It is hard to believe that Donald Trump has been in office, disgracing and besmirching the institution of the Presidency, for three years. With one year left to this term, hopefully, we will see next year on this day the end of this nightmare threat to civil order and international stability.
All possible efforts must be made to eradicate this cancer on the office of the Presidency, with commitment by voters and by those in public office to do everything needed to remove this man from the Presidency. We must then work to reverse the horrific damage he has done in so many areas of public policy.
There is no perfect candidate, but the nation must unite around the winner of the Democratic Presidential nomination as the only alternative to the horror of a second term for Trump, as that would create lasting damage to the nation, with little chance of reversal.
This is particularly true in the case of the federal judiciary, as if Trump is able to make the Supreme Court extremist right wing, it will reverberate on the nation in a deleterious manner for the next 20-30 years. It would insure domestic chaos and injustice long term, in a nation becoming rapidly a majority minority by the 2040s.
Endorsing Bernie Sanders
The 2020 Democratic presidential primaries begin in two weeks with the first contest in Iowa scheduled for Monday, February 3, 2020.
I am endorsing Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
I am endorsing Sanders because of his vision, which includes Medicare for All, and for his true progressivism (by U.S. standards) in leadership he has to offer.
The only other 2020 presidential candidate I have considered is Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii. Her vision is bringing an end to the wars. So, my endorsement of Sanders is not without appreciation of Gabbard.
There is no one else seeking the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination who is worthy. I give some credit to Andrew Yang of New York for his unique suggestion of giving $1,000 per month to the citizens.
I have written it before. I will have written it again. The Democrats will not win back the presidency of the United States without a candidate, a progressive, who is truly supportive of and is determined to deliver Medicare for All. The No. 1 person in the race who measures up is Bernie Sanders.
No One Has a Clue Who Will Win the Iowa Caucuses
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/01/20/no-one-has-a-clue-who-will-win-the-iowa-caucuses/
I need to be careful about believing that I can accurately remember anything that happened 16 years ago, but my recollection is that John Kerry unexpectedly won the Iowa caucuses and that many people attributed his victory to a last-minute spat between the camps of Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean that turned off the voters and sent them looking for an alternative.
If that history repeats, the blowup between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren could wind up benefitting one of the other candidates and boosting them beyond what the polls predict. On the other hand, the Gephardt/Dean fight was more of an ideological matter than the dispute over whether or not Sanders once told Warren that a woman cannot beat Trump. A fight between the two leftmost candidates won’t send their supporters in search of a moderate in-between choice because there is no in-between candidate in the race. What it might do is drive down their favorables among non-ideological voters or cause them to lose out on second-choice votes.
In the latter scenario, supporters of Sanders won’t vote for Warren or vice-versa if their candidate fails to meet the minimum threshold in their caucus. In this way, compromise candidates might benefit, but it won’t make much difference if this lost progressive support is spread around.
Two weeks out from the caucuses, about the only thing I’m sure about is that Gephardt and Dean won’t win. As Gabriel Debenedetti writes for New York, the polls are all over the place.
[From the outside, the race for the nomination can look exhaustingly (or maddeningly) stable—Sanders and Joe Biden are nearly exactly where they were in national polling a year ago, before either even entered the race. But the four leading candidates have, in fact, been trading places atop the bewildered first-to-caucus state’s polls for months, most often within the margin of error. The three most recent surveys have seen Biden narrowly leading, with Sanders in second; Sanders barely leading, with Elizabeth Warren in second; and Biden and Sanders tied with Pete Buttigieg, with Warren just behind. The campaigns are in a frenzy, and nobody working on them believes the winner will be clear before Caucus Night…]
Not long ago, Buttigieg was on top in a couple of polls. There is really no information in the polls that can help us determine a clear favorite. The best signal will probably be late movement in the last set of polls, although it doesn’t help Sens. Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren that they have been called for jury duty in the impeachment trial of Donald John Trump. It might not help Joe Biden if the Democrats agree to allow Hunter Biden to testify in the trial in exchange for the testimony of people like John Bolton, who actually have some relevant information to share. Maybe Pete Buttigieg is going to get a lucky break by comparison, but then maybe he’ll suffer because no one will be thinking about him.
