Donald Trump is rapidly deteriorating mentally and physically, as he sees himself losing on so many fronts.
The latest is the Supreme Court decision on DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), allowing those immigrants who came to America as young children, and were threatened with deportation by Trump, to remain in America, at least for the time being. Hopefully, their status will be finally resolved in 2021 by a President Joe Biden and a Democratic Congress.
Chief Justice John Roberts again proved how “unreliable” he is for conservative values, making the decision 5-4.
And now, Trump is not only declaring war on the Supreme Court, with his utterance that the Justices do not like him, but also on Fox News Channel, which just published a poll showing Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by the massive margin of 12 points nationally.
Donald Trump is suffering mightily as everything is going against him, and it could not happen to a better person!
Nate Silver’s “Five Thirty Eight†reports a model for its tracking of the 2020 United States presidential election.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/.
“Five Thirty Eight,†weighing numerous reported polls, estimates Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden leads Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump by +9.2 percentage points nationwide. 50.5 to 41.3 percent.
Silver notes this is a “snapshot†and not a “forecast.â€
Here are some states’ margins (what would be 2020 Democratic pickups are indicated with an *):
Colorado +17.0
Maine +13.5
New Mexico +13.3
Virginia +10.6
* Michigan +10.2
— National: +9.2 —
Nevada +8.8
New Hampshire +7.7
* Florida +6.9
Minnesota +6.6
* Wisconsin +6.6
* Pennsylvania +5.3
* Arizona +4.0
* North Carolina +3.0
* Ohio +2.7
* Georgia +1.0
States indicated as, so far, narrow 2020 Republican holds:
Iowa –0.6
Texas –0.7
I don’t think most of what “Five Thirty Eight†estimates, for now, would jibe with reality with a U.S. Popular Vote margin that ends up becoming Democratic +9.2. (Again—I know it is a snapshot; not a forecast.)
Nevada and Minnesota, as 2016-to-2020 Democratic holds, would deliver margins above, not below, the Democrats’ U.S. Popular Vote margin. They would be around +2 to +5 in excess. Between +11 to +14. (I would guess Minnesota at +11 or +12 and Nevada at +13 or +14.)
Colorado and Virginia, whichever their order (not the same each time), are more in line with Democratic excess of +6 and +7. So, +15 and +16. (The two companion states, which have voted the same—except for 1992—since 1948, have been 3.50 points or less in margins spread since 1996. Recently, they are right next door to each other for where they end up ranking. In 2016, their margins spread was a mere 0.41.)
As for the pickup states: I’ve mentioned a few times that the 2016-to-2020 Democrats are working off an adjusted popular-vote margin of –2. That had 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have been not –2.09 but +2.
(What twisted that result, more than anything, was California having carried by +29.99, a good +28—the adjusted is +32—points above their national support. Usually California performs +15 to +20 in excess of the Democrats’s national support. So, the 2020 Democrats would not win the U.S. Popular Vote by +9 or +10 and carry California by nearly +40.)
A pickup winning Republican or Democrat tends to win a net gain of closer to +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted. (2012 Mitt Romney lost by –3.86. And 2016 Trump won pickups of +6 states.)
I also mentioned that prevailing Democrats tend to carry +22 states (sometimes +21) in excess of the whole-number-estimate in their U.S. Popular Vote margin. 2008 Barack Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7.26 and carried 28 states. (He was –0.13 from flipping Missouri.) 2012 re-elected Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 and carried 26 states. And, with the exception of 1992 (when pickup winner Bill Clinton won the U.S. Popular Vote by +5.56 and carried 32 states), the party has been on this pattern since 1960.
I don’t think a Democratic popular-vote margin of +9.2 would see the party carry only 28 states. It would be either 30 or 31. This means, with that +9.2, if that margin stays both Iowa and Texas will also flip. (Between now and Election Day, I would figure there would be a concerted effort to flip both states—especially given Iowa is also in position to flip its Republican-held U.S. Senate seat in a state which has delivered same-party outcomes for U.S. President and U.S. Senate since 1996.)
In 2008, when Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of the presidency, he flipped nine states. Four of those pickups delivered margins above the party’s U.S. Popular Vote margin. They were:
New Mexico +15.13
Nevada +12.49
Iowa +9.54
Colorado +8.95
[U.S. Popular Vote: D+7.26]
Virginia +6.30
Ohio +4.58
Florida +2.81
(Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District +1.19)
Indiana +1.03
North Carolina +0.33
In 2016, a Republican presidential pickup year for Donald Trump, six states were flipped and two of them were well above his [adjusted] popular-vote margin. They were:
(Maine’s 2nd Congressional District +10.28)
Iowa +9.41
Ohio +8.07
[Adjusted U.S. Popular Vote: R+2]
Florida +1.19
Wisconsin +0.76
Pennsylvania +0.72
Michigan +0.22
However many states would become 2020 Democratic pickups, for a Democratic presidential pickup winner, I would suspect one-third to one-half of those applicable would come through with margins just above what the party receives in the U.S. Popular Vote. So, from Nate Silver’s “Five Thirty Eight,†I would expect to see Pennsylvania and 2016 tipping-point state Wisconsin join Michigan. Anything more would start with including Arizona. A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +9 can make Michigan come in at +11 or +12 with the rest following in, say, increments of one. (Envision it as: Michigan +12; Pennsylvania +11; Wisconsin or Arizona at +9 and +10; U.S. Popular Vote margin of +9; all the rest of applicable pickup states follow.)
I do want to see more state polling. I am most interested in Montana. In 2004, the Democratic margin in that state was –20.50. It was the 2004 Democrats’ No. 38 best state. In 2016, the Democratic margin in that state was –20.23. It was the 2016 Democrats’ No. 38 best state. In the 2008 Democratic presidential pickup year, Montana reduced its Republican support dramatically and came down to –2.38. It became the 2008 Democrats’ No. 30 best state. (The party carried 28 states.) Here in 2020, in what is shaping up to become not just another Democratic presidential pickup year but a decisive one that could lead to a landslide (400 or more electoral votes), I am guessing Montana may end up performing as the Democrats’ No. 31 best state. If the party ends up winning the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +9, the state should be pursued. (I wrote about the specifics of Montana in a blog-topic comment here: https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=39032.) So, given it also has a U.S. Senate election with a Democratic challenger in position to unseat a Republican incumbent, I want to see more poll reports from the state of Montana.
These reported Joe Biden-leading-Donald Trump poll reports of double-digit U.S. Popular Vote margins—a recent one was Democratic +14—calls for the necessity of more state polls. Especially states which ranked among the 2016 Democrats’ Nos. 31 to 40 best-performed states. South Carolina was their No. 31. Alaska was their No. 32. Mississippi was their No. 33. Utah was their No. 34. Missouri was their No. 35. Indiana was their No. 36. Louisiana was their No. 37. Montana was their No. 38. Kansas was their No. 39. Nebraska [statewide and with its rank right next to the state’s 1st Congressional District] was their No. 40.
I don’t think a Democratic pickup of the presidency of +9 to as high as +14 is going to yield carriage of only 27 or 28 states. Unless California does yield an abnormally high margin, as it did in 2016, this scenario is not likely to match what would become reality. So, I want to see more poll reports—state after state—from this point forward.
Glad to see Trump having a bad week. 🙂
What Will It Take to Burst Trump’s Delusions?
The president has never been in touch with reality. Some of his supporters are starting to realize that.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/06/19/what-will-it-take-to-burst-trumps-delusions/
Dump has his Klan rally tomorrow night in Tulsa. The concern is that it’s going to be a superspreader event for the virus.