Five Top Democrats In Presidential Polls All Are Defeating Donald Trump For 2020 Presidential Election

2 comments on “Five Top Democrats In Presidential Polls All Are Defeating Donald Trump For 2020 Presidential Election”

1. 

   D September 1, 2019 10:37 pm

   Ronald writes, “This is good news, but certainly, no one can assume that this scenario will…”

   I am mindful of the voting pattern, since 1992, that the range of carried states has been 26 (a 2012 re-elected Barack Obama) to 32 (a 1992 first-term-elected Bill Clinton). The average has been 29 carried states.

   I mentioned, in a previous comment, that when estimating the states count for a prevailing Republican or Democrat, in relation to the percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote, add +28 for the Republican or +22 for the Democrat. (In other words, +5 either way means a Republican carries 33 states and a Democrat carries 27 states.) Republicans George W. Bush and [first term] Donald Trump averaged 9, 9, and 10 electoral votes per carried state. Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama averaged 11, 12, 13, and 12 electoral votes per carried state. (States count is an advantage for the Republicans. Electoral-vote scores is an advantage for the Democrats.) Bush won re-election in 2004 by +2.46 and carried 31 states. Obama won re-election in 2012 by +3.86 and carried 26 states. The Democrats, with exception of 1992 Clinton, have been on this pattern of an estimated +22 since 1960 John Kennedy.

   To win the presidency, and the fact that only three times did the presidential winner carry less than 50 percent of the nation’s states (1824, 1960, and 1976), I estimate the minimum for a prevailing Democrat will be 2012 Obama’s level.

   What this Quinnipiac University poll’s numbers suggest is that Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump would get unseated by any Democratic nominee specifically mentioned. The low bar for a pickup winning Democrat would a popular-vote margin of +9. This would result in an estimate of at least 31 carried states.

   Had a 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump won a likewise Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have been +2.xx with his 30 carried states and his original 306 electoral votes. (Presidential pickup winners tend to win a net gain of +1 to +1.5—but closer to +1—states on average of each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup winning Republican or Democrat.)

   2016 losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states, plus District of Columbia, and an original 232 electoral votes. That would be the beginning point for a 2020 pickup winning Democrat. So, the following—going in order of where they ranked in 2016 for best-performed states (meaning, within reach for a 2020 pickup winning Democrat)—is suggested for how the map would take shape:

   Pete Buttigieg
   • U.S. Popular Vote margin: +9
   • Estimated/Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote percentages: 54–45
   • 31 states and 422 electoral votes
   • 2020 Democratic pickups: 21. Michigan (cum. 248); 22. Pennsylvania (cum. 268); 23. Wisconsin (cum. 278)—the tipping point state; 24. Florida (cum. 307); — Nebraska #02 (cum. 308); 25. Arizona (cum. 319); 26. North Carolina (cum. 334); 27. Georgia (cum. 350); 28. Ohio (cum. 368); 29. Texas (cum. 406); 30. Iowa (cum. 412); — Maine #02 (cum. 413); 31. South Carolina (cum. 422)

   Kamala Harris
   • U.S. Popular Vote margin: +11
   • Estimated/Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote percentages: 55–44
   • 33 states and 431 electoral votes
   • 2020 Democratic pickups: the prior listing as well as: 32. Alaska (cum. 425) and 33. Mississippi (cum. 431)

   Elizabeth Warren
   • U.S. Popular Vote margin: +12
   • Estimated/Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote percentages: 55–43
   • 34 states and 437 electoral votes
   • 2020 Democratic pickups: the prior listing as well as: 34. Utah (cum. 437)

   Bernie Sanders
   • U.S. Popular Vote margin: +14
   • Estimated/Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote percentages: 56–42
   • 36 states and 458 electoral votes
   • 2020 Democratic pickups: the prior listing as well as: 35. Missouri (cum. 447) and 36. Indiana (cum. 458)

   Joe Biden +16
   • U.S. Popular Vote margin: +16
   • Estimated/Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote percentages: 57–41
   • 38 states and 469 electoral votes
   • 2020 Democratic pickups: the prior listing as well as: 37. Louisiana (cum. 466) and 38. Montana (cum. 469)

   I have it figured that, if a Democrat were to carry 40 states, he/she would need to win a popular-vote margin of +18, for a percentages outcome of 58–40.

   Do I think, with this polling report, this scenario would play out? It isn’t likely. But, it isn’t impossible. I think Donald Trump would have to be to the 2016 and 2020 Republicans what Jimmy Carter was to the 1976 and 1980 Democrats: A party pickup winner—with a 40-year parallel on the timeline—who became severely unpopular (even in his own party) and was disastrously unseated in his efforts to win re-election. That was the last occurrence, in the history of United States presidential elections, in which the White House switched parties in two consecutive election cycles.

2. 

   Ronald September 2, 2019 6:41 am

   Welcome back, D, after your time away.

   Thanks again for your detailed and encouraging comment, which all of us hope will come to fruition, as it would be a true realignment election if it occurred, as you have outlined.

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