The possibility now exists, after “Beto” O’Rourke ran the best Democratic race for statewide office in Texas by a Democrat in 30 years, when he came close to defeating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in November 2018, that the state might turn “Blue” in the near future.
If O’Rourke or former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro ends up running as the Presidential or even Vice Presidential nominee in 2020 for the Democrats, the party might win the 38 electoral votes of Texas, replacing the need for the Midwest states that Hillary Clinton lost to be won if the Democrats are to gain the White House.
And if Joaquin Castro, Julian’s identical twin brother, now a Congressman from San Antonio, runs against Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, and is able to win the state, it will be ever more insurance on the short term and long term future of Texas in the Democratic camp.
Following Ronald’s blog topic, “Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico: The Five Most Predictable States in Presidential Elections In American History†(September 15, 2018 @ https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34829), I wrote numerous responses. One of them was “Texas—With a Twist.†I noted that just four times, since the first post-Civil War presidential election of 1868, has there been a presidential election that saw all of the Top 10 populous states get carried: 1936, 1964, 1980, and 1984. In each case, Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, and the two for Ronald Reagan resulted in them carrying at least 80 percent of the nation’s states. I also noted a trade-off may be in the making: Texas can finally go blue, yes, but long-established bellwether state Ohio may regularly go red.
Since 1992, the percentage of states carried has been in the range of 52 to 64 percent. From that, no winner carried more than 8 of the Top 10. That happened twice: Bill Clinton, with re-election, in 1996; Barack Obama, with his first election, in 2008.
In that time frame of 1992 to 2016, only Republican George W. Bush won with less than half of the Top 10 populous states. He carried four: Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Georgia. (North Carolina did not rank Top 10. It was at No. 11. New Jersey was still a Top 10 populous state.)
When it comes to percentage-points margins, let’s look at the best-performed states, for 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama and 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump, and rank them.
* * * 2008 DEMOCRATIC PICKUP—BARACK OBAMA * * *
1. New York — D+26.86
2. Illinois — D+25.10
3. California — D+24.02
4. Michigan — D+16.44
5. New Jersey — D+15.53
6. Pennsylvania — D+10.31
[U.S. Popular Vote: D+7.26]
7. Ohio (pickup) — D+4.59
8. Florida (pickup) — D+2.81
9. Georgia — R+5.20
10. Texas — R+11.76
* * * 2016 REPUBLICAN PICKUP—DONALD TRUMP * * *
1. Texas — R+8.98
2. Ohio (pickup) — R+8.07
3. Georgia — R+5.10
4. North Carolina — R+3.66
[Adjusted popular-vote margin: +2]
5. Florida (pickup) — R+1.19
6. Pennsylvania (pickup) — R+0.72
7. Michigan (pickup) — R+0.22
8. Illinois — D+16.89
9. New York — D+22.49
10. California —D+29.99
I adjusted the margin on Trump for this reason: The previous two party switches for the presidency—2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush and 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama—saw them gain pretty much +1 state for each percentage point nationally shifted (from the previous election cycle) in their direction.
In 2000, George W. Bush gained +11 states with a national 1996-to-2000 shift of R+8.00. So, Bush flipped an average of +1.37 states with each percentage point nationally shifted in his (and the Republicans’) direction.
In 2008, Barack Obama gained +9 states, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, with a national 2004-to-2008 shift of D+9.72. So, Obama flipped an average of +0.92 states with each percentage point nationally shifted in his (and the Democrats’) direction. Since Nebraska #02 was a Democratic pickup, round that “+0.92†off to +1.
Had a 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump won a likewise pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, he would have taken 2012 Mitt Romney’s loss of –3.86 and, since Trump gained +6 states (and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District), he would have won a likewise pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.xx. So, I just went ahead and adjusted his popular-vote margin to +2.
The whole point of my having listed those Top 10 populous states, for where they came in for the last two winners of separate political parties [Obama and Trump], is to understand where they came in—and to get a sense of possible future trends (as indicated below).
Since Ronald, and a number of people, are looking at Texas as flippable for the next time the White House party switches from Republican to Democratic, I consider a number of things: 1. How many states get carried? (Will it still be in the range of 26 to 32 states, the pattern since 1992, in which a winner carries between 52 to 64 percent of the nation’s states?); 2. Is the pattern going to finally break? (Are we going to get a winner who carries 40 states? Meaning, 80 percent or above of this nation’s states. If so, that would be not a net gain of +1 state for each percentage point nationally shifted but more like +1.5 to +2 states gained. In presidential elections switching the White House party, national margin shifts tend to be closer to +10 percentage points.)
