Further thought and analysis on the Ohio Presidential debate of Tuesday makes this blogger and scholar believe that two Midwesterners–South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar—come out as the stars of the debate.
Both were very strong in promoting a moderate center left vision of the Democratic Party, which gives the party a better chance of success against Donald Trump.
Being from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.
So if Joe Biden slips, which seems very possible, both offer an equivalent vision of what Biden stands for, rather than the more leftist Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.
There are still three and a half months to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, so despite early indications that Biden, Warren, and Sanders have a dominant position, there is still time for alternatives, and the most likely, clearly, are Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Ronald writes, “ [Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar being] from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.â€
Since 1992, the range of carried states have been between 26 and 32 with the average 29. (Barack Obama, in 2008, flipped and carried Indiana as his No. 27 best of 28 carried states.)
The states Indiana (Hillary’s No. 36 best-performed state in percentage-points margins from 2016) and Missouri (Hillary’s No. 35 best from 2016) have been voting alike in their margins since 2008, a year in which they carried differently (Obama narrowly flipped Indiana by +1.03; John McCain narrowly held Missouri by +0.13) while their margins spread was only 1.16. (Their margins have been tighter since. They are now a pair of electoral companion states.)
The state of Minnesota was in the column for Hillary Clinton. It was her No. 19 of 20 carried states. It is on the way for the Republicans—if Donald Trump doesn’t flip it with re-election in 2020, anticipate it with the next cycle in which the presidency flips from Democratic to Republican—just as the likes of Arizona and Georgia are on the way for the Democrats (if not 2020, with unseating Trump, then a pickup of the presidency in 2024). A gradual trend. But, since after the 1950s, Minnesota has carried for the Democrats in the previous 14 of 15 presidential elections of 1960 to 2016.
For Minneosta, Amy Klobuchar really isn’t a selling point. If the 2020 Democrats flip the presidency, everything in the column for 2016 Hillary Clinton carries—and their 2016-to-2020 margins solidify. This would include Minnesota. It was in the column for Hillary Clinton with a margin of +1.51. She won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.09. But, had 2016 given us a historically, normally aligned outcome popular-vote margin, Donald Trump would have won a likewise Republican pickup on that count by +2.15 to +2.64. So, in that respect, Minnesota voted between 3 to 4 points more Democratic. If the 2020 Democrats flip the presidency, perhaps Minnesota will perform around +3 or +4 in excess of that Democratic pickup winner’s popular-vote margin.
For Indiana, Pete Buttigieg is also not a selling point. Given the Strong Republican status of the state, and it aligning closely with former bellwether Missouri, the Democrats would have to win an old-fashioned 40-state landslide (not experienced since the Republicans from the 1970s and 1980s and Democrat Lyndon Johnson from 1964) to definitely get Indiana (and Missouri) to flip. (At that rate, so would Kansas and statewide Nebraska with Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District.)
Now, when it comes to some neighboring states—Wisconsin and Iowa (Klobuchar) and Michigan and Ohio (Buttigieg)—which were four of the six Republican pickup states for 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump, the likely order for a 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner would be (after Hillary Clinton’s 20 carried states): 21. Michigan; 22. Pennsylvania; 23. Wisconsin (tipping point state from 2016 which may again become that in 2020); 24. Florida; — Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District; 25. Arizona; 26. North Carolina; and 27. Georgia. That would be the estimate for a Democratic pickup winner who wins the U.S. Popular Vote by up to +5 percentage points. Winning with a margin between +6 to +8 involves flipping: Ohio, Texas, and Iowa (with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District). That was the order they came in in 2016. But, I anticipate it may change to: 28. Iowa (with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District); 29. Texas; 30. Ohio. And I am open to the possibility that a tending Texas may become the 2020 Democrats’ No. 28 best state.
Picking a candidate based on that candidate’s home state is not how a lot of people choose a presidential nominee for a general election. To put it bluntly: If you are thinking of picking a candidate based on home state, you are more interested in what you figure is a strategy—and it is not a good one—than in voting the nomination to a candidate who represents you, your preferred political party, and the people of the United States. The electoral map—whether it is an election cycle won by by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party—will be a victorious one no matter which specific states and districts play a role in ending up in the column of a presidential winner.
‘Elijah Cummings, esteemed longtime Baltimore congressman, has died at 68’
By CBS News/Associated Press (10.17.2019 @ 08:00 a.m. ET)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elijah-cummings-esteemed-longtime-baltimore-congressman-died-68-today-2019-10-17/
Representative Elijah Cummings, of Baltimore, died early Thursday at the age of 68, his office said. Cummings passed away at Johns Hopkins Hospital at 2:45 a.m. from “complications concerning longstanding health challenges,†his office said.
Some members of “The Squad” have endorsed Bernie. I agree with 538. It could affect him positively but it could also affect him negatively.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-aoc-and-omar-endorsements-could-help-sanders/
Agreed that it could affect him negatively. If he wins the nomination, the Squad will be featured prominently in attack ads by the Republicans in 2020.
Issues Voters See the Race Differently From Those Who Prioritize Beating Trump
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/issues-voters-see-the-race-differently-from-those-who-prioritize-beating-trump/
Voters prioritizing beating Trump (like us) – Biden is the top choice, followed by Elizabeth Warren, with Sanders in third
Voters prioritizing issues – Sanders is the top choice, followed by Elizabeth Warren, with Biden in third.
Outside of the top tier, Mayor Pete gains with voters who prioritize beating Trump. Amy Klobuchar gains amongst those voters, as well as gains amongst voters who prioritize issues.
Mulvaney admitted quid pro quo today. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/17/1893153/-Mick-Mulvaney-outright-admits-that-Trump-held-up-aid-to-Ukraine-to-get-support-for-conspiracy-theory
Another thing today – Trump is going to hold the G7 at his Doral Resort, violating the emoluments clause.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/g7-summit-trump-golf-course-miami_n_5da89adbe4b034f1d69f0703
Moody’s Analytics has Dumb Dumb Trump winning in 2020. Praying that turns out wrong.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/17/politics/trump-moodys-analytics-2020-election-model/index.html
The Russians may be using bots to promote Tulsi Gabbard on the web, hoping to have her as a third party candidate.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/18/politics/hillary-clinton-tulsi-gabbard/index.html
In 2016, because of the Russian bots, I was suspicious of people attacking Hillary and promoting Trump, Bernie, and Jill Stein. How do we know whether or not someone promoting Tulsi is a bot or not?
Agreed, Leia. That’s definitely a concern, especially as we get more and more closer to the 2020 election.