Of course, I can’t write about the Iowa caucuses without pointing out that they are a fraud and should be doomed. The best example is from the 2012 Republican caucuses when there were arguably four equally plausible results or interpretations of what happened.
[Thus, you can justifiably say that [Rick] Santorum won Iowa because he had the most votes in the certified count, or that Romney won because he [was the announced winner and] benefited the most from the result, or that Ron Paul won because he actually got almost all the delegates, or that no one won because the party refused to declare a winner.]
In my mind, the person who gets the delegates is the winner, and Ron Paul won the delegates when they were actually assigned at later state and county party meetings. In reality, Romney got the bounce out of winning Iowa and thus was the one whose campaign came out on top. This was unfair to Santorum because when all the dust settled, it looked like he actually got the most votes and should have been the one getting a bounce. Except, some votes were simply missing, and so the party refused to say who won between Romney and Santorum since it wasn’t technically possible to know.
Hopefully, the Democratic results in 2020 will be more orderly and decisive, but the delegates at stake are insignificant compared to the perception that someone won or “exceeded expectations.†And the winner on caucus night is not guaranteed to actually be awarded the most delegates. To assure that, they need to stick in the race and they need to be organized when Iowa Democrats actually meet to award the delegates.
Personally, I think Elizabeth Warren needs Iowa more than the others. If she loses there, I don’t know if she’ll ever win a state. Sanders still looks strong in New Hampshire and Nevada, and Biden looks very formidable in South Carolina. I guess I could make the same argument about Buttigieg, but I’m still having trouble envisioning a road for him regardless of what happens in Iowa. If anyone can shake the world with an upset, it’s Amy Klobuchar. She might even get some juice out of a strong second-place finish.
Other than Tom Steyer topping two percent, the other result that could really change the future of the campaign is a horrible performance by Biden. He doesn’t need to win in Iowa, but a fifth-place finish would be hard to explain.
The First Post-Debate Polls Are In And They’re … Pretty Weird.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-first-post-debate-polls-are-in-and-theyre-pretty-weird/
How Negative Is Sanders Willing to Go?
Apparently, attacking Joe Biden as corrupt went too far.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/01/21/sanders-launches-a-disinformation-campaign-against-biden/
Last week Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren became embroiled in a rift about whether or not he told her that a woman couldn’t win the presidency. Supporters on both sides claimed that the other side had lied about the exchange. We can all leave the resolution about that particular exchange aside, but Sanders affirmed his position when he went on to suggest that being a woman is a “negative.â€
[There you have it: Sanders says that being a woman is a “negative.”
—Nancy LeTourneau (Twitter)]
As a woman, that literally felt like a punch in the gut. To basically affirm that being a woman is a negative—in politics or any other endeavor—hits a sore spot that, for most of us, has been festering all of our lives. To hear it come from a liberal is both hurtful and enraging.
But I’d also like to focus on what Sanders said at the end of that clip. He talked about the importance of looking at the totality of a candidate’s record. That is actually good advice. It is too bad that he isn’t doing that in his recent attacks against Joe Biden.
For example, the Sanders campaign sent out an edited transcript of something Biden said about Social Security, claiming that he agreed with former Republican Speaker Paul Ryan. Politifact rated that statement false. Here is the part of the speech they left out.
[Now, I don’t know a whole lot of people in the top one-tenth of 1 percent or the top 1 percent who are relying on Social Security when they retire. I don’t know a lot of them. Maybe you guys do. So we need a pro-growth, progressive tax code that treats workers as job creators, as well, not just investors; that gets rid of unprotective loopholes like stepped-up basis; and it raises enough revenue to make sure that the Social Security and Medicare can stay, it still needs adjustments, but can stay; and pay for the things we all acknowledge will grow the country.]
