Public opinion polls have been notoriously inaccurate in the third year of a Presidential term in who would be the Presidential nominees of major parties the following year.
In 2003, Vermont Governor Howard Dean was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but John Kerry ended up as the nominee in 2004.
In 2007, New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but Barack Obama ended up as the nominee in 2008.
In 2007, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but John McCain ended up as the nominee in 2008.
In 2011, Herman Cain was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Mitt Romney ended up as the nominee in 2012.
In 2015, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Donald Trump ended up as the nominee in 2016.
Beyond these examples, in the third year of many Presidential terms, who could have known that the next President would be someone not seriously considered at that time to have a chance to be elected.
Witness John F. Kennedy in 1959; Richard Nixon in 1967; Jimmy Carter in 1975; Ronald Reagan in 1979; Bill Clinton in 1991; Barack Obama in 2007; and Donald Trump in 2015.
Also add the following: Abraham Lincoln in 1859; Woodrow Wilson in 1911; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1931; and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1951.
So, to assume that Joe Biden, currently ahead in all polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, will be the nominee is quite a gamble, based upon history.
Ronald writes, “So, to assume that Joe Biden, currently ahead in all polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, will be the nominee is quite a gamble, based upon history.“
A 2020 Democratic presidential nomination for Joe Biden would result in a Republican hold, with re-election, specifically for Donald Trump.
Three reasons which stand out:
1. No member of Congress who voted for the wars in Vietnam or Iraq was later elected president of the United States.
2. No former U.S. vice president unseated an incumbent U.S. president.
3. The Democrats will not win back the presidency of the United States without a nominee who is convincingly supportive and determined to deliver Medicare for All (which polls 85 percent support from self-identified Democrats, an outright majority 52 percent from self-identified Republicans, and 70 percent overall).
Still hard for me to decide. I’m looking at fresh faces, such as Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete, etc.