Month: December 2018

Growing Likelihood Of Challengers To Donald Trump For GOP Presidential Nomination In 2020

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With Donald Trump being “individual No. 1”, clearly the center of probes by Robert Mueller, the Special Counsel, and also by the Southern District of New York, the likelihood grows of Republicans, who have just come off a 40 seat loss in the House and control of the lower chamber, being alarmed enough that serious challengers to Donald Trump’s nomination for a second term seem likely.

One can expect the following Republicans to consider challenges to Trump.

Outgoing Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney, the 2012 Presidential nominee.

Outgoing Arizona Senator Jeff Flake.

Former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

There could be others as well, but this list seems quite realistic, although the more that challenge Trump, the less likely there would be success.

It would be much easier if only one challenger took the bait, and went after Trump.

One can think back to 1979-1980, when President Jimmy Carter was challenged by both Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and California Governor Jerry Brown.  

The one thing about even one challenger to a sitting President is that the result has been that while the President won the nomination, he ended up losing the election, with three of the four times losing massively.

William Howard Taft won only 23 percent in 1912 after being challenged by former President Theodore Roosevelt, and having to deal with TR as the Progressive Party nominee, as well as Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson.

Jimmy Carter won only 41 percent in 1980 after being challenged by Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, and having to deal with an independent nominee, John Anderson, as well as Republican nominee Ronald Reagan.

George H. W.  Bush won only 37 percent in 1992 after being challenged by Pat Buchanan, and having to deal with independent nominee Ross Perot and Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

At this point, before we begin the new year, it would seem as if John Kasich would have the upper hand on a challenge over others, and that Ben Sasse, representing a new generation of conservative leadership, would be an additional major challenge to Trump, were Sasse willing to mount a campaign.

Of course, any challenge to Trump would also be indirectly a challenge to Vice President Mike Pence as the “heir apparent”.

Mueller Investigation Proves Donald Trump Has Committed Impeachable Acts, But Trump Denies Everything

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The Robert Mueller investigation, as of Friday, has proved that Donald Trump has committed impeachable acts, but Trump denies everything.

The next two years, clearly, will see a constant battle over Trump, as he clearly has no intentions of leaving office.

The 2020 election seems more than ever a battle for the Constitution and American democracy.

The fireworks we have seen in two years of Donald Trump are just the prelude to the most tumultuous and dangerous moment in American history, far surpassing even the Civil War, the Great Depression and World War II, and Richard Nixon and the Watergate Crisis.

With a divided Congress, impeachment seems likely, but absolutely no possibility of the Republican controlled US Senate doing the right thing, and moving to convict and remove the President by a two thirds vote.

It is clear that Donald Trump cares more about himself than he does for the nation, and will stop at nothing to divide us, and attempt to win a second term.

It would seem highly unlikely that he could possibly win a second term, but in theory, he could cobble together a combination of states and electoral votes and pull another victory out, even with public opinion polls unlikely to ever show a majority support him.

One even has to wonder if he lost reelection, whether he would accept defeat and leave office on January 20, 2021, and how the government bureaucracy would conduct itself in such an eventuality.

By comparison,  Richard Nixon looks so much more principled and respectful of the Constitution, while Donald Trump is clearly of a totalitarian mind, and somehow, he must be stopped and removed from office.

The Best 14 Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates For 2020

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As one looks ahead to 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate who he considers to be the 14 best potential Democratic Presidential candidates for 2020.

There are an estimated 30 or more potential candidates who might announce for President, but many of them seem wanting in many respects, and as stated by this author yesterday, having more than about a dozen would be counterproductive.

Of course, individual politicians who wish to run are not going to concern themselves with numbers, but I wish to indicate the list that I feel is the most legitimate, and most likely, that we will see the final few Presidential contenders emerging  as  serious possibilities.

So in no special order, except by geographical sections, here goes:

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey

Former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware

Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro of Texas

Former Congressman Robert Francis (Beto) O’Rourke of Texas

Governor Steve Bullock of Montana

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Senator Kamala Harris of California

Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles

Congressman Eric Swalwell of California

So the list includes 8 Senators, 2 House members past or present, three Mayors past or present, 1 Governor, and 1 former Vice President of the United State, who served in the Senate for 36 years..

It is an impressive list, heavily weighted toward US Senators, but with some alternatives from elsewhere, and some from farther left and others more toward the moderate center, with the question being what is the best strategy for the Democrats for the Presidential campaign of 2020.

Democratic Donnybrook Could Endanger Chances Of Democratic Party Unity For 2020

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Now that the nation is looking toward the new 116th Congress, opening on Thursday, January 3, with a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and a Republican controlled Senate, attention is starting to be paid to the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020.

The season for announcing one’s candidacy is upon us, and already, it seems clear that the Democrats are going to offer the nation too many candidates.

The all time record is the Republicans in 2016 offering 17 candidates, and it forced debates to be two rounds, which was totally preposterous and confusing, and benefited Donald Trump.

