117th Congress (2021-2023)

The 118th Congress Opens: Prediction Of Worst Congress In Modern Times!

The 118th Congress has just been gaveled into session, and it seems clear that, at least in the House of Representatives, the nation is facing the worst two years of Congressional action in modern history!

After the very successful 117th Congress under President Joe Biden, while the Senate has one extra Democrat now (John Fetterman of Pennsylvania), the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives is on the way to disaster, as it now seems inevitable that the battle over whether Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of California is to become Speaker of the House is going to take multiple ballots for the first time in a century!

Frederick Gillett had to suffer through nine ballots before he was chosen to be Speaker in the 68th Congress, precisely a century ago!

There have been 14 Congresses that had a battle over who would be Speaker, all but 1923 being before the Civil War, with four being Congresses between 1847 and 1861; five being between 1819 and 1841; and four being between 1793 and 1811.

So this will be the 15th Congress out of 118 that has had this struggle over who would be Speaker.

The longest battles have been in the 34th Congress (1855-1857)—133 ballots; the 31st Congress (1849-1851)—63 ballots; the 36th Congress (1859-1861)—44 ballots; and the 16th Congress (1819-1821)—22 ballots.

As I write this mid afternoon, Kevin McCarthy has lost on the first and second ballots, and it seems as if this struggle for the Speakership will go on endlessly, and the feeling is that someone else, possibly Jim Jordan of Ohio, may end up as Speaker, even though he has supported McCarthy!

If such happens, the nation is is dangerous times, as Jordan was too close and supportive of Donald Trump, and has vehemently condemned the January 6 House investigation of the US Capitol Insurrection!

The 117th Congress Ends With Major Accomplishments, Despite Small Margins In Both Houses Of Congress!

The 117th Congress, with razor thin margins in the House of Representatives, and a 50-50 division in the US Senate, only the fourth time ever of an even split in the upper body, can be looked back upon as a Congress which accomplished a great deal, considering the situation.

The Democratic Party accomplished a great deal, and was able to conduct a thorough investigation of Donald Trump and the January 6 Insurrection at the US Capitol, with the great help of two courageous Republican House members, Liz Cheney of Wyoming, and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois.

Democracy prevailed, and this Congress did more than any since the 111th Congress (2009-2011) with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House on her first round in the job, and Barack Obama as President.

And it could be said that the 117th Congress actually accomplished more than the 111th Congress, and that the last Congress to have accomplished more was the 89th Congress (1965-1967) under Lyndon B. Johnson.

Raphael Warnock Wins Full Term In The Senate, Another Repudiation Of Donald Trump!

Senator Raphael Warnock won a full term in the US Senate tonight, overcoming the challenge of former football player and Republican nominee Herschel Walker, and repudiating Donald Trump once again!

With a 51-49 Democratic US Senate in the 118th Congress, the committees will have a Democratic edge in membership, and this will make legislation and other actions much easier to accomplish, than the 50-50 Senate that was in play in the present 117th Congress.

So this victory added to the very successful Midterm Elections of 2022 for the Democratic Party!

From The Greatest Modern Speaker Of The House To A Total Disaster In The Making!

Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (2007-2011) and (2019-2023) will go down as the greatest modern Speaker of the House, with so much accomplished under her leadership particularly in the first two years of the Barack Obama Presidency (the 111th Congress), and the first two years of the Joe Biden Presidency (the 117th Congress).

The only other Speakers of the previous 20th century who would rank on her level of greatness would be Sam Rayburn (1940-1947, 1949-1953, 1955-1961), and Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (1977-1987).

When Pelosi gives up the gavel on January 3, 2023, she will have been the fifth longest serving Speaker of the 54 individuals who have held that office, only outdone by Rayburn, Henry Clay, O’Neill, and John W. McCormack.

Now, sadly, a Republican will take over the Speakership of the 118th Congress, most likely Kevin McCarthy of California, who is a unmitigated disaster, totally subservient to the evil 45th President, Donald Trump, who is a Fascist authoritarian demagogue, who still threatens the survival of American democracy.

