The State Of The Democratic Presidential Race Before The First Debates At The End Of June

Ronald 19 Comments

We are about two and a half weeks before the first Democratic Presidential debates, which will be held in Miami, Florida on June 26 and 27, and broadcast on MSNBC.

With 23 candidates, and only 20 scheduled to make it to the debates, based on public opinion polls and financial contributions, how do things stand at this point?

Joe Biden is comfortably ahead but is starting to make blunders and causing criticism to begin at his whole approach to his campaign, acting as if he does not have a major challenge, but that attitude will change quickly on the debate stage.

And if one looks at history, the front runner never ends up as the nominee in any Presidential competition.

So who seems to be charging ahead to challenge Joe Biden?

Bernie Sanders has been upended by Elizabeth Warren for the time being, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to be a sensation in Town Hall debates.

Kamala Harris is also looking in good shape at this time.

On the other hand, Seth Moulton and Steve Bullock, late announcing as part of the race, may both fail to make the debate stage, while non politicians Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang are certain to be there, and one wonders if they will have any impact.

Others, such as Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, and Kirsten Gillibrand are waiting hopefully for a big improvement in their fortunes at the end of June.

One thing is certain: A large number of the candidates will not survive the summer as serious contenders, as the first debate, and the second one in Detroit, Michigan, at the end of July, will cut down the competition, likely by one third to one half of the 23 contenders at the beginning of this competition.

19 comments on “The State Of The Democratic Presidential Race Before The First Debates At The End Of June”

  1. D June 8, 2019 10:00 am

    Some observations concerning the 2020 presidential primaries:

    On the Republican side, incumbent 45th U.S. president Donald Trump is in position to easily win re-nomination. His party approval, from polls, is approximately 90 percent.

    Since all 50 states have been participating with voting in presidential primaries—for the Democrats, it was 1976; for the Republicans, it was 1980—there have been two incumbent U.S. presidents who became unseated. They both came from separate parties. And they both saw at least 20 percent party support reduced and cast for a primaries challenger.

    • In 1980, Democratic incumbent U.S. president Jimmy Carter was re-nominated with 51.1 percent. Rival Ted Kennedy received 37.6 percent.

    • In 1992, Republican incumbent U.S. president George Bush was re-nominated with 72.8 percent. Rival Pat Buchanan received 23.0 percent.

    For all those U.S. presidents, during this period, who won re-elections to a second term, they received approximately (or even above) 90 percent in party support for re-nomination.

    • 1984 Republican incumbent U.S. president Ronald Reagan was re-nominated with 98.8 percent.

    • 1996 Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton was re-nominated with 89.0 percent.

    • 2004 Republican incumbent U.S. president George W. Bush was re-nominated with 98.1 percent.

    • 2012 Democratic incumbent U.S. president Barack Obama was re-nominated with 88.9 percent.

    Why is this important? In general elections, in which the two-party vote
    combines in the area of 97 to 99 percent (it was considerably less so in 1980, 1992 and 1996, and it was almost 94 percent in 2016), Republicans and Democrats receive between 88 to 93 percent in same-party vote. To finish lower than 88 percent, in an election in which there was a range of 97 to 99 percent for the two-party vote, means likely loss.

    For the year 2020, with a United States presidential election with a Republican incumbent U.S. president, the question (which cannot factually be answered with this post here on June 8, 2019) is this: Will 2020 become a Republican hold or a Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States?

    The party approval rating suggests Trump is in a fairly good position for re-election. But, from numerous polls, I get the sense it is wise to rate the race, right now, as a tossup. The 1980 to 2016 primaries, and giving those were the years of their general elections, was a period of 36 years and 10 election cycles. They represent a lot of years in the life of any individual. (I was 9 in 1980. I was 45 in 2016.) But, I would prefer a longer period of history—for all 50 states participating in the primaries—to use as a guide for whether that 90 percent or better in party approval speaks more clearly to re-election. If Trump does get unseated, I have already mentioned who I think has the ability. What also needs to be considered is how the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries would play out for that nominee with respect for the earliest part of the calendar.

    It would not be good to win the first two contests—both Iowa and New Hampshire—because of a well-established pattern.