We might, this round for the Democratic party, be faced with 30 or more potential nominees, but honestly, that is totally crazy.

This author believes that more than 12 candidates makes a mockery of the process, and it is urgent that potential candidates be realistic, and not shoot for the stars, so to speak.

It is counterproductive for many, who realistically have to believe their chances are limited, to crowd a field of candidates with much more funding, name recognition, staff, and journalistic attention required to sustain themselves, but not available for so many candidates.

An ideal group of 12 would include some veterans of presidential campaigning; some newcomers; some racial and ethnic representatives; some women; and some from diverse geographical sections of the nation.

Not everyone has the personality, temperament, and ability to be President, and it is essential that a tone of realism is introduced into the process.

If the Democrats become engaged in a full scale donnybrook, it will endanger the chance of the party for unity in 2020, and could lead to Republican retention of the White House.

Donald Trump: The Mafia Boss, The Mob Boss, The Drug Cartel Boss, The Traitor Greater Than Benedict Arnold

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As Robert Mueller is getting ready to reveal much of the details of his 19 month investigation into President Donald Trump and his administration, it has become clear to the nation, if they had any doubts, that our President is a criminal, a crook, a felon.

He acts like a Mafia Boss, a Mob Boss, a Drug Cartel Boss.

And he is also a traitor to America, far greater than Benedict Arnold in the American Revolution.

He has been engaging in Obstruction of Justice, Abuse of Power, Violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, Russian Collusion, and has headed the most corrupt administration in American history, much greater than Richard Nixon.

His cabinet officers are the most corrupt and crooked group ever assembled.

Everyone who has worked with him has been exposed as having engaged in corrupt activity, with only a few exceptions, including Nikki Haley, H. R. McMaster, James Mattis, and Jon Huntsman Jr.

His Vice President, Mike Pence, has been engaged in much of the corruption, and has sold his soul to Donald Trump, and may very well be indicted, and forced out of the Vice Presidency, as Spiro Agnew was under Richard Nixon in 1973.

No First Family has been as villainous as Trump’s family, and any good will visited upon First Lady Melania Trump is gone, after her recent arrogant and despicable behavior.

Everyone around Trump is just in for the money, the power, and for self aggrandizement, and the Trump Presidency, however it ends, will go down as number 44 out of 44, until the next President makes Trump number 45 and continuing into the future.

Is George H. W. Bush The “Best” One Term President In American History, Surpassing James K. Polk, And What About Jimmy Carter?

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Now that George H. W. Bush is part of American history, the question arises whether he should be judged the “best” one term President in American history.

We have had the following 12 one term elected Presidents who finished their term, but were not given a second term:

John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
James K. Polk
Franklin Pierce
James Buchanan
Rutherford B. Hayes
Benjamin Harrison
William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George H. W. Bush

Eight of them, all but Polk, Pierce, Buchanan, and Hayes were defeated for reelection, with those four choosing not to run, and all of these four, except Polk, very unpopular and aware that they were not wanted to be nominated for another term.

The usual viewpoint has been that James K. Polk, with the acquisition of the American Southwest by war with Mexico, and acquisition of the Pacific Northwest by the Oregon treaty with Great Britain, was the most successful one term President. Labeled an expansionist and an imperialist by many, the fact that he presided over the greatest expansion of US territory since Thomas Jefferson, has helped him to be regarded by scholars as a “successful” President, rated 12 to 14 in scholarly polls.

Now, some are saying that George H. W. Bush may be greater than Polk, due to his foreign policy accomplishments in particular, including the end of the Cold War, the unification of Germany, and the Persian Gulf War, along with his domestic policies of “A Thousand Points Of Light”, and the Americans With Disabilities Act.

Some on this list, including Van Buren, Pierce, Buchanan, Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, Taft, and Hoover are seen in a poor light, while J. Q. Adams is seen as not having succeeded in his one term, although a great man, and his father, John Adams, criticized for the Alien and Sedition Acts in 1798, curbing civil liberties during his term.

The only other one term President who could be seen as competing would be Jimmy Carter, with his Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, the Panama Canal Treaty, his Human Rights advocacy, his creation of new cabinet agencies (Departments of Education, Health And Human Services, Energy), and his exceptional record on the environment, but his negatives, including high inflation, the Iranian hostage crisis, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Cuban Mariel Boat Lift all help to undermine his case.

So, one could argue that Polk and Bush may be competitive as the “best” one term elected President, without a clear cut answer to the question of who was the better President.

It might be best to say that Polk was the best 19th century one term elected President, while Bush was the best 20th century one term elected President, with Jimmy Carter as the runner up in that regard.

The Fourth Period Of Six Living Presidents Ends With Death Of George H. W. Bush

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We have just seen the end of the fourth time in American history that we have had six living Presidents.

The first time was in 1861-1862, from March to January, a total of about 10 and a half months, when we had President Abraham Lincoln, and former Presidents Martin Van Buren, John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, and James Buchanan, until John Tyler died in January 1862.

