Having projected the Presidential Election of 2020 yesterday, today I will project, six months out, subject to change as we get closer to the election, the likely Senate balance in 2021-2022.
It seems very likely at this point that the Democrats will win the majority of the US Senate, and kick out Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.
And I think the odds of Kentucky defeating McConnell for reelection are growing.
So let us look at state by state for the Senate in the 2020 election cycle.
There will be 12 Democratic held seats and 23 Republican held seats up for election.
This insures that the Democrats will gain seats, and it would seem highly likely that they will gain at least 3 seats, enough for control if Joe Biden wins the Presidency, as his female Vice President would be able to organize the Senate, and break any potential tie votes.
Much more likely is that the Democrats might gain up to 7 additional seats, by winning 8 races, but likely losing Doug Jones in Alabama, but that loss is certainly not an automatic result so the total number of Democrats could go to 53-55 as a maximum.
Other than Doug Jones, who has proved to be an inspiration that Alabama has potential for growth, the other 11 Democratic seats seem safe.
Tom Udall is leaving his New Mexico Senate seat, but it seems safely Democratic, as does Ed Markey’s seat in Massachusetts, although he might lose the Senate primary to Joe Kennedy III, but the seat will stay Democratic.
Turning to the Republicans, the following 11 seats seem safe:
Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming, although Lamar Alexander in Tennessee and Mike Enzi in Wyoming are leaving office, but still both of those states seem safe for Republicans.
So that leave 11 seats safe, but the other 12 unpredictable.
Most likely to go Democratic are in likeliness to occur:
Martha McSally seat in Arizona
Cory Gardner seat in Colorado
Kelly Loeffler seat in Georgia
Susan Collins seat in Maine
Steve Daines seat in Montana
Thom Tillis seat in North Carolina
Less likely to switch parties are in likelihood of occurring:
Joni Ernst seat in Iowa
Pat Roberts (retiring) seat in Kansas
David Perdue seat in Georgia
John Cornyn seat in Texas
Lindsey Graham seat in South Carolina
Mitch McConnell seat in Kentucky
My judgment is that one of those last six seats, likely Iowa, will also go Democratic, which means a gain of 7 seats to 54 or 53 if Doug Jones loses his seat.
But also, Kansas and Georgia (David Perdue) could surprise, and we can hope for a “miracle” that the two most despicable of a horrible group of Republicans, Graham or McConnell, might actually be defeated, along with Cornyn.
So in the best of all worlds, which would be a dream, imagine if the Republicans lost all 12 seats in contention, and did not defeat Doug Jones in Alabama, and we would have the grand total of 59 seats!
But reality sets in, and expect 53-55 seats for the Democrats, subject to changing dynamics, so we will look at this again in October.
Trump is up to his usual dirty, rotten tricks, blocking Fauci from testifying to the House next week.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/anthony-fauci-white-house-blocks-house-testimony/index.html
I will basically repeat a good amount of what I wrote in the previous blog topic (“Six Months to the Presidential Election of 2020: A First Assessment,†https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=39219).
For a 2020 Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, to go along with a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President, I will list the involved states. (Currently, the Republicans have 53 to the 47 seats for the Democrats.)
From 47 to 46: Lose Alabama, in what would become a Republican pickup, because the state is heavily aligned to the Rs. (2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump carried Alabama by +27 points.) Democrats’ feasible way of retaining the seat is with a Democratic pickup of the presidency; reducing Trump’s Republican hold of Alabama to no better than +9 points; have Democratic U.S. senator Doug Jones perform 10 points better than presumptive nominee Joe Biden to narrowly win a full-term re-election. I figure that won’t happen. Unless Doug Jones is personally popular, and Alabama voters are willing to do substantial ticket-splitting, it would call for Joe Biden to unseat Donald Trump and win the U.S. Popular Vote by around +15 percentage points.
47. Colorado—Easiest Democratic pickup! It flips no matter which party wins for U.S. President. It was the No. 16 best state, for Democrats, in 2016—and, like companion state Virginia, the Ds’ advantage here is about +6 or +7 points versus how the nation votes. Republican incumbent Cory Gardner—a 2014 pickup winner with a margin of +1.94—would have to see Trump re-elected and go from carrying 30 states (in 2016) to 36 states (here in 2020) to flip Colorado (and, with it, Virginia) to position Gardner for re-election. Cory Gardner is to 2020 Colorado what Mark Kirk was to 2016 Illinois—capable of winning in the midterms, yes, but not with a presidential election in a state that has realigned against his party. Watch out for Larimer County, with its county seat Fort Collins, because it is the best bellwether county in the state. (Since 1952, every presidential candidate who carried Colorado also carried Larimer County.) In 2014, the usually reliable bellwether counties Arapahoe and Jefferson, with their county seats Littleton and Golden, backed Udall. But, Larimer County flipped for Gardner (by a mere +0.37). This was the pivotal county-to-county-to-county situation, as well, when Rick Santorum defeated Mitt Romney in the 2012 Colorado Republican presidential caucuses. As Larimer County goes…so goes the State of Colorado.