If the United States presidential election of 2020 ends up a Democratic pickup, and among the flipped states would be Texas, it is not going to turn “blue†without the top bellwether states of 2016 and 2020—which include Top 10s Pennsylvania and Michigan (to go along with non-Top 10 Wisconsin)—flipping as well. And if Texas flips, so too will Georgia and North Carolina. It is tough to imagine Texas flipping without Ohio. But, what can make that happen is if the Democratic pickup winner gains +9 states, leaving Ohio a narrow Republican hold. What could cause a 40-state landslide, to include all of the Top 10 populous states, is the right candidate—and I mean someone who is not a party establishment candidate—who goes after a 40-state landslide and strikes in just about every geographic region. (Frankly, if a Democrat wins on at that level, even Alaska would flip. That state is no longer routinely among the Republicans’ ten best.)
If the United States presidential election of 2020 ends up a Republican hold, those carried 7 for 2016’s Donald Trump—which include Pennsylvania and Michigan—will carry for his re-election. He would take his actual popular-vote loss of –2.09 and gain. He can get re-elected losing an extra point—meaning he would still hold 2016 tipping point state Wisconsin—but that likely will not play out. He would likely gain. And if that happens, that means the Democrats will not flip the presidency again until 2024. By then, we could get Top 10 populous states ranking which looks like this:
* * * 2024 DEMOCRATIC PICKUP * * *
1. California
2. New York or Illinois
3. Illinois or New York
4. North Carolina (pickup)
5. Florida or Georgia (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote: one point less than No. 5.]
6. Georgia or Florida (pickup)
7. Texas (pickup)
8. Michigan — a narrow Democratic pickup or a narrow Republican hold if the range of carried states are still 26 to 32 (52 to 64 percent)
9. Pennsylvania — at least a half-point more Republican than Michigan; flips if a pickup-winning Democrat carries at least 40 states
10. Ohio — between three to six points more Republican than Pennsylvania
Conclusion: Texas is turning purple.
Again, D, you have explained in a brilliant fashion all of the potential changes in 2020 and beyond!
Thanks so much! 🙂
Tweedledumb wants to cut Medicare and Medicaid to pay for his f-ing wall.
https://thinkprogress.org/trumps-2020-budget-takes-aim-at-the-poor-with-700-billion-cut-to-medicaid-60de03d3ac72/
I hear that Stacey Abrams is thinking about running for president in 2020.
Princess Leia,
There was also speculation about whether Stacy Abrams would run for U.S. Senate from Georgia.
From the list I presented, and that Top 10 populous states North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas are trending away from the Republicans are poised to become Democratic pickups more certainly in 2024—but still flippable in 2020 (if that is the year Ds win back the White House; with Texas, that is a little less so than the other two)—I think more one thing more should be considered: All those states have both U.S. Senate seats in the Republican column. We are likely to see that also change. That would create the opportunity to flip U.S. Senate seats from Republican to Democratic. And with Florida, the Top 10 populous state most likely to remain a bellwether for a few more consecutive elections (I’m thinking the next five of the 2020s and 2030s), at some point one of its two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats will flip Democratic. (I would love for Marco Rubio to get unseated. That would be more likely if the Republicans hold the presidency in 2020 and Rubio loses his bid for re-election in the midterm election of 2022.)
D, you must be prophetic, LOL, as my entry for today, about to be posted, is on Florida! 🙂
Ronald writes, “D, you must be prophetic, LOL, as my entry for today, about to be posted, is on Florida!â€
The topic on Texas naturally leads to including Florida—to go along with North Carolina and Georgia—becuase of trends including some voting realignments.
I responded to your thread on Florida, from March 12, 2019, but it did not go into effect right away. I use Apple devices. Sometimes it happens from my iPad or iPhone but not my iMac. I am not sure if that makes sense; it can be a moderator setting on WordPress; but, I have noticed it. (My response to your Florida thread came from my iMac.)
Beto is in now.
Sounds like Biden will be announcing in a few weeks.