Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.
This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!
His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.
So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.
Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.
There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.
So the situation looks as follows:
As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.
Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.
But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.
So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.
South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.
If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!
The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.
This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!
And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!
One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!
There is something else which springs to mind that can be added to this blog topic by Ronald.
In exit polls, there are four commonly recorded voting-age groups: 18–29; 30–44; 45–64; and 65+.
In both 2012 and 2016, the Democrats nationally carried the younger half while Republicans nationally carried the older half.
The first to vote for the Democrats is the youngest group. (They were the only ones nationally carried by losing 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.)
The first to vote for the Republicans is the oldest group. (They were the only ones nationally carried by losing 2008 Republican nominee John McCain.)
There have been polls suggesting the oldest group is shifting strongly away, here in 2020, from Republican incumbent president Donald Trump to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
In 2016, Trump nationally carried 65+ voters by +7 percentage points. (He received 52 of their vote nationwide.)
There have also been polls suggesting the youngest group are not very enthusiastic about presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. (2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama nationally carried 18–29 voters by +34 percentage points. He received 66 percent of their vote nationwide.)
In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by nationally carried 18–29 voters by +19 percentage points. (She received 55 percent of their vote nationwide.)
The oldest half tends to combine for 52 to 55 percent of the size of the vote nationwide. (In 2016, they combined for 56 percent.)
The youngest half tends to combine between 45 to 48 percent of the size of the vote nationwide. (In 2016, they combined for 44 percent.)
It depends on the election—which of the two major political parties is more likely to win (and if it is a party-pickup year)—because 2008 (a Democratic pickup year for Barack Obama, when the youngest half combined for 47 percent of the size of the vote nationwide) and 2016 (a Republican pickup year for Donald Trump) were different.
I suspect, with COVID–19 undoing the presidency and re-election efforts of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, we may see this 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden be one in which all four commonly recorded voting-age groups end up in the Democratic column. Biden would not be winning the presidency with the 2008 Obama coalition but rather a strong national—and state-to-state—Democratic wave that shifts just above everything and everyone to some different but more than efficient degrees. (I am suspecting, for U.S. President, we may see all 50 states plus District of Columbia shift their 2016-to-2020 margins away from Republican and toward Democratic.)
This suggests a 2020 Democratic pickup of 65+ voters nationwide (from –7 to a single-digit margin on the positive side).
This suggests a likewise 2020 Democratic pickup of 45–64 voters nationwide (from –8 to a likewise single-digit margin on the positive side).
The 30–44 voting-age group may increase their 2016-to-2020 Democratic support from +10 to closer to +20.
The youngest voting-age group may increase their 2016-to-2020 Democratic support from +19 to somewhere near the mid +20s.
We may get exit-poll numbers like the following: 18–29—Democratic +25; 30–44—Democratic +17; 45–64—Democratic +5; 65+—Democratic +3. With the numbers, as examples, we could see a U.S. Popular Vote margin that is between Democratic +11 and +12.
If one wants, go ahead and adjust those the numbers down for a U.S. Popular Vote margin of Democratic +9 or +10. That level is my impression, right now, of the national race. And that would suggest carriage of 30 to 32 states.