The second time was 1993-1994 from January to April, a total of about 15 months, when we had President Bill Clinton, and former Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, until Richard Nixon died in April 1994.

The third time, the longest time, was 2001-2004, from January to June, a total of about 40 and a half months, when we had President George W. Bush, and former Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, until Ronald Reagan died in in June 2004.

And now, the fourth and last time, was 2017-2018, from January to November, a total of about 22 and a half months, the second longest time, when we had President Donald Trump, and former Presidents Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, until George H. W. Bush died on the last day of November 2018.

The odds of having a fifth period of six Presidents anytime soon seems unlikely, as Jimmy Carter, at age 94, would seem unlikely to have much more life longevity, but if Donald Trump were to be forced out of office, in the next two years, or be defeated, and Carter stayed in good health, it could happen.

The Negative Side Of The Presidency Of George H. W. Bush

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As George H. W. Bush lies in state before his funeral on Wednesday and his burial on Thursday, praise and plaudits have been visited on the 41st President.

But as with all Presidents and all government leaders worldwide and historically, there is a negative side.

Among the shortcomings of the 41st President are the following in no particular order:

Bush ignored the AIDS Epidemic crisis, much like his predecessor, Ronald Reagan, allowing the Religious Right Wing to set the agenda on a hate campaign against gays and lesbians.

Bush switched his pro choice views on abortion by picking up the Reagan viewpoint on women, and sacrificing his beliefs, while his own wife Barbara quietly continued to support abortion rights.

Bush ran a nasty, dirty, and despicable campaign for President in 1988 against the Democratic nominee, Michael Dukakis, allowing falsehoods and distortions to be promoted, without any consideration of the damage his campaign manager Lee Atwater was engaged in.

Bush pursued a Mideast policy that led to long term disaster, and placing troops on a permanent basis in the Middle East led to September 11 and the Iraq War and Afghanistan War.

Bush as CIA head backed dictatorships in Latin America, particularly in Chile and Argentina.

Bush promoted a tough war on drugs, as Ronald Reagan had done, and it victimized people of color much more than whites, and caused prison terms that are now seen as a failed policy, that did not really get to the issue of how to treat those addicted to drugs.

Bush was involved in the Iran Contra Scandal under President Reagan, never fully explored, and ended up giving pardons to many who were part of that scandal, right before he left office in 1993.

Bush made a horrible appointment to the Supreme Court when he nominated Clarence Thomas in 1991, and the nation has been burdened with his influence for the past 27 years, including many potential future Supreme Court nominees who worked for Thomas, and are now being put on the Circuit Courts under President Donald Trump, setting up a future Court with even greater Thomas impact than just himself.

Bush also gave us the most ill qualified, incompetent Vice President in modern history, Dan Quayle, and when Bush had medical issues in office, it made the nation worry at the thought of a President Quayle.

These nine points mentioned above make an assessment of the ultimate historical significance of George H. W. Bush much more complicated than the fulsome praise now being promoted at the time of his passing.

Five Milestones Await Jimmy And Rosalynn Carter, And Carter Vice President Walter Mondale In 2019

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The year 2019 will be a year of five milestones for Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter, and for Vice President Walter Mondale, if fate is kind to them.

The 39th President is finishing his 38th year in retirement, and he and Vice President Walter Mondale will add more to their record of survival in retirement in 2019, with Mondale reaching the age of 91 on January 5, 2019.

On March 22, 2019, Jimmy Carter will surpass the age longevity of George H. W. Bush.

On August 18, 2019, First Lady Rosalynn Carter will reach the age of 92, with only Bess Truman, Nancy Reagan, Lady Bird Johnson, Betty Ford and Barbara Bush having longer life spans.

On October 1, 2019, Jimmy Carter will reach age 95.

And on October 17, 2019, the marriage longevity of Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter will surpass the longevity of the marriage of George H. W. Bush and Barbara Bush, at 73 years and 102 days.

George H. W. Bush And John Adams: Comparisons

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With the death of George H. W. Bush, we can make many comparisons with John Adams.

Both were born in Massachusetts.

Both served as Vice President under their Presidents for eight years, John Adams under George Washington, and George H. W. Bush under Ronald Reagan.

Both only had one term as President, defeated for reelection.

Both are seen as lower in ranking than their predecessors, George Washington and Ronald Reagan, who served two terms in office.

Both had the President elected after them rank higher in rankings of Presidents, and both Thomas Jefferson and Bill Clinton served two terms in office.

Both outlived their wives.

Both had a son become President, and live to see that occur.

Both reached to the age of 90, with Adams being the longest lived until Ronald Reagan, then Gerald Ford, then George H. W. Bush, and then Jimmy Carter surpassed his age.

Bush died at the oldest age of any President, although Jimmy Carter could surpass Bush if he lives to March 22, 2019.

Both died after 25 plus years in retirement.

Both have been rated higher than their son, John Quincy Adams and George W. Bush, in rankings of historians and political scientists, and it is unlikely that their sons will ever surpass them.