In the midst of the turmoil of the Presidential campaign of 2020, the reality is that Democrats have lost the White vote in every election for the past 40 years, except Bill Clinton in 1996.
IF Democrats gain about 40 percent of the total white vote, mostly from suburban women, college educated men and women, and socially aware whites of both genders, they can win this next election, if the following caveats occur:
Voter Suppression, Gerrymandering, and Russian collusion is able to be controlled, where it does not undermine the will of voters.
African Americans, Latino and Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, and younger voters of both genders turn out to vote in larger numbers than they did in 2016, as compared to 2008 and 2012.
If disappointed far left Progressives of the Bernie Sanders variety agree to overcome their resentment, and come out and vote for a likely moderate progressive candidacy, then victory over Donald Trump is insured.
Of course, having a woman, a minority person, or a gay candidate on the ticket for Vice President would help, meaning Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, or Pete Buttigieg as the running mate, if not the nominee in any of these cases.
Ronald writes, “If Democrats gain about 40 percent of the total white vote…they can win [the 2020 United States presidential election]…â€
That amount would definitely do it.
In 2012, when the two-party vote was 98.16 percent—it was 47.15 percent for losing Republican Mitt Romney and 51.01 percent for re-elected Democratic incumbent Barack Obama—the 44th U.S. president received 39 percent from white voters nationwide.
In 2016, the two-party vote was 93.95 percent. It was 45.93 percent for Republican pickup winner Donald Trump, and 48.02 percent for losing Democrat Hillary Clinton. Hillary received 37 percent from whites nationwide.
The difference, in the margins, was that Romney carried whites by +20 and Trump carried whites by +21.
Part of what helped the 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama and the 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump were national shifts—from the previous election cycle—of racial demographics normally aligned to the opposite party; the incumbent White House party.
In 2004, re-elected Republican incumbent George W. Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 percentage points. It was 50.73 percent for Bush, and 48.27 percent for losing Democratic challenger John Kerry. (They combined for 99.00 percent of the two-party vote.) Bush won whites nationwide by +17 percentage points. That meant Kerry’s margin was –17. In 2008, Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of the presidency with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7.26. (His national shift was +9.72.) Obama lost whites nationwide by –12. That was more than enough to help flip the U.S. Popular Vote.
In 2012, re-elected Democratic incumbent Barack Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 percentage points. Obama won blacks by +87, and he won Hispanics by +44. That meant Romney’s margins were –87 and –44. In 2016, Donald Trump won a Republican pickup of the presidency with U.S. Popular Vote margin of –2.09. (Had Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have been closer to the opposite; his national shift was +1.77, but a historically normal alignment would have seen him increase from +6.00 to +6.50. He flipped six states and a congressional district.) Trump lost blacks by –81, and he lost Hispanics by –38. Even though he did not sufficiently shift enough to flip the U.S. Popular Vote, those racial demographics’ shifts helped created that opportunity.
This is also keeping in mind that, between 2008 and 2016, the size of the vote, for U.S. Popular Vote, have gone through changes. Whites went from 74 (in 2008) to 72 (in 2012) to 70 (in 2016) percent. Hispanics went from 9 (in 2008) to 10 (in 2012) to 11 (in 2016) percent. Asians went from 2 (in 2008) to 3 (in 2012) to 4 (in 2016) percent. (Asians gave 2008, 2012, and 2016 Democrats national margins of +27, +47, and +38 percentage points.)
The Democrats need for blacks to not decrease their size of the U.S. Popular Vote. Their size was 13 (in 2008 and 2012) and 12 (in 2016) percent. So, if 2020 is to become a Democratic pickup of the presidency, it would be necessary to see blacks go back up to at least 13 percent in the size of the U.S. Popular Vote.
If the Democrats flip the presidency in 2020, I would anticipate whites will nationally shift their 2016 margin of Republican +20 down to closer to Republican +15. This would work in conjunction with increasing the 2016-to-2020 margins of blacks (+81 would definitely increase to closer to +90), Hispanics (they would go from +38 to more than +40), and Asians (they would also increase from +38 to more than +40). That would deliver the U.S. Popular Vote considerably beyond the 2016 margin of Democratic +2.09, given the reality is—if Democrats are to flip the presidency in 2020—the party’s U.S. Popular Vote margin will need to be at least +4.
Again, wonderful analysis, D!
I know I can count on you for this, haha! LOL