Month: June 2019

Are We Ready For Another “Revolutionary” Change, Beyond Barack Obama?

Ronald 12 Comments

Democrats are faced with a challenge that will determine the Presidential Election of 2020.

Is the nation ready for another “revolutionary” change, beyond Barack Obama?

The nation elected a mixed race African American Senator to the White House eleven years ago, something much more “revolutionary” than electing the first Catholic President John F. Kennedy in 1960.

The question is whether the nation is ready to do any of the following:

Elect the first woman President (Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard)

Elect the first mixed race woman President (Kamala Harris)

Elect the second African American male President (Cory Booker)

Elect the first Latino President (Julian Castro)

Elect the first gay President (Pete Buttigieg)

Elect our first Jewish President (Bernie Sanders, Michael Bennet)

Elect our first Hindu President (Tulsi Gabbard), who was born in the US territory of American Samoa.

Elect our oldest first term President at inauguration (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren)

Elect the first President who will reach 80 years of age in office (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden)

Elect our first sitting Mayor (Pete Buttigieg, Bill de Blasio)

Elect the first sitting Congressman since James A. Garfield in 1880 (Tulsi Gabbard, Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, Eric Swalwell)

Elect a President younger than Theodore Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy (Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton)

Is It Time For A New Generation Of Leadership For The Democrats?

Ronald 11 Comments

After watching both Democratic Presidential debates this week, one has to ask the question:

It is time for a new generation of leadership for the Democrats?

The Democratic Party, historically, has regularly gone for younger candidates for President than the Republicans.

Witness Franklin D. Roosevelt, age 51; Adlai Stevenson, age 52; John F. Kennedy, age 43; Lyndon B. Johnson full term, age 56; Hubert Humphrey, age 57; George McGovern, age 50; Jimmy Carter, age 52; Walter Mondale, age 56; Michael Dukakis, age 56; Bill Clinton, age 46; Al Gore, age 52; Barack Obama, age 47.

Compare this to Dwight D. Eisenhower, age 62; Gerald Ford, 1976, age 63; Ronald Reagan, age 69; George H W Bush, age 64; Bob Dole, age 73; John McCain, age 72; Mitt Romney, age 65; Donald Trump, age 70.

So nominating Bernie Sanders, age 79; Joe Biden, age 78; or Elizabeth Warren, age 71—all of whom would be the oldest first term nominated Presidential candidate—might be the wrong way to go!

Might it NOT be better to nominate, at their ages at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020?

Pete Buttigieg age 39

Tulsi Gabbard age 39

Eric Swalwell age 40

Julian Castro age 46

Beto O’Rourke age 48

Cory Booker age 51

Steve Bullock age 54

Kirsten Gillibrand age 54

Kamala Harris age 56

Amy Klobuchar age 60

The Second Night’s Democratic Debate: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg The Stars, But Eric Swalwell And Marianne Williamson Gained Notice

Ronald 39 Comments

The second night’s Democratic Party debate has two clear winners—Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.

But Eric Swalwell and author Marianne Williamson also impressed this author and blogger, although no one in reality would think that Williamson would have any chance to win the nomination.

Joe Biden’s dominance is no longer such, and it could be a sign of troubles ahead, as his performance was lackluster, while not eliminating him, but a lot of homework is ahead if he is to keep his lead in the polls.

Bernie Sanders came across as strong in his views, but one still has to wonder how his ideas can be seen as pragmatic and possible, were he to be elected, which seems doubtful.

The remainder of the list—John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Andrew Yang—did not come across well to this observer.

So at this point, while nothing is final, one would think the true competitors are, besides Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, the following in no special order:

Elizabeth Warren

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Cory Booker

Eric Swalwell

We are far from knowing who will be the nominees of the Democratic Party, however, and the people will decide in the caucuses and primaries beginning about seven months from now.

The Best Performances In The First Debate: Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee

Ronald Leave a comment

Last night’s first Democratic debate saw some definite winners:

Julian Castro

Elizabeth Warren

Jay Inslee

The biggest winner was former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who came across very strongly in competition with fellow Texas and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke on immigration and in his overall performance. He is someone that this author and blogger has been impressed with for a long time, and realize he was on the short list for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and might have made the difference in bringing out more Latino votes, had he been on the ticket. I think he can be considered now a major player, number 6 on the list, with the likelihood that funding and poll numbers will increase dramatically.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the only major player in this first debate, also came across strongly, and very principled, but might have hurt herself by her moving closer to Bernie Sanders in competition for the far Left of the Democratic Party.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee also impressed, with his strong stand on climate change, and his overall background record as an outstanding Governor, and his funding and poll numbers may also increase dramatically. And the Pacific Northwest deserves attention for the national ticket.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also improved their image, but not to the extent of Castro and Inslee.

Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, much more moderate, also deserves some more respect and attention, but it will not be easy for him to gain traction as much as the five mentioned above.

The remaining four–Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney—seem to be left behind as this author and blogger sees it.

Clearly, there are many different ways to look at any debate, and there will be plenty of analysis and evaluation in many different directions.

But at this point, I would say Julian Castro will soon join Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg as the top six of all.

We shall see soon whether any of the other six debating tonight join that group as a serious contender.

The Second Debate Mix: What To Expect

Ronald 19 Comments

The second Democratic Presidential debate will take place on Thursday, June 27 from 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.

It includes the following ten candidates:

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Kirsten Gillibrand

Michael Bennet

Marianne Williamson

Eric Swalwell

John Hickenlooper

Andrew Yang

The group includes the former Vice President and US Senator; four other US Senators; a member of the House of Representatives; a Mayor; a former Governor; and two independent, out of government candidates.

This debate has more of the so called “heavyweights”—Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris—with the other six candidates seen as much weaker in likelihood of long term survival.

Joe Biden must defend himself as the clear front runner, and avoid any more gaffes, after some controversial statements about his past ability to cross the aisle and work with past racial segregationists, as well as his continued habit of touching and hugging women and children, violating their personal space. He could be harmed by a poor performance, but one must remember how good he was in debates in 2008, and against Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan in Vice Presidential debates in 2008 and 2012.

Bernie Sanders will come across strongly, but has many concerned that he cannot carry the nation in the upcoming Presidential election, with the fact that he embraces the word “Socialist”, which can be abused by Trump and the Republicans against him. He will be engaged in major combat with Biden for sure, as Sanders attempts to overtake him in future polls and fundraising.

Pete Buttigieg has been involved in a major crisis as South Bend, Indiana Mayor, with the recent murder of a black man by city police, and he is under attack for the racial troubles involving the law enforcement community. He should do well in the debate, but can he overcome the massive lead of Biden and Sanders over the rest of the contenders, is the question.

Kamala Harris should come on strong as well, but will need to clarify her stand on the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which she compared months ago to the Ku Klux Klan. The assumption is that she will continue to flourish and possibly grow in support.

Some people think Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang, outsiders who clearly have great ideas and intellect, might shine, but somehow, this author and blogger does not see it succeeding.

Of the remaining four, it seems to this author and blogger that Eric Swalwell has the best shot of survival, just a gut feeling, but that Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, and John Hickenlooper have little chance of lasting much beyond the first couple of months of the debate season.

My gut feeling is that out of this group that Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, Swalwell, and possibly Williamson and Yang will survive to go on for another day.

This would make the 20 candidates diminish to 12—-and one can say only possibly Steve Bullock, Montana Governor, who was not allowed in the first set of debates, might still have a shot of those few who are not in this debate, leaving Seth Moulton, Congressman from Massachusetts, and the new announced candidate, former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak, out in the cold.

So expect out of 23 candidates, 13 will make it to the future debates.

The First Debate Mix: What To Expect

Ronald 19 Comments

The first debate among Democratic Presidential candidates takes place on Wednesday June 26 at 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.

It includes the following ten candidates:

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O’Rourke

Coey Booker

Julian Castro

Tulsi Gabbard

Jay Inslee

Amy Klobuchar

Bill de Blasio

John Delaney

Tim Ryan

This is a mix of three US Senators; four former or sitting US House members; a former Mayor and Cabinet Officer; a Mayor; and a Governor.

The one who needs to shine, based on her high poll ratings, and therefore expectations being high, is Elizabeth Warren. This author and blogger would imagine she will do very well in this debate.

Beto O’Rourke has slipped from an early boom, and will decline further if he does not perform well, based on analysis of the news media and public opinion after. My gut feeling is he will disappoint and slip further.

My “favorites” among this group, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar, need to make a great impression, and I tend to think they will benefit by this debate.

Also to be watched is Tim Ryan, who represents the Rust Belt Midwest probably better than even Klobuchar, and while not well known now, seems likely by my gut feeling to do well enough to gain traction.

Jay Inslee, with his emphasis on climate change, should gain some attention, but it seems doubtful that he will make much progress.

Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, and John Delaney are highly doubtful to gain much at all in this debate, in the judgment of this author and scholar, but we shall see.

This is all speculation, and there will be plenty of debate after about the reality of what this debate does to thin the field of candidates.

My projection is that the last five candidates mentioned—Inslee,Booker, Gabbard, de Blasio, and Delaney– will all lose financial and poll support, leaving the other five—Warren, O’Rourke, Castro, Klobuchar, Ryan–still in the race!

