With 16 months until the Presidential Election of 2020, the election is settled in 35 states, and the remaining 15 states are in contention, and will decide the Electoral College and the winner of the Presidency.
8 states were Republican last time, but are, in theory, in contention:
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Michigan
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
Additionally, Nebraska is Republican, but allows split electoral votes since 1992, and in 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including Omaha and its suburbs, is in contention.
The Democrats won 5 states that are, in theory, in contention:
Colorado
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia.
Additionally, Maine is Democratic, but allows split electoral votes since 1972, and Donald Trump won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas, is in contention.
So both Nebraska and Maine have the potential to see one electoral vote go to the loser of the state, in the statewide race.
If the Hispanic-Latino vote can be magnified for the Democrats, it gives them the chance to win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
The close Democratic majorities in their five states in contention—Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia—give the Republicans the opportunity to pick up electoral votes there.
It seems clear at this time that when and if the Hispanic-Latino vote increases enough for the Democrats, likely by 2024 and 2028, and with increased electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas assured after the 2020 Census, then the Democrats could have a lock on the Presidency for the long term, even if the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin become more Republican, and even if Minnesota and Virginia were to become more competitive for the Republicans. And Colorado and Nevada, with increased Hispanic-Latino influence over the next decade, would be more assuredly Democratic as well.
Even Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nebraska would matter far less, as well as Ohio, which now looks out of contention for the Democrats at present.
Thank you, for this blog entry, Ronald!
Due to addressing more than one matter, I have more than this one comment.
Dating back to at least 1932, when the White House switched parties, the pickup winning Republican or Democrat tended to win an average net gain of +1 to +1.5 (usually closer to +1) states with each percentage point nationally shifted in his direction.
The last two Republican pickup winners, 2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump, did not win likewise pickups of the U.S. Popular Vote. Bush entered 2000 with 1996 losing Republican nominee Bob Dole’s popular-vote margin of –8.51 percentage points and 19 states (for 159 electoral votes). Bush flipped +11 states (combining for +112 electoral votes) to end up with 30 states (for 271 electoral votes). Had Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his margin would have been near +2.50 percentage points. (Bush’s margin was –0.51.) Trump entered 2016 with 2012 posting Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s popular-vote margin of –3.86 percentage points and 24 states (for 206 electoral votes). Trump flipped +6 states and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (which is half that state’s vote; combining for +100 electoral votes) to end up with 30 states (for an original 306 electoral votes). Had Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his margin would have been between +2.15 to +2.64. (Trump’s margin was –2.09.)
In between Bush and Trump was 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama. He entered 2008 with 2004 losing Democratic nominee John Kerry’s popular-vote margin of –2.46 and 19 states (for a mathematical 252 electoral votes). Obama flipped +9 states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (which is one-third that state’s vote; combining for +113 electoral votes). Obama prevailed on both counts—U.S. Popular Vote and Electoral College—with 28 states, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, District of Columbia, and 365 electoral votes. And his popular-vote margin went from Kerry’s –2.46 to +7.26, a national 2004-to-2008 shift of +9.72. Since he flipped +9 states, and Nebraska #02, that aligned with the average net gain of +1 state for each percentage point nationally shifted.
I am anticipating this will play the next time the presidency flips from the party which currently has the White House, the Republican Party, to the opposition party, the Democratic Party. But, just in case it happens in 2020 (rather than waiting for 2024), I adjust the 2016 popular-vote margin to work from not Hillary Clinton’s +2.09 but to –2.15 to –2.64. I figure the 2020 Democrats, if they flip the presidency, and unseat Republican incumbent Donald Trump, will win the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +4 percentage points.
I can explain further.

Since 1992, the range of carried states by winning Republicans and Democrats have numbered between 26 and 32. The average, in the seven elections of 1992 to 2016, have been 29 carried states.
When I look at presidential polls, for general elections, I look at the whole-number estimate in the U.S. Popular Vote to get an idea how many states that Republican or Democrat would carry.
Since the 1990s, Republican presidents George Bush and Donald Trump won an average of 9 (Bush) and 10 (Trump) electoral votes per carried state while Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won an average of 12 electoral votes per carried state. For Clinton, he averaged 11 (in 1992) and 12 (in 1996) electoral votes per carried state. For Obama, he averaged 13 (in 2008) and 12 (in 2012) electoral votes per carried state.