48. Maine—Republican incumbent Susan Collins is in her fourth term and is vulnerable to becoming unseated due to her vote for Brett Kavanaugh to join the U.S. Supreme Court. The good will for Collins, who used to win landslide re-elections even when Democrats also carried Maine in landslides (she and Barack Obama were about 40 points in their margins spread in 2008), is going away. Collins needs Trump re-elected. She needs Trump to do what most re-elected incumbent presidents do—win a second term with higher numbers (which would be nice, for her, if he could also flip statewide Maine). If Collins gets unseated, she may regret that she did not opt for retirement.
49. Arizona (Special)—Polls continuously report Democrat Mark Kelly, the astronaut and husband of former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, is most likely going to flip the seat previously held by John McCain. The interim senator is Martha McSally. She lost the 2018 race, in a Democratic pickup, to Kyrsten Sinema. Key to the latter winning was her likewise flipping Maricopa County (Phoenix), home of around 60 percent the statewide vote and a bellwether to boot. (It used to shade slightly red. Now, it shades slightly blue.) So, this points advantage to Kelly. Arizona either flips this U.S. Senate seat in 2020—good for the next two years—or, with Trump re-elected, it flips in 2022 for when it will be scheduled for a regular six-year term.
50. North Carolina—A great state for having historically carried for the same party for both U.S. President and U.S. Senate since 1972. The only Democratic pickups came in 2008 for Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama and Democratic U.S. Senate pickup winner Kay Hagan (who unseated Republican Elizabeth Dole). This was the Democrats’ No. 26 best state in 2016. And when the party prevails, they are highly likely to carry no less than 26 states. (Once again—since 1992, the average number of states carried by presidential winners has been 29 with the range between 26 and 32.)
TIPPING POINT STATE: Some think it would be Georgia. Some think it would be Iowa. I even came across someone suggesting Montana. You can only know for fact after an election ends. Here is my estimate:
51. Georgia (Special)—The seat of interim Republican U.S. senator Kelly Loeffler. She replaced Johnny Isakson in 2019. She is considered to be a weaker candidate than her colleague David Perdue. So, if the Democrats can figure out unseating Perdue—who is listed at No. 52—they will flip here as well. I think this would be the tipping-point seat.
52. Georgia—For U.S. President, with exception of 2004, the state has been 5 points or less within margins spread of Arizona since the year 1988. Arizona was the 2016 Democrats’ No. 25 best state. Georgia was the Ds’ No. 27. My thinking, six months in advance, is that the state is likely to align with the party—and it will be just one party—which wins for U.S. President and the majority for U.S. Senate. The seat of David Perdue interests me. His is the regular six-year term. He won in 2014, for his first term, by +7.68 while Republicans—who flipped the U.S. Senate—won by +6.66. Perdue lost Henry County (McDonough), in a 2014 Democratic pickup for Michelle Nunn. It was also a 2016 Democratic pickup for presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (first for the party since 1980) and 2018 Democratic pickup for gubernatorial nominee Stacy Abrams. Perdue did carry, each by more than +10 points, Cobb County (Marietta) and Gwinnett County (Lawrenceville). But they became 2016 and 2018 Democratic pickups for Hillary Clinton and Stacy Abrams. (Cobb and Gwinnett counties previously carried at the presidential level in 1976.) This is the Atlanta area. A Democrat who will win a statewide pickup of Georgia will win from here. Perdue is bound to underperform his 2014-to-2020 margins in these counties. If Perdue gets unseated, these counties will be key to delivering this Democratic pickup, as well as the special race, a Democratic pickup of Georgia along with the presidency, and a majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate.