Trump Clearly Deranged As He Fumbles From One Threat To Another, Undermining American Democracy

Ronald 3 Comments

Donald Trump has threatened imminent war with Iran in the past week.

Donald Trump has threatened massive tariffs on Mexican goods in the past two weeks.

Donald Trump has threatened massive waves of immigration raids and mass deportations in the past few days.

On each of these threats, he has backed off.

No one can predict the change in moods of Donald Trump from one day to another, and his lies have multiplied to such an extent that no one knows whether he has any concept of reality.

Trump is clearly deranged as he fumbles from one threat to another, undermining American democracy and international stability.

And Mike Pence gives us no optimism, as he clearly has no willingness to challenge any of the inconsistencies of Trump, seeing himself as the heir apparent to Trump.

The domestic and foreign crises that America faces are massive, and now we face the donnybrook that is likely among Democratic Presidential contenders, who will begin to split and divide amongst themselves starting on Wednesday and Thursday nights in Miami.

It is hard to have any optimism, as this blogger and author returns from two weeks of living in ignorance, and now realizing how the situation facing all of us looks worse than ever!

Back From Wonderful Vacation In London And Paris With My Older Son, And Ready To Resume Regular Commentary On American Politics, Government, And History

Ronald 6 Comments

I am happy to announce that I have returned from a wonderful vacation in London and Paris with my older son, and am ready to resume regular commentary on American Politics, Government, and History.

I had never traveled overseas since my younger son was Bar Mitzvahed in 1996 in Israel, but my older son has done a lot of travel in Europe, some for work purposes, and also for vacations. He wanted to treat me to an all expenses paid trip to my two favorite European nations, the United Kingdom and France, to honor me for Fathers Day, and for his 40th birthday, with him being born on that day in 1979.

We saw all of the historic and cultural sites I had always wanted to visit, and it enriched my historical and cultural knowledge, and increased the bonding I have for my older son, but with equal feelings for my younger son as well. This was a trip of just the two of us, since we had not spent much time together over the past decade since he moved to the Washington DC area, and myself continuing to reside in South Florida.

I was totally out of touch for the two weeks in regards to the news, and only now am catching up on the events, including the danger of war with Iran; the resignation of White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders; the threat to have mass deportation of undocumented immigrants by Immigration and Customs Enforcement; the usual maniacal behavior and utterances of Donald Trump; and the preparations for the first Democratic Presidential debates in Miami this coming Wednesday and Thursday, June 26-27, with Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg not having the best fortune in this past week, and Elizabeth Warren seemingly surging for now, while others are hoping for a breakthrough as a result of these two nights of debates.

I plan to comment daily on those events and trends that seem worthy of the most attention, and I am glad to invite my readers to return to a daily interaction, although while visiting Washington DC in two weeks from now for tourism and family, it is possible I might miss a day or two as a result.

Thanks, everyone, for your patience, as I took the most wonderful and enriching trip imaginable in the past two weeks.

Two Week Hiatus From Commentary, Will Return On June 24 Before Democratic Presidential Debates Begin

Ronald 5 Comments

This blogger and scholar will be taking a two week hiatus from commentary, returning shortly before the Democratic Presidential debates in Miami, Florida.

This will be the longest break in commentary, as for many years, no more than one or two days has passed without some posting, and even that occurring rarely.

So to my readers, tune in the week of June 24.

The State Of The Democratic Presidential Race Before The First Debates At The End Of June

Ronald 19 Comments

We are about two and a half weeks before the first Democratic Presidential debates, which will be held in Miami, Florida on June 26 and 27, and broadcast on MSNBC.

With 23 candidates, and only 20 scheduled to make it to the debates, based on public opinion polls and financial contributions, how do things stand at this point?

Joe Biden is comfortably ahead but is starting to make blunders and causing criticism to begin at his whole approach to his campaign, acting as if he does not have a major challenge, but that attitude will change quickly on the debate stage.

And if one looks at history, the front runner never ends up as the nominee in any Presidential competition.

So who seems to be charging ahead to challenge Joe Biden?

Bernie Sanders has been upended by Elizabeth Warren for the time being, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to be a sensation in Town Hall debates.

Kamala Harris is also looking in good shape at this time.

On the other hand, Seth Moulton and Steve Bullock, late announcing as part of the race, may both fail to make the debate stage, while non politicians Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang are certain to be there, and one wonders if they will have any impact.

Others, such as Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, and Kirsten Gillibrand are waiting hopefully for a big improvement in their fortunes at the end of June.

One thing is certain: A large number of the candidates will not survive the summer as serious contenders, as the first debate, and the second one in Detroit, Michigan, at the end of July, will cut down the competition, likely by one third to one half of the 23 contenders at the beginning of this competition.