Donald Trump is on the way to an historic repudiation, possibly one of the worst for any President running for reelection.
He did not have the majority or even plurality vote for him in 2016, and now he is losing portions of his base, including senior citizens, evangelical Christians, and non college educated white men and women.
Just losing a small amount of these groups is enough to doom him, as he has made clear that he is not trying to add to his base, and never has done so in the past three and a half years.
With African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, Native Americans, Jews, Social Justice Catholics, mainline Protestants, college educated white men and women, suburbanites, conservative intellectuals, and moderate Republicans all strongly against everything Donald Trump has wrought, his prospects are going down the drain.
He will not be able to stop mail voting, but Republican state officials will continue to try to prevent the right to vote, and it is also clear that foreign influences will interfere, and are ready to foist this criminal President on the nation together.
So the urgency of Americans to vote, even if not thrilled by Joe Biden, as this is not a question of ideals, but rather of survival of our Constitution and American democracy!
Given history, Professor, i hesitate to ask; but i must: Do You have any actual, real polls results that confirm Your assertion that Trump is “losing portions of his base”? Particularly among Seniors, Evangelicals, and the non-college educated WhiteFolk? Any at all?
And which of all those “Africa Americans, Latino Americans…conservative intellectuals, and moderate Republicans are “all [sic] strongly against everything Donald Trump has wrought”? All? Everything?
Where is that showing up in Congress? Where are all his 42-48% approval ratings coming from?
But Thank You for acknowledging that Biden is not “thrilling.” Once again, Americans are given the choice between Tweedledee and Tweedledum; our perennial quadrennial “choice between the lesser of two evils.” Wouldn’t it be interesting to see what would happen if Americans were given an actual, real Choice?
Yes, the Professor is looking at real polls.
Thank you, Former Republican!
Jeffrey, I did not say Biden is not thrilling, as he was my favorite in 2016, and I have always been a great admirer of him, my favorite politician after Hubert Humphrey died in 1978. He is not perfect of course, but no comparison to Trump!
And who would be your choices for the Presidency on both sides, Jeffrey?
In the past, I have said that John Kasich in 2016 and Jon Huntsman in 2012 were the best Republicans.
And while I would not vote for them, they are the best in a party that is really horrible in its leadership!
If it had been Joe Biden vs Kasich in 2016, it would have been a great choice, as I see it!
WHICH “real polls”? Can You name a couple?
And if nobody is “thrilled by Biden,” then i would say that that makes him “not thrilling,” wouldn’t You?
And there is no Republican or Democrat that i would choose to be the next President. As far as i am concerned, they’re all a bunch of lying, thieving criminals.
This country cannot take four more years of Trump’s bigotry, hate, and stupidity. That’s why we all need to do our part and ensure he loses.
Amen to that, Leia. And we need to win the Senate back as well.
A new national Ipsos/Reuters poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 45% to 39% lead over President Donald Trump.
That’s in line with other recent polls suggesting Biden has a lead of somewhere between 6 points and 8 points. Biden’s lead has stayed consistent, though the race is close enough that Trump could close the gap in the five months between now and the election. Biden may try to shore up his position through his vice presidential selection.
Great. And did that Ipsos/Reuters poll say how many of those people who favor Biden right now over Trump are part of what the Professor is calling “Trump’s base”? Or even simpler: How many voted for Trump in 2016 and are against him now? i seriously doubt it.
And then there’s this: “Trump Leads Biden in the States He Won in 2016”
President Donald Trump leads Joe Biden 51% to 44% in the so-called “red states†he won in 2016, according to an ABC News/Washington Post survey released on Sunday. Biden had a wide, 65% to 32% lead in the states won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The results highlighted the difference between a raw national poll — in which Biden led Trump by 10 points, 53% to 43% among registered voters — and the Electoral College, which will decide the victor in November. Clinton easily won the popular vote over Trump in 2016.
Biden’s national lead was also halved to five points, 51% to 46%, among people who say they’re certain to vote in November, underlining the importance of generating enthusiasm to drive voter turnout. Potential Trump voters were more enthusiastic. …..
Sorry. That was from Bloomberg: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-31/biden-urges-protesters-to-harness-their-rage-campaign-update?sref=Ibao1i8N]
Thanks for that info, Rational Lefty.
We watch MSNBC. Steve Kornacki breaks down polls like that into demographics such as race, gender, age.
What the Professor says is true. Trump is losing. People are sick of him.
Thanks, Rustbelt Democrat!
However, Trump and Barr will try to convince people that those who rioted were all Antifa, when most clearly were right wing extremists, and white supremacists, or under foreign support, who want Trump in for another four years!
The reason why everyone must vote for the candidate of compassion, empathy, and competence, Joe Biden!
When Ronald uses the word “losing,†I know it means shifting away.
It means base groups, for the Republican Party, which were there for delivering a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States to Donald Trump, are reducing their level of 2020 support for re-electing Trump.
