The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.
The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.
With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:
Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes
Michigan 16 electoral votes
Wisconsin 10 electoral votes
North Carolina 15 electoral votes
Arizona 11 electoral votes
Ohio 18 electoral votes
Georgia 16 electoral votes
Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!
Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.
Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.
It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!
Biden’s lead over Trump is the steadiest on record.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/biden-lead-steady-new-polls/index.html
Steve Kornacki was on last night, showing different paths it could take for Biden to win.
Ronald writes,
“With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following: | Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes | Michigan 16 electoral votes | Wisconsin 10 electoral votes | North Carolina 15 electoral votes | Arizona 11 electoral votes | Ohio 18 electoral votes | Georgia 16 electoral votes
“Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!â€
* * *
Lots of polls are being reported. It is a matter of two things: the methodology of a poll and how that poll stacks up against others—whether comparing state-to-state or national (or relating state-to-state and national to each other)—for what may feasibly play out in the general election.
In late-August, there were reports the race was “tightening.†What that really meant was that some of those national polls of Democratic challenger Joe Biden over Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump by +11 to +15 percentage points or more were lowering. (Of course, there are routine reports about party conventions and whether one or both major-party nominees experience a bump.)
Last week, more polls were reported from the likes of Fox News and Quinnipiac University suggesting a return to the level for which I have been sensing may be the result with Election 2020.
I do question reported polling margins, for numerous states, because I do recognize a partisan advantage to each in relation to what I think would be the percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. (I have recognized that the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are likely to lead the way—that the winner of Election 2020, as it was with Election 2016, will carry them. Same goes, by the way, with bellwether Florida which, since 1996, has delivered margins within 5 points from the national outcome.)
Since the 1980s, party-pickup presidential winners—1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan; 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton; 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush; 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama; 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump—have seen a collective average of 44 percent of their pickup states deliver a percentage-points margin above what they received in the U.S. Popular Vote. (This is with adjusting 2000 Bush and 2016 Trump to a positive margin. They both would have won by +2.) So, a Republican or a Democratic presidential pickup winner with a net gain of, say, +10 states would see +3 to +5 states deliver margins above the U.S. Popular Vote. (This means I am not buying into bare, single-digit margins for all would-be 2020 Democratic pickups.)
On this date of September 8, 2020, we are now eight [8] weeks from the scheduled date of Election Day that is Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
In an April 30, 2020 response to Ronald’s blog topic, “Six Months to the Presidential Election of 2020: A First Assessment†( https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=39219), I wrote in detail what I was thinking. And I won’t repeat too much of that here.
Four months later, and here on September 8, 2020, I still am thinking along the same lines.
“If 2020 results in a Democratic pickup of the presidency, the Ds will have won the U.S. Popular Vote by no less than +4 (the level of 2012 Obama).â€
Yes, that +4—and with carriage of 26 states—is the floor for prevailing Democrats for U.S. President. (Only three elections—1824, 1860, and 1976—saw a minority number of states carried by a presidential winner.)
Going by the 2016-to-2020 maps, that +4 would mean holds (with increased margins) of the 20 Democratic-carried states, from 2016, along with these 2020 pickups: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, [Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District], and North Carolina. That is my estimate of the order of their margins. (It could work out where Arizona delivers a margin a little higher than Wisconsin to end up the tipping-point state for Election 2020.)
For 2020 Democrats to win nationally by +5 brings in a 27th state, Georgia. To win by +6 or +7 or +8 or +9 delivers—although it isn’t easy to predict their exact order (so I will alphabetize them)—the likes of Iowa, [Maine’s 2nd Congressional District], Ohio, and Texas.
I am sensing Election 2020, for U.S. President, is on the level of Democratic +8 to +10 in the U.S. Popular Vote.
Prevailing Democrats, since 1960 (but with exception of 1992 Bill Clinton), have carried +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margins in the U.S. Popular Vote.
Right now, my guess is: Donald Trump 44% vs. Joe Biden 53%.
That is a 9-point margin. Carriage of 30 states which include all mentioned. (Those which would come in to rank for the 2020 Democrats between Nos. 31 to 35 may be alphabetically: Alaska, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah—with consideration of Indiana, Missouri, and [Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District].)
I think Trump, who received 45.93 percent in 2016, has been and continues to be in that area of 43 to 46 percent.
In 2016, the two-party vote added up to 93.95 percent. I don’t think that will be in that range here in 2020. With the 2020 two-party vote likely to combine for the typical range of 97 to 99 percent—leaving a buffer of 1 to 3 percent cumulatively for all candidates outside the two major parties—Trump has to get about 48 percent to get by with re-election. (He can’t lose nationally by –3.75 or –4 or worse and win re-election.)
I don’t sense Trump being able to reach 47 let alone 48 percent. Not especially with state-to-state polls showing a 2016-to-2020 Trump underperformance just about everywhere—and this also applies to the raw-vote margins in all he carried in 2016—including: the nation’s Top 10 populous states (he carried 7 and is in position to potentially lose them all); and the Top 20 populous states (he carried 12 and, yes, all have been polling with an indication they are shifting away from him). 75 percent of the nation’s people live in a Top 20 populous state. That has a way of affecting the numbers, from the prior election cycle, than some people may anticipate or realize.
This indicates Trump doesn’t have the back support necessary to win re-election. And this helps to explain my “guess.â€
We will see how the next eight weeks will play out. But, if does turn out that Biden unseats Trump, it may be that the dye was cast several months ago. As I mentioned, from April 30, 2020, the catalyst for Donald Trump to become the 11th unseated president in United States history, is COVID–19.
Brilliant analysis once again, D, and I fully agree with all of your conclusions!
I will make a final statement on October 31, exactly six months after April 30, but at this time, I think it will be very similar, if not precisely the same as I projected on April 30, a massive Joe Biden win!
Thanks again, D! 🙂
Correction [really, it was a typo]:
“Yes, that +4—and with carriage of 26 states—is the floor for prevailing Democrats for U.S. President. (Only three elections—1824, 1860, and 1976—saw a minority number of states carried by a presidential winner.)â€
I meant to type 1960.
The 1960 Democratic presidential pickup for John Kennedy saw him carry less than 50 percent of the nation’s states.
The other two cycles—for 1824 John Quincy Adams and 1976 Jimmy Carter—also saw them carry less than 50 percent of the nation’s states.
Thanks, D, for the correction!
New poll: Most Americans are skeptical of a vaccine being rushed.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-poll-rushed-ebdc01ad-4f2b-4cc3-8097-1f77efaf6177.html
I don’t trust a vaccine being rushed either. And I certainly don’t trust Trump being in charge of dealing with a vaccine.
Our local school system is going to try to start their hybrid re-opening plan on September 28, depending upon if virus cases in the area go down.
I predict new outbreaks will start up after only a few weeks of re-opening.