The first debate among Democratic Presidential candidates takes place on Wednesday June 26 at 9-11 pm on NBC and MSNBC.
It includes the following ten candidates:
Elizabeth Warren
Beto O’Rourke
Coey Booker
Julian Castro
Tulsi Gabbard
Jay Inslee
Amy Klobuchar
Bill de Blasio
John Delaney
Tim Ryan
This is a mix of three US Senators; four former or sitting US House members; a former Mayor and Cabinet Officer; a Mayor; and a Governor.
The one who needs to shine, based on her high poll ratings, and therefore expectations being high, is Elizabeth Warren. This author and blogger would imagine she will do very well in this debate.
Beto O’Rourke has slipped from an early boom, and will decline further if he does not perform well, based on analysis of the news media and public opinion after. My gut feeling is he will disappoint and slip further.
My “favorites” among this group, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar, need to make a great impression, and I tend to think they will benefit by this debate.
Also to be watched is Tim Ryan, who represents the Rust Belt Midwest probably better than even Klobuchar, and while not well known now, seems likely by my gut feeling to do well enough to gain traction.
Jay Inslee, with his emphasis on climate change, should gain some attention, but it seems doubtful that he will make much progress.
Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill de Blasio, and John Delaney are highly doubtful to gain much at all in this debate, in the judgment of this author and scholar, but we shall see.
This is all speculation, and there will be plenty of debate after about the reality of what this debate does to thin the field of candidates.
My projection is that the last five candidates mentioned—Inslee,Booker, Gabbard, de Blasio, and Delaney– will all lose financial and poll support, leaving the other five—Warren, O’Rourke, Castro, Klobuchar, Ryan–still in the race!