Since the campaign got caught in that lie, Sanders supporters have attempted to claim that Biden has been advocating for cutting Social Security for 40 years. As is often the case with disinformation, that is based on a half-truth. To solve a budget impasse in 1995, Biden supported a freeze on all federal spending, including cost of living adjustments to Social Security. Then there was his support for an Obama proposal to change the way cost of living increases were calculated, including both the income tax tables and Social Security. But the Sanders campaign turned those positions into an accusation that Biden attempted to “slash Social Security.â€
An honest look at the totality of Biden’s position on Social Security would come from listening to Jared Bernstein, a progressive economist who served as an advisor to the former vice president.
[Re this Biden/Sanders dust-up re Soc Security: When I worked for Biden, we often talked about its importance. He was/is as staunch a supporter as you’ll find, both for econ & political reasons. “We should be increasing, not decreasing, Social Security!â€
—Jared Bernstein (Twitter)]
Bernstein linked to an article by Lorie Konish that outlines Biden’s current proposal to increase Social Security benefits.
In the end, Sanders could have honestly said that he disagreed with Biden’s positions in the past about how cost of living increases are calculated for Social Security. While that would have had the benefit of being true, it doesn’t have the same punch as accusing Biden of wanting to “slash Social Security.†So instead, he’s gone with the latter and a disinformation campaign.
Meanwhile, the Sanders campaign seems to be in a bit of disarray about how negative to go against Biden. They put out an email blast lauding an op-ed by a surrogate, Zephyr Teachout, titled. “‘Middle Class’ Joe Biden has a corruption problem—it makes him a weak candidate.†The email blast was written by Sanders’ speechwriter, David Sirota, who also tweeted the article.
The reaction was immediate and overwhelming.
[There are a lot of legitimate issues to debate in 2020. But the only two campaigns ever to call @Joebiden “corrupt†are Trump and Sanders.
What does that tell you?
—Ronald Klain (Twitter)]
[This is garbage from the Sanders campaign. Disagree on policy all you want, but this is a ludicrous argument about someone who has spent his life fighting for Democratic values.
—Matthew Miller (Twitter)]
By Monday night, Sanders had apologized.
[Senator Bernie Sanders apologized to former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday for an op-ed written by one of his campaign surrogates that claimed Biden has a “big corruption problem.â€
“It is absolutely not my view that Joe is corrupt in any way. And I’m sorry that that op-ed appeared,†Sanders told CBS News.]
The senator is to be commended for being willing to apologize. But the issue wasn’t the op-ed by Teachout. It is common for a candidate to have to distance themselves from something one of their surrogates said. The issue is that a high level staff person in the Sanders campaign promoted the article, indicating that it had been endorsed by the candidate.
Some of us spoke up when Sanders hired David Sirota because his modus operandi was obvious to anyone who knew his history. Sirota has a reputation of being a ruthless attack dog. The campaign had to know that when they hired him. But now it seems that Sirota went too far with his attacks and his boss has been forced to apologize.
It is clear that the Sanders campaign will rely on attacks against his opponents. But this latest incident demonstrates that they are still struggling with where the boundaries are for those negative attacks. It is good to know that, at least for the candidate himself, accusing Biden of being corrupt is outside the boundary.
This nails why I’m supporting Biden….
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/11/1910043/-Why-I-Support-Joe-Biden
As it stands I support Joe Biden for the nomination. Given the alarming divisiveness surrounding Joe, I suspect this will elicit a good deal of negative comments. After all, many people consider Joe a weak candidate, even though he still leads in the polls. In fact, although he has my support I have no problem admitting that his policies are less likely to excite the democratic electorate, certainly not the way Bernie does. Joe’s also notorious for gaffes and “unfortunate†comments. Then again, compared to Trump the bar’s set pretty low to begin with.
I recently attended a Biden Town Hall in NH. Encouraging as it was to see the strong turn out, I do wish I could have been more passionate about the kind of president he might become. Like Bernie Sanders’ supporters. Now these are some passionate people. So yeah, I wish I felt that way about Biden. But I don’t, and I won’t. Yet I’ll still vote for him, and I’ll support him in every way I can, as I will whoever becomes the frontrunner.