53. Iowa—Mixed polls, in recent times, for the seat of Joni Ernst. She was part of the Class of 2014 as Republicans won their majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate. If this was Ohio—the only 2016 Republican pickup state (for Trump) which did not deliver any Democratic pickups for U.S. Governors or U.S. House—I would rank Iowa lower. Iowa delivered 2018 Democratic pickups of two of its four congressional seats—going from a 1-to-3 to a 3-to-1 delegation. Its gubernatorial race was a near pickup as well. And, with the 2018 Democrats going from 16 to 23 governorships, the party’s tipping-point state (following No. 24 Florida and No. 25 Georgia) would have been No. 26 Iowa. With exceptions of 1976 and 2004, with small margins spread (under 5 points), Iowa and 2016 tipping-point state Wisconsin have voted the same in presidential elections since 1944. Worth keeping in mind is this: Over 90 percent of the statewide vote comes from people who are white. If they vote a majority to one candidate (as they did with 2008 and 2012 Obama and 2016 Trump), that candidate carries Iowa. This is one state that looks likely to deliver same-party carriage for U.S. President and U.S. Senate.
54. Texas—This is a state where the Republican incumbent U.S. senator, John Cornyn, is likely to outperform the Republican incumbent U.S. president, Donald Trump. But, the Democratic trend may be picking up faster than expected. Against a considered weak Democratic opponent, 2018 re-elected Republican governor Greg Abbott prevailed by +13 points when many thought he would win by closer to +18. (His 2014 margin, against Wendy Davis, was +20.) For the U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Beto O’Rouke’s attempt to unseat Republican incumbent Ted Cruz saw O’Rourke reduce Cruz’s 16-point margin from 2012 (when Obama was re-elected) to +2.56 in 2018. In the process, O’Rourke flipped the state’s best bellwether county, Tarrant County (Fort Worth), by +0.69—allowing it to shade +3.25 points more blue than the state. That is a big help in Democrats’ future efforts to carry Texas. So is Bexar County (San Antonio), a bellwether from 1972 to 2012 at the presidential level, which became Democratic for the 2016 presidential and 2018 midterm elections. (Bexar County, in 2016, was +22 points more Democratic than the state.) Fort Bend County (Richmond) became Democratic pickups for 2016 Hillary Clinton and 2018 Beto O’Rourke. The 23rd Congressional District, represented by Republican Will Hurd, is trending Democratic—admittedly, I haven’t gone over it—and that has prompted Hurd to make the same decision as fellow Republican Darrell Issa made with California #49 for 2018. But, the Texas counties to watch out for are the neighbors to Tarrant County. They are the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area Denton County (Denton) and Collin County (McKinney). Hillary Clinton lost Denton County by –20 points and Collin County by –17 points. Beto O’Rourke lost Denton County by –8 points and Collin County by –6 points. Looking at it from the Republican perspective: For Trump, his excess margins in the two counties were +11 (Denton County) and +8 (Collin County). For Cruz, his excess margins were +5 (Denton County) and +3 (Collin County). These four neighboring counties—Dallas County (Dallas), Tarrant County, Denton County, and Collin County—comprise nearly 25 percent the statewide vote. And I think, when Texas flips Democratic, they will be key to making that happen.
55. Montana—This is a state routinely Republican for U.S. President but also routinely electing and re-electing Democrats to its governorship and at least one of its two U.S. Senate seats. (From 2007 to 2014, it had two Democrats for U.S. Senate.) Unless it becomes bluer than a trending red Ohio, it will take the 2020 Democrats, by my estimate, at least 31 states to carry Montana for U.S. President—and that would require a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +9—but it may require at least one point less to flip U.S. Senate. That is because Steve Bullock is more likely to run better than Joe Biden with their margins. (I wrote about Montana in more detail here: “Economic Downturns and American Presidential Elections in History,†https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=39032.) Key Montana counties are Cascade County (Great Falls) and the Democratic trending Gallatin County (Bozeman, which was a Democratic pickup for Hillary Clinton in 2016). The state is a sleeper for Democrats. I thought Barack Obama should have flipped it in 2008. (After 2004 re-elected George W. Bush won it by +20.50 points, losing 2008 nominee John McCain carried it by +2.38 points.) Perhaps this may be attributed to Montana allocated with only 3 electoral votes. (It is projected to increase to 4 electoral votes and become applicable to Elections 2024 and 2028.) But, there is no state that is too small a state to carry.
I won’t be getting anything specific with the following states. But, I estimate No. 56 would be South Carolina. To reach a supermajority of 60 seats, four of the (alphabetically) following five would flip: Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Tennessee.
Thanks again, D, for your detailed analysis of Senate races!
As always, much appreciated!