119th Congress (2025-2027)

Guarantee Of Chaotic 119th Congress!

Ronald 1 Comment

The 119th Congress (2025-2027) is guaranteed to be chaotic, and might be worse in performance than the 118th Congress (2023-2025).

With the final count having finally been settled in the House of Representatives, there will be a total of 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, but since Matt Gaetz resigned, and Michael Waltz of Florida will be National Security Adviser, and Elise Stefanik of New York will be United Nations Ambassador, the actual balance for the first few months of the new year will be 217-215, until special elections fill those three seats.

This means any one Republican abandonment, or members absent for votes, and chaos will reign, and Democrats may gain the majority on some issues, and even, if there is opposition to the Speaker by a few Republicans, could lead to new elections for the House leadership.

Also, while the Senate now has 53 Republicans, there is a high likelihood that at least four or more Republican Senators will reject a number of Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointments.

The 118th Congress was reckless and chaotic enough, but now there will be fewer Republicans than in the last Congress in the lower chamber, and some Senators will be unwilling to bow to Donald Trump on some of his outrageous nominees for the Cabinet, and other actions by the 47th President when he takes the oath of office!

Predictions On 119th Congress (2025-2027) Races

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This author and blogger senses that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, since the Republicans have had a disastrous two years under Speaker Kevin McCarthy for nine months and then Speaker Mike Johnson, having the fewest accomplishments in legislation in more than a century.

While it is very difficult to project on 435 House races, it seems likely that some Republican seats in New York and California are likely to go to the Democrats, along with some gain of seats in the South, specifically in Alabama and Louisiana.

Likely, the majority will be, however, only on a few seats, as is now the situation.

The Senate will likely see a slight Republican majority, with the retirement of Joe Manchin, insuring that a Republican will replace him.

However, if all Democrats running for reelection, and those running to replace fellow Democrats, seem likely to win, that sets up a possible 50-50 Senate, which the Vice President would organize.

It depends on whether Republicans Ted Cruz in Texas, Rick Scott in Florida, and Deb Fischer in Nebraska can keep their seats. If any of them lose, we would see a Democratic controlled Senate.

If however, Democrats Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio lose their seats, the Republicans would have the majority of the Senate.

Prospects For Democratic Congress Improve Due To Kamala Harris Candidacy

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The prospects for a Democratic controlled 119th Congress (2025-2027) have been vastly improved by the Presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris, and her Vice Presidential running mate Tim Walz.

Things looked gloomy before Joe Biden decided to withdraw, but now the excitement over Harris and Walz have boosted the hopes for Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives, and maintain and maybe gain seats in the US Senate.

Public opinion polls show a boost in the candidacies of incumbent Democratic Senators all over the nation, and the prospects for gaining seats in the House in New York, Florida, and California seem promising.

And there are hopes that possibly three Republican Senators, who are not very popular, could lose their seats.

Rick Scott in Florida, Ted Cruz in Texas, and Josh Hawley in Missouri face tight races for now at least, from Debbie Mucarsel Powell, Collin Allred, and Lucas Kunce, respectively.

If at least one of these unpopular Senators were to lose, that would be a major boost for the Democrats.

Trump V US Supreme Court Case A “Mixed” Result!

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The case of Trump V US has finally been issued by the Supreme Court, and it is a disappointing decision, but despite strong criticism by many, it is a “mixed” decision, that allows for future prosecution.

It makes “official” acts of a President immune, but does not claim that all acts are official, and there are aspects of Donald Trump’s behavior around the Presidential Election Of 2020 that are clearly not protected.

So while some actions of Trump cannot be prosecutable due to the decision, the ability to move forward and prosecute Trump can only be prevented if Trump wins the Presidency again.

Otherwise, the actions around the Florida case of documents illegally at Mar A Lago, and the Georgia case of pressuring the Secretary of State to find votes to change the results, and some of the actions around January 6 can still be pursued in court.

The crucial action is to insure Donald Trump does not win the Presidential Election Of 2024, and that means the Democrats must do everything possible to insure victory, not only in the race for the White House, but also for the future 119th Congress!

Also, future Supreme Court and other judicial appointments are determined by who wins the White House, and the only way to reform the courts is more Democratic Presidential appointments, so another reason for the urgency to insure victory for the Democrats at all levels!

Some Reasons Why Donald Trump And Republicans Will Lose in 2024

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Despite conflicting public opinion polls, there are many reasons to believe why Donald Trump and the Republican Party are on the road to defeat in 2024!

Among them are the following:

If one uses Ronald Reagan’s argument in 1980, “Are you better off than you were years ago?”, and use it in reverse, most certainly, economically, the nation is far better than it was in 2020, by any economic statistic! The stock market is booming; unemployment is at a 50 year low; inflation is coming down; and more jobs have been created than under any modern President in a four year term!

Also, Donald Trump brags about ending Roe V Wade, and this ending of abortion rights has become a major motivator among the vast majority of women and the men who love them, and will motivate many voters to be sure to vote and get others to vote!

Donald Trump also tells Republicans to reject the strongest immigration bill in a generation, and the crisis on the border is worse, as a result, and it will reverberate on Republicans in the Fall. With various conservative groups backing the legislation, it can be used as a weapon against Trump in the upcoming election, and harm the party chances in Congress!

The Republican House of Representatives has been a disaster, leading to some Republicans quitting early, not wishing to hang around, and leaving the Republicans with just one vote more than a majority, subject to change at any time, if anyone in their slim majority resigns, dies, or is in the hospital for an extended period. And Speaker Mike Johnson is in danger of being the second Speaker to be removed in the same Congress. So the Democrats have a great issue as they get ready for the election, which should guarantee a Democratic majority in that chamber in the upcoming 119th Congress of 2025-2027!