So why do I support Biden? Simple, I have one singular interest in this election. Removing Trump. Period, end stop. And the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump will earn my support, all my support. And furthermore, I don’t care who that candidate is as long as he or she has a capital “D†next to their name. Heck, if Mickey Mouse won the primary I’d canvass door-to-door for the little guy, extolling the historic opportunity to elect our first mouse as president. After all, we elected our first jacka– as president in 2016, thereby shattering the non-human mammal barrier. So why not a mouse? At least Biden has far more human qualities than Trump.
But in all seriousness, Biden has two things going for him that earn my vote and wholehearted support, at least for the time being. First, he leads the nomination. Poll after poll show him with varying leads. And Biden has a strong base of support with the essential African-American vote, as well as support in the vital swing states.
Now with recent polls showing Senator Warren slipping and Senator Sanders rising, that could certainly change. But as we’re in the election year counting down to the nomination, I’m going to throw my support behind the candidate with the best chance to defeat the biggest single threat to the nation since possibly the Civil War. And as polls also show Biden beating Trump, often by a larger share than other candidates, I’ll continue to support him as long as he has the best chance to take back the presidency.
The second reason why I support Biden is fear. It’s the reason why, in my opinion, he leads in the polls, and very well may win the nomination and then beat Trump.
Trump scares people. He certainly scares me. He also keeps me up nights. I suspect millions of other people are also losing sleep over this moron. And fear is a huge motivator, possibly the biggest. Because when people are afraid, when they’re scared deep down in the pits of their stomachs as so many are about Trump, they’ll yearn for leaders who will help them sleep nights. Alleviating this fear becomes their number one priority, more so than big policy ideas or autocratic personalities.
What I think Joe brings to the election is a feeling of normalcy, an antidote to the environment of hate and fear Trump has created. And I suspect that as long as he’s seen as a comfortable solution to putting Trump and the fear he engenders behind us, then he’ll likely win the nomination and become our next president…which is my number one priority, getting Trump out of the White House.
Of course Biden is clearly not as charismatic as Bernie, or supports policies as progressive, visionary and idealistic as either Senator Sanders or Warren. Nor are Biden supporters as committed or passionate as energized progressives. I suspect even other Biden supporters will acknowledge this. And Biden comes with plenty of political baggage, more than any other candidate due to his long tenure in politics. So much so it’s not difficult to find points of disagreement with him and his policies. I too take issue with some of his past political positions. But in my opinion none of this will matter as long as he’s the candidate who makes people feel less fearful, and who they perceive as the remedy to Trump.
Contrasting Biden is the idealism, the vibrancy and the promise of progressives like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. They offer a future of clear progressive change, change that excites a democratic electorate who sees their futures slipping away. Many of these voters are younger than I am and face deeply uncertain futures. So who can blame them? I certainly don’t.
It’s why, in my opinion, the Bernie Sanders phenomenon continues to have staying power four years after it began. It’s also why Bernie has such a commanding lead in fundraising, much it coming from millions of small money donations. I suspect many of these donations come from voters, young and otherwise, who rightly see their futures under attack.
Yet progressive candidates face their own challenges. For one, they have yet to topple Biden’s lead, and may never. But even if say Bernie pulls into the lead, maybe the biggest impediment to a progressive winning the general election is uncertainty, real or perceived, of the very policies they espouse. And the proposed program with the most uncertainty is Medicare-for-All.
For although many democrats, probably numbering millions, passionately support M4A, there are many millions who don’t. And the reason why they don’t is because it adds uncertainty to the same fear they’re trying to get away from, which too many will be far more important than its benefits, no matter how valid they may be.
The leading fear factor of M4A is its massive price tag. Whether it’s true or not, the media has latched onto a $32 Trillion estimate, a figure that rattles even many democrats, let alone conservatives who are still trying to kill the ACA.
However the ACA didn’t eliminate private health insurance the way a Medicare-for-All plan would. In fact, it was designed to include private health insurers at every step, a feature that was critical to getting the legislation passed and implemented. Yet we saw how much chaos resulted, and how deeply it shook the stability of the country.
Now consider that a M4A program would shift over a trillion dollars in annual private health insurance premiums into Medicare, effectively upending the health insurance industry. But the ACA did nothing of the sort. It didn’t even come close.