If a presidential winner carried all 50 states, plus District of Columbia, he would average 10.76 electoral votes per carried state. So, in this most recent and current period, the Republicans and Democrats have structural advantages and disadvantages in the Electoral College. Republicans win with a higher count of states but a lower count of electoral votes. Democrats win with a lower count of states but a higher count of electoral votes. After all, the Republicans’ high mark was Trump’s original 306 electoral votes while the Democrats’ low mark was re-elected Obama’s 332 electoral votes.
I estimate Republicans need 28 states while Democrats need 23 states to win the presidency. But, what is more likely, is that prevailing Republicans will carry at least 30 states while prevailing Democrats will carry at least 26 states. Why? It has to do with particular states, where they come in (taking their margins and ranking them in descending order of all which get carried). It also has to do with the historical fact that, from the 58 thus far U.S. presidential elections of 1789 to 2016, only three times did a minority number of state carry: 1824 (John Quincy Adams), 1960 (John Kennedy), and 1976 (Jimmy Carter).
In referencing a formula, to estimate how many states would get carried by a prevailing Republican or Democrat, I take the whole-number margin for the Republican and add +28 while adding +22 for the Democrat. In other words: In a presidential election with the U.S. Popular Vote a margin of +5 points, a Republican would carry 33 states while a Democrat would carry 27 states.
This actually synced with 2000 Bush and 2016 Trump, when adjusting to a normally aligned popular-vote margin to +2, as both carried 30 states. A 2004 re-elected Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 and carried 31 states. This has synced with all winning Democrats, except for 1992 Bill Clinton (whose popular-vote margin was +5.56 with carriage of 32 states), since the 1960s. Here is what played: 1960 Democratic pickup winner John Kennedy won by +0.17 and carried 22 states; 1964 Democratic hold winner Lyndon Johnson won by +22.58 and carried 44 states; 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter won by +2.06 and carried 23 states; 1996 Democratic hold, and re-elected, Bill Clinton won by +8.51 and carried 31 states; 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama won by +7.26 and carried 28 states (plus Nebraska #02); and 2016 Democratic hold, and re-elected, Obama won by +3.86 and carried 26 states.
Why +28 for the Republicans and +22 for the Democrats, for estimating states counts, can be explained as follows: For Republicans, 9 (electoral votes) x 28 (states), with a remainder of +18, reaches 270 electoral votes; for Democrats, 12 (electoral votes) x 22 (states), with a remainder of +6, reaches 270 electoral votes. One can guess Republicans can reach 270 with 27 carried states. But, that party’s winner would have to definitely win 10 electoral votes on average of each carried state; and one can guess Democrats can reach 270 with 21 carried states if, for example, a 2020 Democratic pickup winner carries the 20 states won by 2016 Hillary Clinton, a mathematical 232 electoral votes, and flips just one state, Texas, and its 38 electoral votes. But, while this is feasible, neither is likely to play out.
I would like to United States presidential elections to move past the post-1980s pattern in which a 50s and 60s percentile range of states get carried. (Historical average is 69 percent. That is average of 34 carried states. Elections 1992 to 2016 were an underperformance.) I would like to see 40-state outcomes (meaning, an average of four of every five states get carried). That can come across as a landslide, yes, but it also speaks to a genuine consensus. But, the current structure of electoral politics would have to go through some changes to break the pattern. So, in dealing with the current structure: to win a 40-state landslide, a Republican would need to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +12 percentage points (say, 55 to 43 percent), and a Democrat would need to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +18 percentage points (say, 58 to 40 percent).
(After this comment, I will address what Ronald has mentioned as ones to consider for determining the outcome for the United States presidential election of 2020.)
Ronald has listed 13 states.
I am in agreement with considering 10.
I disagree with 3.
Given the range of carried states, since 1992, has been 26 to 32, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia—which ranked for 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump’s Nos. 34, 35, and 36 best states—are highly unlikely to flip and carry in 2020 for re-electing Trump. (Best-case scenario for him: The same map with no more than three pickups.) I figure he would have to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +8 in order to have flipped and carried all three. The Republicans haven’t won with that level a popular-vote margin since 1988 George Bush. And the 2018 midterm elections further solidified Democratic trends in the three states (details of which I will not go into; not now).
For anticipating how the electoral map will unfold with Election 2020, I replace those three states with Trump’s 2016 Republican pickups of Ohio and Iowa and Hillary Clinton’s Democratic hold of statewide Maine (two of its four electoral votes).
