An interesting idea has emerged, as stated by former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke.
He claims that polls show that he would win Texas over Donald Trump in 2020, and that he could, therefore, win the Presidency.
Meanwhile, polls do not show O’Rourke doing well, and his performance in the two debates so far is not inspiring.
But then, the question arises, could former San Antonio Mayor and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, who has performed very well in both debates, also possibly win his home state of Texas, and therefore win the Presidency?
There is no question that IF Texas was to go Democratic, it would insure Donald Trump’s defeat, and transform American politics.
It certainly seems likely that Texas will go eventually “Blue”, but maybe not until 2024 or 2028.
Of course, IF Texas AND Florida were to go “Blue”, with the latter nowhere near as likely, then the Democratic Party will win the Presidency for decades on end!
Julián Castro or Beto O’Rourke—should either of them be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, and that the party wins a pickup of the presidency, and with unseating Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump—would not be the reason why Texas would turn blue.
It would happen because the 2016-to-2020 national shift, in the U.S. Popular Vote, was strong enough to bring in Texas.
I wrote about this in response to Ronald’s “16 Months to Election: 15 States in Contention in Electoral College†(July 20, 2019 @ https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=37159).
In 2000, a Republican pickup year for George W. Bush, Texas was the No. 10 best-performed state (percentage-points margins) for the Republicans. It stayed there in 2004. In 2008, a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Barack Obama, losing Republican John McCain carried Texas as his party’s No. 15 best state. It was there as well for 2012 losing Republican nominee Mitt Romney. In 2016, a Republican pickup year for Donald Trump, Texas lowered to No. 22 for the Republicans. For the Democrats, Texas went from No. 41 to No. 36 to No. 29.
Since 1992, the average number of states carried by presidential winners have been 29. The range has been between 26 to 32.
There is no doubt Texas is the on the way. I estimate the 2020 Democrats will have to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +7 to be able to flip Texas. And if the 2020 Democrats achieve this, it’s not because nominations for either Julián Castro or Beto O’Rourke were necessary to make it possible.