(Side note: WeAskAmerica just came out with a poll reporting Trump is ahead in Missouri by +4. He won it in 2016 by +18.51 percentage points. Missouri’s best companion state nowadays is Indiana. Its 2016 margin for Trump was +19.01. They were Trump’s Nos. 16 and 15 best-performed states. For the 2016 Democrats, they were Nos. 35 and 36. If Missouri were to carry in the general election for Trump by +4, and that would make Indiana a more likely +5, that means a Democratic victory in the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +10. I would estimate the necessary margin as Democratic +13 and +14 to flip and carry both states. Overall point: That poll reports a conspicuous 2016-to-2020 Trump underperformance in the former bellwether-turned-Republican-aligned state Missouri.)
Jeffrey Moebus asked for more information. Well, there have already been lots of polls taken. They continue to be taken. And you would need to follow a good amount of them, one by one, if you want those “real polls results.â€
One source is “Real Clear Politics.†It lists a lot of polls. It also provides the links to those polls. And “Real Clear Politics†covers not just the United States presidential race but some other ones as well.
A few sources (links):
https://www.realclearpolitics.com
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
Thanks, D, once again, “coming to the rescue”, with facts, not opinions!
Do you realize how priceless you are to this blog? 🙂
538 is a good source for polling information.
The Republicans Who Could Help Elect Joe Biden
A new website shows a growing movement of GOP voters ready to oust Trump.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/05/28/the-republicans-who-could-help-elect-joe-biden/
Finally, Older Voters are Starting to Move Away from Trump
It looks like his mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak might have done the trick.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/05/21/finally-older-voters-are-starting-to-move-away-from-trump/
i’m very familiar with RealClear’s polls. That’s where i got the data correcting Professor Feinman’s assertion that Trump only has “30-40%” favoring him, as opposed to the 43-48% he apparently does.
But the more significant point [and question] is this: How accurate were all the polls back in 2016 as far as predicting who was to be the winner between Clinton and Trump? Were any of the polls even close?
Jeffrey Moebus writes, “But the more significant point [and question] is this: How accurate were all the polls back in 2016 as far as predicting who was to be the winner between Clinton and Trump? Were any of the polls even close?â€
They were not accurate.
You may be interested in the following:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election
* * * * *
I do want to ask you, Jeffrey Moebus, the following question:
What is an important difference between the United States presidential election of 2016 and the United States presidential election of 2020?
In addition to the 100s of videos of Never Trump Republicans at the Bulwark, you have the Lincoln Project (a group of prominent Never Trump Republicans) putting out very effective anti-Trump attack ads on TV and the internet.
2020, the same as it was in 2016, is about what kind of America you want to live in. I don’t want our country going backwards to the hatred and bigotry of 1950s America, which is what Trump supports.
2020 is also about saving our democracy from the wannabe dictator who currently resides in the White House. He wants to be like Putin or Kim Jung Un rather than be like a democratic leader, such as Angela Merkel o Justin Trudeau.
Thanks for the Wiki-links. D. They confirmed just how totally inaccurate all the polls were, save one, the LA Times/USC.
You wrote: “What is an important difference between the United States presidential election of 2016 and the United States presidential election of 2020?”
First of all, D: Define “important.”
The simplest, most accurate answer to Your question is that Everything is different between Election 2016 and Election 2020. Among the more significant differences are:
1. That this election involves a sitting US President, with the full panoply and panopticon of the US federal government, the bully pulpit of the Oval Office, and very supportive access to very powerful segments of America’s Wealth and Power suprastructure at his disposal to use as he [and they] deems fit to aid and abet his re-election.
2. That this election is happening within the context of The COVID-19 Event, and the national [to say nothing of the international and global] economic crisis that it has precipitated.
3. That this election is happening at a time when this nation is no longer simply divided, but fractured almost to the verge of disintegration in ways it has not been in 160 years, since the eve of The First American Civil War.
All those Floyd Death protests, riots, looting, burning of businesses and police stations and cars are probably just a harbinger of things to come as we move into what promises to be a very long, very hot Summer. And Hurricane Season starts tomorrow.
4. But the most important difference between 2016 and 2020 is that this election may very well not even happen in November. And, if it does, that an inauguration may very well not happen next January, regardless of who loses. The next question will then become: And will there be Mid-Terms in 2022? Let alone will America still be around to celebrate its 250th birthday on July 4, 2026.
What do You feel is/are the most important difference/s?
If you care about anything progressive, do not vote for Trump. He won’t do anything about climate change, protect voting rights, protect Roe v Wade, put us on a path to universal healthcare, etc.
Nailed it, Pragmatic!
As I recall, Hillary was leading against Trump until October.
Jeffrey Moebus,
I appreciate your response.
Thank you!
The “difference†between Elections 2016 and 2020 is that 2016 was one in which the nation had to elect a new U.S. president; 2020 is an incumbent year in which the nation can re-elect to a second term the incumbent U.S. president.
