Day: November 4, 2024

Predictions On 119th Congress (2025-2027) Races

This author and blogger senses that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, since the Republicans have had a disastrous two years under Speaker Kevin McCarthy for nine months and then Speaker Mike Johnson, having the fewest accomplishments in legislation in more than a century.

While it is very difficult to project on 435 House races, it seems likely that some Republican seats in New York and California are likely to go to the Democrats, along with some gain of seats in the South, specifically in Alabama and Louisiana.

Likely, the majority will be, however, only on a few seats, as is now the situation.

The Senate will likely see a slight Republican majority, with the retirement of Joe Manchin, insuring that a Republican will replace him.

However, if all Democrats running for reelection, and those running to replace fellow Democrats, seem likely to win, that sets up a possible 50-50 Senate, which the Vice President would organize.

It depends on whether Republicans Ted Cruz in Texas, Rick Scott in Florida, and Deb Fischer in Nebraska can keep their seats. If any of them lose, we would see a Democratic controlled Senate.

If however, Democrats Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio lose their seats, the Republicans would have the majority of the Senate.