America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.
This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.
The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.
This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.
Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.
If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.
If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.
Replace in that Top 10 Julian Castro with Tulsi Gabbard.
Speaking of which…the U.S. Rep. from Hawaii #02 reached receiving the 65,000 individual contributions for the debates.
Here is a video:
https://youtu.be/7OFJe56kgi4
Thanks, D, for this video.
IF I was listing the top 12, I would list Gabbard and Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington, who is very big on Global Warming.
I would NOT underestimate Julian Castro, however.
I would also say I highly doubt either Gabbard or Inslee making the finals after Super Tuesday, but we shall see.
Ronald,
I focused my response from the following: “If one had to guess now who will be the [final ten], they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.â€
I don’t think Julian Castro will resonate.
I also get the sense Amy Klobuchar has the same problem—especially from that town hall in which she says she is opposed to Medicare for All and free college tuition, which are key issues for Democratic voters; especially young people.
I am not weighing in yet on Jay Inslee. But, I do get the sense both Kirsten Gillibrand and Cory Booker may fade faster than estimated.
Tulsi Gabbard will stand out more because of her positions on wars. (The establishment smearing her says a lot.)
Who may also resonate is Andrew Yang, for some extent of thinking outside the box with the example of a basic income.
Now, a part of this is Top 10.
I don’t think these 20-plus candidates are about each one potentially winning the primary or caucus if his or her home state. No. (A lot of people have their suspicions of that.) There are reasons why Iowa and New Hampshire are the first two contests. One reason is they set up the trajectory for how the rest of the primaries will unfold. This is true of both major political parties. After Iowa, and then New Hampshire, there will be a good number of dropouts. When it comes to the final results, it is likely that no more than four (or five) individual candidates will carry one given contest (between the 50 states and District of Columbia and other contests, like American Samoa).
I’m concerned it may be too many running.
You are right, D, as probably five will survive after the first month, or else there will be a deadlocked convention.
The future will reveal whether Yang or Gabbard or Inslee or anyone else is up or down, including Gillibrand and Booker.
Southern Liberal, I am also concerned that there are too many, but there is no way to prevent anyone from announcing for President, so we simply have to have patience!
The DNC is going to be putting out ads telling about Trump’s broken promises.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/04/12/the-dnc-will-focus-on-trumps-broken-promises/
Ronald writes, “You are right, D, as probably five will survive after the first month, or else there will be a deadlocked convention.â€
I took a look at the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries dating back to participation of all 50 states first with the former, in 1976, followed by the latter, in 1980.
I looked at presidential years which switched the political party in the White House. I also looked at presidential election years in which the incumbent U.S. president was term-limited and we had to elect a new president. (The only election cycle, since the 1950s, in which a party won a third consecutive presidential election cycle was with the Republicans in 1988.)
It turns out the Democratic pickup year of 1976, with Jimmy Carter, had the largest number of candidates who won any states and/or contests. There were 7: Jimmy Carter (D–Georgia), of course, as well as: Jerry Brown (D–California), George Wallace (D–Alabama), Mo Udall (D–Arizona), Frank Church (D–Idaho), Henry M. Jackson (D–Washington), and Robert Byrd (D–West Virginia). Each one won his home state.
Coming in second was the 1988 Democrats. There were 5: Eventual nominee Michael Dukakis (D–Massachusetts), Jesse Jackson (D–South Carolina), Al Gore (D–Tennessee), Paul Simon (D–Illinois), and Dick Gephart (D–Missouri). Each one, as well, won his home state.
Winning one’s home state, in the primaries, en route to one’s political party’s presidential nomination, is critical. In a general election, 2016 Donald Trump, as the Republican pickup winner for the presidency, showed you can get elected without your home state. But, in the primaries, Trump certainly carried his home state.
All the competitive primaries elections saw the eventual Republican and Democratic party nominations go to candidates who won their home states. Most of the top runners-up also won their home states. But, not all of them did. Those who came up short were: 1980 George Bush (R–Texas), 1996 Pat Buchanan (R–Virginia), 2000 Bill Bradley (D–New Jersey), and 2012 Rick Santorum (R–Pennsylvania).
If you want to get an idea on who to write-off among those many 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, look first to those who may or will not win his or her home state in the primaries. (Think of the fact that Florida’s Marco Rubio was knocked out of the 2016 Republican primaries once Donald Trump won his home state right out from under him.) That means there will get a good number of candidates to drop off—and drop out.
Here is one more thing: Since 1976, the Democratic presidential pickup years were 1976, 1992, and 2008. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama all have in common one specific state they each won in the primaries and in the general election. That state is Wisconsin. This was the tipping point state of Election 2016. For a ranking of percentage-points margins, states and congressional districts, which carried for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, Trump’s Republican pickup of Wisconsin was his 270th electoral vote. (It was followed by Pennsylvania and Michigan, his 290th and 306th original electoral votes.) While I think Florida is the best bellwether state—that is, for many cycles going; and a trend indicating there will be more to come—the best bellwether state for both 2016 and 2020 is probably going to be Wisconsin (followed closely by Pennsylvania and Michigan).
There could more to mention about the oversaturation of candidates. But, I wanted to note the above points here so people can get a stronger sense of what to anticipate with the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries with respect for how they may unfold.
WOW, D, again you came through with fantastic detail, and I thank you so much for this analysis!