    Starting in 1980, every time the White House switched parties, the Republican or Democratic presidential pickup winner’s first nomination was won with winning not both Iowa and New Hampshire. It was, in almost every example, winning in one of those two states.

    For 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush, he won in Iowa but not New Hampshire. For 1980 and 2016 Republican pickup winners Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, they prevailed in New Hampshire but not Iowa. The 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama won in Iowa but not New Hampshire. For 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton, there was at least one twist. Iowa was the home state of candidate Tom Harkin. That state was pretty much conceded by others seeking the party’s nomination. (Harkin won Iowa with more than 75 percent.) In New Hampshire, Clinton finished in second. Between the two states, Clinton came a lot closer to winning New Hampshire and losing in Iowa. (Paul Tsongas, who died at age 55 on January 18, 1997, prevailed in New Hampshire by +8.42 percentage points. Given his fate, it may have been for the best that Tsongas did not win the nomination.)

    When it came to the last two losing Republican challengers, who failed to unseat Democratic incumbent U.S. presidents, 1996 Bob Dole won in Iowa but not New Hampshire, and 2012 Mitt Romney won in New Hampshire but not Iowa. On the Democratic side, 1984 Walter Mondale won in Iowa but not New Hampshire, but 2004 John Kerry won in both. And that is what I will address next.

    In two consecutive election cycles, 2000 and 2004, the ones which were Republican victories at the presidential level for George W. Bush, losing Democratic nominees Al Gore and John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Gore won all 50 states as he received 75.4 percent to the 21.0 percent for Bill Bradley. Kerry won 46 states as he received 61.0 percent to the 19.4 percent for top runner-up John Edwards. (In the states count, Edwards won two: his home state North Carolina and neighboring South Carolina. Also on the map, Howard Dean won his home state Vermont, and Wesley Clark of Oklahoma won Arkansas. Reminder: All party nominees won in the primaries their respective home state. For any candidate who failed to carry his or her home state in the primaries…well, that was a contributing factor explaining why that individual did not win his or her party’s nomination.)

    The point is this: In a presidential election in which one’s preferred party prevails with party-flipping the White House—whether it is a term-limited year for an incumbent U.S. president or that incumbent U.S. president gets unseated—it is not a good to see a Republican or Democratic presidential pickup winner not well-challenged in the primaries. A lot of people have said they want no such thing. This is not because they don’t want a contest. They feel a lengthy period can become too stressful. But, the history shows they should be wanting to see the opposite.

    I will not predict, at this time, who will end up the 2020 Democratic nominee for president of the United States. But, I mention all this because I think this past history is worth keeping in mind as we continue to move toward and into the year 2020.

  2. Ronald June 8, 2019 10:29 am

    Wonderful analysis and detail, and I was planning at some point to discuss Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary history, and will do so eventually.

    Thanks, D, as always!

  9. Pragmatic Progressive June 16, 2019 1:03 pm

    This is why Mitch McConnell needs to be taken out of power. He blocks legislation that is helpful, such as efforts to limit dark money in politics, net neutrality, background checks for all gun purchases, protections for Dreamers, paycheck fairness, the Violence Against Women Act, etc.

    https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/06/14/mcconnells-legislative-graveyard/

  11. Former Republican June 17, 2019 4:33 pm

    Trump is so mad about his general election matchup polling numbers being bad that he fired his pollsters over the weekend.

  13. Former Republican June 18, 2019 4:45 pm

    I agree with those polled. The goal is universal healthcare and there are various pathways towards that goal, not just one single pathway only.

    Another thing, even if we get Medicare For All, the biggest obstacle facing that, as Pragmatic pointed out, is Mitch McConnell, if he is still in charge of the Senate. He’s blocking legislation that the Democrats are coming up with. The latest thing he’s blocking is funding for 9/11 responders who are suffering from cancer. Winning back the Senate is going to be just as important as winning back the White House.

  15. Pragmatic Progressive June 19, 2019 12:43 pm

    Junior is a chip off the old block. Mocking Biden for wanting to find a cure for cancer.

  17. Rational Lefty June 20, 2019 12:14 pm

    Iran shot down a drone today. Sounds like they’re provoking Trump to start a war.

  19. Former Republican June 21, 2019 3:14 pm

    This brouhaha with Iran this week shows why Trump is not mentally fit to be Commander In Chief.

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