It is clear, with the announcement today officially that Montana Governor Steve Bullock is running for President, making for a total of 22 candidates, that there are simply too many, and that some of them need to give up the fight, and run instead for the US Senate, to bolster the chances of a Democratic take over in 2020.
Without the Senate, any Democratic President will face the impossibility of accomplishing his or her goals for the nation, both domestically and in foreign affairs.
So some friendly advice as follows:
Steve Bullock of Montana, run for the US Senate, and since you have been a popular Governor for two terms, spend your time on helping the Democrats gain the Senate majority and defeat Senator Steve Daines.
John Hickenlooper of Colorado, the same advice for you, run to defeat Cory Gardner, one of the most endangered Republicans.
Beto O’Rourke of Texas, you could really help make the Lone Star State turn “Blue” after your close race against Ted Cruz in 2018. Run to retire John Cornyn.
And Stacey Abrams, who is rumored to be thinking of announcing for President, instead you should run for Senator in Georgia, and defeat David Perdue.
In a scenario in which Donald Trump wins re-election, in 2020, Colorado is likely to carry Democratic at the presidential level because it was 2016 Hillary Clinton’s No. 16 best state (from a carried 20). Virginia, which is Colorado’s best companion state (they have carried the same, except in 1992, since 1948), was Hillary’s No. 15 best state. Both Colorado and Virginia should see their 2020 U.S. Senate elections won by the Democrats. (In Virginia’s case, that would be a Democratic hold for incumbent Mark Warner or, if Warner chose not to seek re-election, his party successor. In other words: retained in the Democratic column no matter with who specifically.) If Trump wins re-election, his margin increase is probably going to be around +3 percentage points—which were the cases with 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush—with a net gain of +2 (perhaps +3) states. Even with achieving this, it would mean 2020 re-elected Trump would still not reach flipping Colorado (or Virginia).
In a scenario in which the 2020 Democratic challenger and nominee unseats Donald Trump, all the states in the 2016 column for Hillary Clinton will hold, likely with each solidifying their levels of Democratic support, and then the net gains in flipped states would be ones which ranked between Nos. 21 to 30 with 2016 Trump’s 30 carried states. (The most obvious are his No. 30 Michigan, his No. 29 Pennsylvania, and his No. 28 and tipping point state Wisconsin; with his No. 27 Florida as well.)
No matter which outcome, the 2020 Democrats should end up successfully flipping the U.S. Senate seat from Colorado. In 2014, Cory Gardner won a Republican pickup, unseating Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, with a margin of +1.94 percentage points. (It was Gardner 48.20% vs. Udall 46.26%.) Remember: Gardner unseated Udall in part because the Republicans, who failed to flip the U.S. Senate in 2010 successfully flipped it in 2014, experienced a midterm election wave going from a U.S. Senate seat count of 45 to 54. These were midterm elections on the watch of the presidency of Democrat Barack Obama.
Regarding the other states:
• Georgia, to flip from Republican to Democrat, is likely going to be based on which party wins at the presidential level. The state is in position to start voting with the winner regularly. 2016 Trump carried the state by +5.10. (In the 2000s, George W. Bush won it, both times, north of +10 percentage points.) Trump did not win the U.S. Popular Vote. It was Democratic +2.09. But had 2016 Trump won a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin likely would have reached +2. (That is because 2012 losing Republican Mitt Romney had a popular-vote margin loss of –3.86. Trump gained +6 states and Maine #02. In presidential pickup years—Republican or Democratic—the applicable party’s pickup winner tends to gain +1 to +1.5 states with each percentage point nationally shifted. Had that normal pattern aligned in 2016, Trump would have gone from Romney’s –3.86 to approximately +2.15 and with a possible mid- to upper- range of +2.xx.) So, in this respect, Georgia was a lot closer to the national margin than some people may have realized. It was actually Hillary Clinton’s No. 27 best state. (Obama, in 2008 and 2012, carried 28 and 26 states. Average number from 1992 to 2016—for winning Republicans and Democrats—were 29 carried states.) Her No. 21 best state was Michigan; No. 22 Pennsylvania; No. 23 Wisconsin (again, the tipping point state); No. 24 Florida; followed by Nebraska #02; No. 25 Arizona; No. 26 North Carolina; and No. 27 Georgia. (Nos. 28 to 30 were Ohio, Texas, and Iowa with Maine #02.) The 2016 margins spread between Arizona and Georgia was only 1.60 percentage points. (Except for 2004, they have been within five points from each other since the 1990s, even when they carried differently from each other in 1992 and 1996.) So, continuing to go forward, Arizona and Georgia are likely to keep carrying the same. So, come to think, that other state—with a special U.S. Senate election scheduled for 2020—is also worth mentioning with respect to this topic.
• Texas is more flippable to the Democrats not if they win back the presidency in 2020 but in 2024. It is on the way. 2020, if that turns out to be the year the Democrats win their pickup of the presidency, will be based on the national margins shift (that is, 2016 to 2020). If 2020 manifests, the Democrats will probably need to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +7 or +8 percentage points to be able to flip and carry Texas. In 2024, that national margin would probably be +5 or +6 to be able to flip and carry Texas. (This is keeping mind 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama won their elections by at least ’92 Clinton’s +5.56 percentage points. Obama, re-elected in 2012 by +3.86, carried 26 states, down from his first-term outcomes of +7.26 and 28 carried states. Texas was Hillary’s No. 29.) As I had previously mentioned: If the range of carried states continues to be 26 to 32, the pattern since 1992, the future map for winning Democrats may see Texas and Ohio flip their statuses: that Ohio goes from bellwether to Republican; that Texas goes from Republican to bellwether.
Montana is a state that is underrated by the Democrats. 2004 re-elected George W. Bush won it by +20.50 points while his popular-vote margin was +2.46. 2008 Barack Obama, with his Democratic pickup of the presidency, had a result of –2.38 for almost flipping Montana. (I estimate the Democrats nowadays need to win the presidency possibly with 32 but more likely with 33 or 34 states to carry Montana.) The state has been willing to not align its U.S. Senate vs. U.S. President carriage to the same party. In other words: There were plenty of occurrences in which Montana carried Republican for U.S. President vs. Democratic for U.S. Senate. (Think of Max Baucus, who was first elected in the midterm elections of 1978. Baucus won his second-term re-election in 1984 while Republican U.S. president Ronald Reagan carried the state along with 48 others with his re-election. Consider 1996, when Baucus won his fourth-term re-election while losing Republican challenger Bob Dole flipped and carried Montana.) What does make this difficult for the 2020 Democrats is that 2016, for the first time in history, saw 100 percent of the states with scheduled U.S. Senate elections carry for the same party at that level along with U.S. President. (In Elections 2004, 2008, and 2012, the rate was closer to 80 percent.) Whether that repeats in 2020, I don’t think that will necessary become the new normal. But, it was something—and it can repeat in 2020—so it is worth keeping in mind.
Thanks once again, D, for your perceptive analysis!