Right there are two different types of elections.
In Election 2016, the incumbent U.S. president was term-limited. The Democrats won the presidency, as a pickup, in 2008 and, as a hold, in 2012. Specifically with Barack Obama.
Election 2020, following 2016 having been a Republican presidential pickup year, is one in which the incumbent, Donald Trump, is trying to win a second term—in what would be a Republican hold—and we are yet to find out whether he and the party prevails.
The two election cycles, 2016 and 2020, have a historical pattern that is more advantageous for the Republicans. A party booted out of the White House does not often return to win back the presidency with the very next presidential election cycle. During the 20th century, it happened only once: the consecutive cycles of 1976 (Democratic pickup for Jimmy Carter) and 1980 (Republican pickup for Ronald Reagan). But for all the rest: a Republican or Democratic pickup year was followed in the next cycle by a Republican or Democratic hold of the presidency.
I would normally have figured that Election 2020, for the presidency, would end up a Republican hold. (I was thinking it last November.) But, what has changed the trajectory is COVID–19 having struck on the watch—here in the United States—of Republican incumbent Donald Trump.
This is much about timing. This is true of many election cycles. If we were in the second (rather than the first) term of Donald Trump, and we had to elect a new U.S. president, it would be an easy Democratic pickup. (Like 2008, with the Economic Meltdown. On the watch of then-two-term Republican incumbent George Bush. Only, it was his would-be successor, nominee John McCain, and the Republican Party, who took the electoral hits.) But, we have a different circumstance here in 2020.
I want to make it clear that the unseating of an incumbent U.S. president doesn’t tend to happen because people who self-identify with the opposition party generally think lowly of that U.S. president affiliated with the party they do not prefer. If that was enough to unseat incumbent U.S. presidents, most would have served no more than one term. A bad economy is the most common reason. That bad economy, with massive job losses, and with the timing being key, is what does it in most cases.
Biggest difference is that people have seen the four years of damage that Trump has done to our and they don’t want four more years of him continuing to ruin our country.
Exactly, Leia. This country cannot afford four more years of the Divider In Chief.
So we agree, D, that the pivotal difference between 2016 and 2020 is that an incumbent President is running for re-election.
So, at this time, do You thin there will be an election in November? And if there is, will there be an inauguration next January, regardless of who loses?
I don’t know about D, but, I think there would be an election and inauguration. Of course if the inaugural is Trump’s, I won’t be tuning in.
There you go again, Jeffrey, stoking fear and trepidation!
There will be an election, as it is constitutionally required, and there will be an inauguration, and Trump will be leaving, and if he resists, the Secret Service does its job as it is required to do.
One can be sure many of the agents, if they could, would write quite a memoir in the future, and some probably will down the road!
Heh. Well then, maybe the appropriate question is whether there will still be a Constitution in place that requires that election, and if anybody stills pays any attention to it.
The governments of this nation have a long history of doing things that are not in the Constitution, and of not doing things that are.
Trump Is a Spent Force and Should Step Aside
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/06/01/trump-is-a-spent-force-and-should-step-aside/
Jeffrey Moebus asks, “So, at this time, do [you, D, think] there will be an election in November? And if there is, will there be an inauguration next January, regardless of who loses?â€
Yes, there will be a general election—for U.S. President and down-ballot races and ballot issues—as scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
If you are interested in presidential inaugurations, you can read more about them here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration.
Wednesday, January 20, 2021, at 12:00 p.m. ET, is beginning of the next term—whether or not there will be a ceremony—and that will happen.
Thanks so much, D, for your understanding of our Constitution, history, and rule of law.
No matter what the circumstances, including the Civil War and World War II and other emergencies, and despite the spreading of fear at those times as now, we will not allow the breaching of our Constitution!
Donald Trump will leave office on time, no matter what he attempts to do, which will only lower his reputation in history ever more than it is on this morning, after his stunt at the church yesterday!
And if the military-industrial complex, petro-financial web, techo-infotainment matrix, guns n drugs cartels, and the surveillance, secrecy, security, safety panopticon that rules America determines to “breach” that Constitution? Who and/or What is going to stop It?
That’s like asking: If those who benefited the most from 9/11 determine that they could benefit even more from a second iteration, Who and/or What is going to stop Them?
i am reminded of the early fall of 1989. Who could or would have imagined that the Berlin Wall would be gone in a couple of months,,, and that the USSR and European Communism would be gone in a couple of years?
Of course, that was also the year of Tienanmen, as the Chinese began to fine tune their symbiosis of state capitalism and socialistic fascism; what is emerging as the dominant political/economic/legal/civil society paradigm for the 21st century.
Yes; we had elections during the Civil War [in the North, at least] and the two World Wars. But this, i think You will agree, is a bit different.
Or maybe You don’t.
.
Elect Biden and will still have a Constitution.
Re-elect Trump and the Constitution will be destroyed.
Hence why I’m going to ensure Trump loses.