Nancy Pelosi Is The Greatest Elected Woman Leader In US History!

Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, California, is giving up her leadership of the Democratic Party in the lower chamber, as a result of the Republicans taking over as the majority by just a few members, basically a switch from the Democratic slim margin in the 117th Congress, to the Republican slim margin in the upcoming 118th Congress.

Pelosi will remain, however, as the representative of her district, and will contribute her expertise and skills to the new, younger generation leadership of the Democratic Party, led by New York Congressman Hakeem Jeffries.

Pelosi has served for 36 years, and has been a massive figure in the history of Congress.

Without a doubt, she is the greatest elected woman leader in US History, and has borne the burden of vicious personal attacks on her person and that of her husband.

She is truly a heroine for the ages, and was of great assistance to Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, but also came to the support, when needed, of Republican President George W. Bush.

Pelosi is irreplaceable, but Hakeem Jeffries, hopefully the future Speaker of the House in the 119th Congress (2025-2027) is certain to outshine the mediocre, self serving, traitor to the Constitution and rule of law that Kevin McCarthy represents, being beholden to Donald Trump, after rightly condemning him immediately after the US Capitol Insurrection on January 6, 2021.

McCarthy will be condemned in history for having been subservient to Donald Trump!

Turnover In Congress To Be Massive For The 118th Congress

There will be massive turnover in the 118th Congress, with many members retiring; some being defeated in primaries; and others running for another office.

The final totals will be determined after the Midterm Elections of 2022, but at this point, we have the following statistics:

38 Democrats and 27 Republicans will not be in their positions in the US House of Representatives in 2023.

6 Republicans and 1 Democrat will be leaving the US Senate in 2023.

5 Republicans and 1 Democrat who were House members passed away.

Others who are running for reeelection are, in some cases, likely to lose their seats.

So the makeup of the new 118th Congress will be dramatically different, at a higher rate of turnover than is normal!

Tenuous House Of Representatives And Senate Majorities Have Happened Before In Congress

In the era since since there were 48 states (1913) and 50 states (1959) and since, there have been several Congresses in which either the US House of Representatives or the US Senate have had razor thin margins in membership, similar to what is happening in the 117th Congress, with a Democratic lead of only six seats in the House and an even split (50-50) in the Senate.

In the US House of Representatives, we have had close margins in the following 7 Congresses:

65th Congress 1917-1919 215-214 6 others
72nd Congress 1931-1933 218-216 1 other
78th Congress 1943-1945 222-209 4 others
83rd Congress 1953-1955 221-213 1 other
106th Congress 1999-2001 223-211 1 other
107th Congress 2001-2003 221-212 2 others
117th Congress 2021-2023 222-212 1 vacancy

In the US Senate, we have had close margins in the following 11 Congresses:

66th Congress 1919-1921 49-47
70th Congress 1927-1929 48-46 1 other, 1 vacancy
72nd Congress 1931-1933 48-47 1 other
82nd Congress 1951-1953 49-47
83rd Congress 1953-1955 48-47 1 other
84th Congress 1955-1957 48-47 1 other
85th Congress 1957-1959 49-47
107th Congress 2001-2003 50-49 1 other
108th Congress 2003-2005 51-48 1 other
110th Congress 2007-2009 49-49 2 other
117th Congress 2021-2023 50-48 2 other

Notice that both houses of Congress have had tight margins in the 72nd Congress (1931-1933); the 83rd Congress (1953-1955); the 107th Congress (2001-2003); and the present 117th Congress (2021-2023)!

These elections occurred at the time of the worsening of the Great Depression; the beginning of the Eisenhower Administration; the time of the contentious Presidential Election of 2000; and the time of the controversial Presidential Election of 2020!

The decades of the 1950s and the 2000s saw the largest number of tenuous majorities, with four Congresses in the 1950s and three Congresses in the 2000s having such results!

A total of 14 Congresses have had at least one house with a tenuous margin!

Whether the present tenuous majorities in both houses of Congress will continue in 2022 and beyond is the big question!