In 2016, the results for U.S. President were: Donald Trump (R–pickup), with 45.93% and 30 states (plus Maine #02), and an original 306 electoral votes; Hillary Clinton (D), with 48.02% and 20 states (plus District of Columbia), and an original 232 electoral votes.
Here is a more organized listing—with my estimate of pecking order—of either scenario for the political party (along with other pertinent information regarding the party’s potential) which will win the United States presidential election of 2020:
* * * * * 2020 REPUBLICAN HOLD: RE-ELECTION FOR DONALD TRUMP * * * * *
NEW HAMPSHIRE
• 2016 Result: Democratic +0.36 | Republican –0.36
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 31
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 31
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +3
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 310
MAINE [statewide]
• 2016 Result: Democratic +2.98 | Republican –2.96
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 33
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 32
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 312
MINNESOTA
• 2016 Result: Democratic +1.51 | Republican –1.51
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 32
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 33
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +5
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 322
* * * * * 2020 DEMOCRATIC PICKUP: CHALLENGER UNSEATS INCUMBENT * * * * *
MICHIGAN
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +0.22 | Democratic –0.22
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 21
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 21
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +3
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 248
PENNSYLVANIA
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +0.72 | Democratic –0.72
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 22
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 22
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +3
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 268
WISCONSIN
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +0.76 | Democratic –0.76
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State (tipping point state): No. 23
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State (tipping point state): No. 23
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 278
FLORIDA
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +1.19 | Democratic –1.19
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 24
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 24
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 307
[NEBRASKA #02]
• 2016 Result: Republican +2.23 | Democratic –2.23
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: —
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: —
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 308
ARIZONA
• 2016 Result: Republican +3.50 | Democratic –3.50
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 25
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 25
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 319
NORTH CAROLINA
• 2016 Result: Republican +3.66 | Democratic –3.66
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 26
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 26
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 334
GEORGIA
• 2016 Result: Republican +5.10 | Democratic –5.10
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 27
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 27
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +5
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 350
IOWA
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +9.41 | Democratic –9.41
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 30
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 28
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +6
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 356
[MAINE #02]
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +10.28 | Democratic –10.28
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: —
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: —
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +6
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 357
TEXAS
• 2016 Result: Republican +8.98 | Democratic –8.98
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 29
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 29
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +7
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 395
OHIO
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +8.07 | Democratic –8.07
• 2016 Party’s Ranked State: No. 28
• 2020 Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 30
• 2020 Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +8
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 413
A quick explanation regarding my estimate on the 2020 Democrats’s state Nos. 28 to 30: If Election 2020 ends up a Republican hold, I think Texas moves past Iowa (and, perhaps voting like it, Maine #02) to be more closely in reach for Election 2024. If the 2020 Democratic nominee unseats Republican incumbent Donald Trump, and carries exactly 28 states, I perceive Iowa (and, with it, Maine #02) flipping just before Texas. When it comes to No. 30 Ohio: I notice that, since the 1990s, winning Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama carried the four Rust Belt states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin along with Ohio while the only Republican to carry all four was Donald Trump. Between the four, the Democrats’ best is Michigan while the Republicans’ best is Ohio. So, what they have in common is the margin +7. That is the margin Clinton and Obama needed from Michigan to also carry Ohio. (1992 and 1996 Clinton carried Michigan by +7.39 and +13.21 points. 2008 and 2012 Obama carried Michigan by +16.44 and +9.46 points.) The inverse is true that Trump needed to carry Ohio by +7 in order to also carry Michigan. (2016 Trump carried Ohio by +8.07 points.) You can understand why I have Ohio gradually trending Republican. I perceive it and Texas trading: Ohio, from bellwether to Republican; Texas, from Republican to bellwether.
One more thing: A 2020 Donald Trump can lose the U.S. Popular Vote by –3, down from his –2.09 from 2016, and surrender Michigan and Pennsylvania but hold Wisconsin and end up with exactly 270 electoral votes. This is feasible. It will depend on how this Rust Belt trio is playing out during 2020. So, this why I think the 2020 Democratic challenger, if succeeding in unseating Trump, would win the U.S. Popular Vote with a margin no less than +4.
Thanks again, D, for your perceptive commentary on the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020.
I will be posting about this more in the near future.