentage points more Republican than the state of Michigan.
That’s changing.
In 2016, with a Republican pickup of the presidency and the state, Kent County voted only +2.83 percentage points more Republican than Michigan.
Some interesting results happened in Michigan and Kent County in the midterm elections of 2018.
Kent County delivered Democratic pickups to Democratic pickup winning Gov. Elect Gretchen Whitmer and re-elected incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
Whitmer and Stabenow won in very different ways.
Flipping the Michigan governorship from 2014 Republican [hold] to 2018 Democratic [pickup], Whitmer experienced a +13.62 shift (that is, from 2014 to 2018) to win by +9.56. She won a pickup of Kent County by +3.95. This was after re-elected Republican Gov. Rick Snyder carried it, in 2014, by +26.37. This is a county which had 188,372 votes cast for Governor of Michigan in 2014 and moved up to 280,291 votes cast in 2018. That was a roughly 50-percent increase in total votes, from 2014 to 2018, but those shifted margins, and it resulting in a Democratic pickup, was incredible. Basically, this county went from giving GOP/Snyder an extra +22.31 points in support (he won re-election by +4.06) to flipping for Whitmer while tilting GOP-vs.-statewide by only +5.61.
Winning a Democratic hold for U.S. Senate, in Michigan, Debbie Stabenow’s 2012 margin was +20.82 percentage points. She outperformed re-elected Barack Obama’s carriage of Michigan, at +9.46, by an extra +11.36. Stabenow’s 2018 re-election, for a fourth term, saw her underperform, winning by +6.50 points. In 2012, Kent County carried for losing Republican Pete Hoekstra, and he is from the Grand Rapids area, by +3.43. In 2018, Kent County became a Democratic pickup for Stabenow by +0.31. So, in 2012, Kent County tilted for GOP/Hoekstra an extra +24.25 percentage points in support. In 2018, the losing Republican nominee John James—although he did get Stabenow to underperform her 2012-to-2018 margins (a decline of –14.32)—lost the county as it tiled county-to-state only +6.19 for his party.
Contrast Michigan’s Kent County to Monroe County (Monroe), the I–75 border county (Michigan/Ohio).
In 2012, Barack Obama won Michigan by +9.46 and Monroe County by +0.99. Now, it does generally tilt Republican vs. the state. (John Kerry, in 2004, lost it because he won Michigan by only +3.42.) But, usually Monroe County did not run so highly for the GOP as had Kent County. That changed in 2016. Donald Trump flipped the state by +0.22, yes, but also did that with Monroe County by +21.97. So, in 2012, Monroe County was a GOP tilt of +8.47. In 2016, it became a GOP tilt of +21.75.
In 2014, Monroe County carried for Gov. Rick Snyder by +6.01. He won statewide by +4.06. So, the tilt was Republican +1.95. In 2018, losing Republican Bill Schuette won Monroe County by +8.00. Given Gretchen Whitmer’s Democratic statewide pickup of +9.56, that made Monroe County +17.56 more Republican than Michigan.
In the 2012 U.S. Senate election, while Debbie Stabenow won Michigan by +20.82 she won won Monroe County by +16.55. In 2018, Stabenow lost Monroe County as Republican John James flipped it by +11.32. There was just under a 10,000 difference in votes cast in 2012 and 2018. (Less than 75,000 votes cast with in each of 2012 and 2018.) And Michigan delivered Democratic net gains for the governorship and two congressional districts.
So, in my home state, Kent County vs. Monroe County are diverging. They’re moving in opposite directions. They are gradually in the process of switching their levels of party vs. the state support.
This is a topic which has me thinking of changing voting patterns. Possibly realigning ones. That some states’ counties, which we are used to seeing for a given party, are moving away from said party. That some are actually switching.
One such example is Luzerne County (Wilkes–Barre) in Pennsylvania. While it carried for re-elected Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, re-elected Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey lost it. In 2012, Casey won Luzerne County by +11.22 while he won statewide by +9.10. In 2018, winning re-election statewide by +12.89, a 2012-to-2018 increase of +3.79, Casey saw Luzerne County flip Republican, for losing nominee Louis J. Barletta, with a margin of 8.23. This is a county which cast more than 100,000 votes, in 2018, while the Democrats experienced increased support in the Key Stone State (re-election margins for Wolf and Casey, yes, but also the flippings of four U.S. House seats, while the Republicans countered one, for a net gain of +3).
Why is Luzerne County important? It was one of only three Pennsylvania counties which switched from 2012 Democrat Barack Obama to 2016 Republican Donald Trump and ultimately led to Trump winning his GOP pickup of Pennsylvania. It has also been a bellwether county to the state. Since 1936, at the presidential level, as Luzerne County has gone so too has the state of Pennsylvania. Luzerne County gave 2012 re-elected Democrat Barack Obama a margin of +4.79 while he won the state by +5.38. Trump flipped the state by +0.72 and Luzerne County by +19.30. In 2012, the county acted as a bellwether to the state, tilting slightly to the GOP by +0.59. In 2016, the county gave GOP/Trump an extra +18.68. (There were an estimated average of 130,000 votes cast in 2012 and 2016.)
There are more states one can go over. (Colorado is personally very interesting to me. And there is something to say about Ohio.) But, when considering California and Orange County, Michigan and Kent and Monroe counties, and Pennsylvania and Luzerne County—I think going over some characteristics of states’ counties, general information about them (and their voters), may help to explain some changing trends. They can speak to realigning voting patterns. They can also suggest possible changes in future politics. (Suggested reading: Thomas Frank’s “Listen, Liberal.†He has me thinking of “the professional class†and “the working class.â€)
Thanks so much, D, for your perceptive and detailed analysis, much appreciated, as always!