Yet the vehemence to the ACA was fierce as Republicans tried to overturn the legislation more than 50 times, have killed some of its most important features, such as the individual mandate, and continue to challenge it in court. On top of that, we currently face a Congress and an electorate that’s more divided than it was a decade ago. Yet even back then, in a less antagonistic political environment, the ACA just barely passed. So to many people, the prospect of such an intense conflict coming on the heels of Trump will hardly feel like the break from the fear and uncertainty they so desperately seek to avoid.
Oh, and just for the record, I have absolutely zero compassion for health insurers. Ideally I’d like to see the entire industry socialized down to its very last premium. If there is one industry that has no business being private, it’s healthcare, specifically health insurance. It’s simply immoral to allow an industry that decides the life or death of millions to be profit-based. So if we can pass M4A, I say bring it on.
But I, like many millions of voters who will decide the election in November, know what lies ahead, and how vehemently such an attempt will be resisted. If people thought the backlash against the ACA was vicious, well, compared to M4A we ain’t seen nothing yet! Even a public option, the policy supported by Biden, would represent a near impossible political “lift.â€
So yes, M4A promises significant benefits to average people, and long-term it may offer the best solution to our broken healthcare system and unequal economy, one that as the wealthiest nation in the world we should be better able to enact than any other developed country. But the perception of cost, and the feelings of uncertainty it creates, will become fierce political headwinds to winning back the presidency, and very possibly may guarantee Trump another four years, with disastrous results.
Because at the end of the day people respond not to reality, no matter how valid the evidence, but to what they believe, what they perceive. It’s why I believe progressive candidates are waging an uphill political battle, on M4A and other progressive policies. Although I intellectually support many of their policies, more than anything else I want to see Democrats win elections. Because unless we win elections, nothing else matters.
I once heard it said that Republicans are attracted to “shiny things.†As Democrats we frequently criticize conservatives for being unrealistic ideologues. My fear is that this political holy war we’re having over healthcare and other “shiny things†makes us just as guilty. It’s how we Democrats have managed to become exceptionally proficient at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! And it’s why I’m willing to support any candidate – Biden, Bernie, anyone – who has the best chance of winning the general election in November, even if they’re less than ideal…maybe even far less.
Now as far as the non-Biden candidates are concerned, the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination are Senators Sanders and Warren. And with the way things have been trending for Warren, it looks like Bernie has the better chance.
My fear is that if nominated his path to the presidency will be tough, maybe insurmountable. If Trump ultimately gets us into a war or the economy dips, then just about any Democrat could win. However, if things stay pretty much the same until November, then beating Trump will be difficult, regardless the candidate.
If Bernie does win the nomination we can expect Republicans to savagely attack him for being a socialist, regardless of reality. The billionaire money will then pile in to support Trump. And the voters who fear Bernie’s unwavering attachment to creating massive government programs more than the prospect of a second Trump term may stay home, or worse yet vote for Trump. It just feels to me that no matter how I look at it, Bernie’s path to the presidency is going to be steeper than Biden’s. And that’s a risk I just can’t accept.
But let’s say Bernie does somehow win the presidency, what then? First, he’ll need to win the Senate to have any chance to enact even one of his policies. Now something that I’ve never seen reported is that the governor of Vermont is a Republican. This means that when Bernie vacates his Senate seat a Republican will likely be appointed, thereby probably putting the Senate out of reach in 2020. There’s also concern that his nomination could put enough Democrats at risk to give the House back to the Republicans.
However if he somehow gets past these hurdles, he still has to face the reality of the filibuster, which is up to Senator Schumer to decide, assuming he becomes the Majority Leader. Then even if Schumer eliminates the filibuster, he’s going to need strong support from the electorate. Because if he tries to force through his policies without strong voter support, he’ll very likely give the Congress and the Presidency back to the Republicans in the next elections.
But it could get even worse. You see Trump can serve two terms as president, and they can be non-consecutive. This means that if Bernie is voted out in four years Trump could come back. And if you think Trump is a monster now, I shudder to think what he’ll become if it gets a second shot.