Donald Trump being indicted on 91 counts in four cases is not going to help promote loyalty of Republicans, as already, there are indications that a substantial number did not want him to run, and instead supported Nikki Haley. The idea that independents or Democrats will vote for Trump is not realistic, and already, he has a record of never winning the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020!

With so many former Trump Administration officials refusing to support Trump this time around, since they see how dangerous he is on foreign policy, and his plans for a dictatorship, this will also strengthen the case for Joe Biden as a center of stability and democracy!

And with Trump saying the January 6 Insurrectionists are “hostages” that he would free from prison is not a way to win support or strengthen Republican prospects!

With all these factors, Democrats have the advantage, but have to be concerned about keeping support of African Americans, Hispanic-Latino Americans, Asian Americans, Arab-Muslim Americans, Jewish Americans, and the younger Generation Z first time voters.

So there is plenty of work still ahead!

A Major Turnover In 119th Congress To Occur!

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A major turnover is coming in the 119th Congress, which will meet from January 2025-January 2027.

Already, eight Senators and 43 House members are not running for reelection, and turnover by defeat is likely in many other cases.

Among the US Senators who are retiring are the following:

Mitt Romney of Utah
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Tom Carper of Delaware

At least 11 Democrats and 14 Republicans are leaving the House of Representatives.

Additionally, a few well known individuals ran for the Senate and have been eliminated, specifically Katie Porter and Barbara Lee in California, while Adam Schiff is on the way to likely Senate membership after ending up first in the California Senate primary.

Dean Phillips of Minnesota chose to challenge Joe Biden in a lost cause, and is leaving the House as a result.

Elissa Slotkin in Michigan; Alex Mooney in West Virginia; Colin Allred in Texas; Andy Kim in New Jersey; and Ruben Gallego in Arizona are among those leaving the House of Representatives to run for the US Senate seats in their states.

A lot more turnover is likely, as many other incumbents face the possibility of defeat this November.

The Way To A Democratic House Of Representatives Majority In The 119th Congress!

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With the Democratic Party only needing to gain a minimum of five seats in the House of Representatives in the Congressional Elections of 2024, some key points to make.

California, Florida and New York, three of the four largest Congressional delegations due to their large populations, have Republican members who won in 2022, but represent districts won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Partisan gerrymandering in both New York and Florida also were the key to Republicans winning a small majority of five seats, which has upended so much in the 118th Congress.

Now, with the Supreme Court backing a challenge to an Alabama reapportionment that denied African Americans fair representation, there is also a good chance of gaining a seat in that state, plus the possibility of the same gains in Texas, Florida, and a few other states that have undermined black or Latino representation based on their proportion of state populations.

With the 118th Congress unable to accomplish much under Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the odds are growing that the Democrats will win back control of the House, and by more than just a bare margin.

A major Joe Biden victory against Donald Trump and other MAGA Republicans could produce a second term of major movement forward, both in Congress and the White House!

Truman Vs The 80th Congress; Biden Vs The 118th House Of Representatives!

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75 years ago, President Harry Truman, looking like a “loser” to many observers, chose to use an attack strategy against the Republican 80th Congress (1947-1949), calling them the “Do Nothing” Congress, and gaining a nickname, “Give Them Hell Harry!”

Everyone underestimated him tremendously, and he staged a magnificent upset victory, winning a full term in the Presidency despite low public opinion polls at the time, defeating the clearcut favorite candidate, Republican Presidential nominee Thomas E. Dewey, and winning back control of both houses of Congress for the 81st Congress (1949-1951).

Now, President Joe Biden, who most observers never expected to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020, and to have the Democrats win the Senate along with the House of Representatives in both 2020 and keep the Senate in 2022, is being given a golden opportunity to run a campaign against the small margin Republican House of Representatives in the 118th Congress, and they are making it very easy by their disastrous tactics and public image!

So Joe Biden will run a Truman like campaign and give the Republican House “hell”, with all of his accomplishments in his first two years.

He has a great chance to win reelection, with a low unemployment rate, lowered inflation, and courageous leadership against Russia in Ukraine. Just as Truman took a strong stand against Russia in the Berlin Blockade Crisis of 1948, Biden is coming across strongly in the Ukraine Crisis!

And the odds of the House of Representatives going back to the Democrats is outstanding, and the Senate, while difficult, with Joe Biden on the same ticket, the odds increase of the continuation of a Democratic Senate for the 119th Congress (2025-2027)!

Nancy Pelosi Is The Greatest Elected Woman Leader In US History!

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Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, California, is giving up her leadership of the Democratic Party in the lower chamber, as a result of the Republicans taking over as the majority by just a few members, basically a switch from the Democratic slim margin in the 117th Congress, to the Republican slim margin in the upcoming 118th Congress.

Pelosi will remain, however, as the representative of her district, and will contribute her expertise and skills to the new, younger generation leadership of the Democratic Party, led by New York Congressman Hakeem Jeffries.

Pelosi has served for 36 years, and has been a massive figure in the history of Congress.

Without a doubt, she is the greatest elected woman leader in US History, and has borne the burden of vicious personal attacks on her person and that of her husband.

She is truly a heroine for the ages, and was of great assistance to Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, but also came to the support, when needed, of Republican President George W. Bush.

Pelosi is irreplaceable, but Hakeem Jeffries, hopefully the future Speaker of the House in the 119th Congress (2025-2027) is certain to outshine the mediocre, self serving, traitor to the Constitution and rule of law that Kevin McCarthy represents, being beholden to Donald Trump, after rightly condemning him immediately after the US Capitol Insurrection on January 6, 2021.

McCarthy will be condemned in history for having been subservient to Donald Trump!