Taken together, I contend that the greater fear, whether it’s of Trump or Bernie, will be the deciding factor. As it stands currently, I believe that this fear will cause people to rally around Biden, warts and all. I just think they’ll see Biden as offering the most realistic path forward. Not because he offers the most progressive vision, but maybe because he doesn’t.
I think he also understands that people need help now, not when there’s sufficient political will to pass M4A or some other deeply progressive policy. I, for one, want to hear a candidate tell me what can be realistically delivered to the American people now, not try to sell me on some grand ideological vision, no matter how attractive it is to the liberal mindset…mine included.
So as long as Joe remains the candidate to beat, both in the primary and general election, I’ll throw my support behind him. And I’ll throw my heart into it as well, regardless of what kind of leader or policies I might prefer. Because at the end of the day, only one thing matters. Only one. And that’s turning the page on the disastrous imbecile in the White House. If prior to then a day comes when Bernie or Elizabeth becomes the Democratic standard bearer, I’ll gladly and wholeheartedly shift my support to him or her. But until that day arrives, if it arrives, Joe will get my full support. Because given what’s at risk to the future of not only America, but the entire world, I’ll make no apologies for supporting Joe Biden. None.
EW is my first choice. Bernie is my last, other than Tulsi. If he wins the nomination, I’ll vote for him, as I don’t want Trump for another 4 years, however, my vote will be rather reluctantly.
Very much in agreement with that, Former Republican. After the nightmare called Trump, people just want a sense of normalcy, not drastic changes.
I get the impression that Warren is a bit more willing to be more open about using the public option as a starting point to get to M4A than Sanders is.
Words of advice: Vote for whoever you like in the primary, but get totally behind whoever the nominee is in the general, otherwise, we’ll lose.
In the Democratic Primary, Delegate Counts Start to Matter on Super Tuesday
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/01/23/in-the-democratic-primary-delegate-counts-start-to-matter-on-super-tuesday/
The big news in the Democratic primary this week came from a CNN poll showing Sanders leading Biden nationally by three points (27-24). That has led to a chorus of headlines about a Sanders surge. But as is always the case, a bit of caution is in order when looking at the results of one poll. Since that one was released, both YouGov and Monmouth have shown Biden maintaining a significant lead over Sanders.
We are also at the point in the primary when, rather than national polls, all eyes are focused on the four early states, especially Iowa. With relatively few delegates in play, Ella Nilsen referred to these as the momentum primary. They are all about “election night headlines and who over performed expectations. †In that sense, it is almost impossible to predict who will gain or lose momentum during the month of February.
But keep in mind that three days after the South Carolina primary, the momentum primary will shift to an actual delegate count on Super Tuesday. On that day, 12 states will hold their primaries, with the big enchiladas being California and Texas. In addition to momentum, the four early states could affect these primaries based on who drops out of the race and where their supporters go.
With all of that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at where things stand in the Super Tuesday states. According to the poll aggregates at FiveThirtyEight, California is basically a tie between Biden and Sanders—with the former having a very slight edge. But in Texas, Biden leads by almost seven points. Biden also maintains a significant lead in North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The race is close in both Minnesota and Colorado, with Biden holding a small lead. The only state where Sanders leads is in Utah. Massachusetts also holds its primary on Super Tuesday and, unsurprisingly, Warren maintains a small lead over Biden in her home state.
It would be fair to assume that, regardless of how she does in the four early states, Warren will want to stay in the race through Super Tuesday in order to give herself a chance to win in her home state. The other candidate with significant support is Buttigieg. He is obviously raising enough money to compete through Super Tuesday. But if he were to drop out before then, Morning Consult shows that, when it comes to a second choice, his support would be split between Warren and Biden.
If, at some point, Warren does drop out of the race, conventional wisdom assumes that her support would shift to Sanders, which could alter the race significantly. According to Morning Consult, 37 percent name Sanders as their second choice. That is mitigated a bit, however, by the fact that 20 percent of Warren’s supporters name Biden as their second choice.
The bottom line is that, by the time votes are counted on March 3rd, at least 41 percent of delegates will have been awarded in the Democratic primary. So hang on to your hats, because in a little over a month we’ll have a pretty good idea about how this race is playing out.